Friday, November 10, 2006

CIS CHAMPIONSHIP SATURDAY: WILL MANITOBA RIDE HERD ON THE SUDDEN UNDERDOG U OF S?

It's conference championship Saturday in Canadian university football tomorrow, and the diehards at cisfootball.org have chipped in to tee up each of the four games. Presenting: the Canada West Hardy Trophy game, featuring the Saskatchewan Huskies (7-2) at the Manitoba Bisons (9-0), to be aired at 4:30 ET on The Score.

Board regular Cyrus, a U of S supporter, took the time to share his thoughts.

When Manitoba has the ball:
Bisons QB John Makie, going by his stats (14 TD, 2 INT in regular season) creates the impression of a good manager -- not a big scrambler, not a gunner, just a competent QB who doesn't make mistakes. Cyrus figures Makie, rather than trying to the deep ball, will "test Saskatchewan's linebackers over the middle," since their "pass defence has at times been a question mark this season."

The U of S only made an interception once every 44 attempts (6 in 264 pass plays), the second-lowest in Can West. Makie's been playing mistake-free, and the Bisons mix it up with Karim Lowen and Matt Henry, Saskatchewan might have trouble getting off the field and letting its own offence play ball control (always important given the freak weather conditions you get in November).

Cyrus notes U of S also had trouble making that other big game-changing play in their 35-16 regular-season loss to the Bisons: "In their regular-season matchup with Manitoba, the Huskies did not put much pressure on Makie. In fact, they didn't register a single sack. DEs Brian Guebert and Chris Eckert have totalled 15 sacks between them so far this season. It will be important for them to pressure Makie and disrupt Manitoba's passing game."

When Saskatchewan has the ball:
Cyrus: "The Huskies will need to pass enough to open up their running game... (they) cannot expect to be one-dimensional on offence against the Bisons... Huskie faithful are encouraged by what they saw from QB Bret Thompson in his performance in the Can West semifinal vs. UBC (where he was 9-of-10 for 133 yards, creating enough of a pass threat for the Huskies to rush for 315). A similar effort, this week, from Thompson would give the Dogs the opportunity to score enough points to have a chance to win.

"Lastly, Saskatchewan needs to avoid turnovers. This has, at times, been a problem for the Huskies."

The Bisons had the tightest run defence by far in Can West, allowing a mere 90 yards a game, 50 fewer than Saskatchewan. This is a program which put a D-lineman in the NFL (Israel Idonije of the Bears), and the current front seven is very good, with national defensive player of the year candidate, linebacker Cory Huclack, playing behind a D-line that is one of Canada's two or three best with Simon Patrick, Justin Cooper and Justin Shaw. Jonathan Wade is the least publicized of that unit but probably the best story -- he's dedicated the season to his brother, Dylan, who died of lymphoma last summer at age 36. (The Winnipeg Free Press had a good article on this the other day.)

In the regular-season meeting, U of S had 161 yards rushing, but that's a little misleading since 62 of it came from Thompson, presumably on broken plays.

Special teams:
Cyrus: "The Huskies made two huge errors on special teams in their regular season matchup with the Bisons (allowing Manitoba to recover the game's opening kickoff, and a botched punt attempt that resulted in a Bison touchdown). Having said that, special teams has been a strength for the Huskies... Braden Suchan is the conference's top punter (39.2-yard average) and is a capable field goal kicker as well. Leighton Heron has resumed punt return duties in Saskatchewan's last two games. He provides experience and reliable hands in that role."

Manitoba hasn't needed the kicking game a whole lot -- Peter Scouras missed 12 of his 21 field-goal tries in the regular season and his season long was 42 yards. (If not for Cameron Takacs, you could say, "Who do they think they are, Laval?") The Bisons had a punt returned for a touchdown in last week's game against the Regina Rams.

Environment Canada gameday forecast: Mix of sun and cloud, high -2C

Last Hardy Trophy for each: Saskatchewan won 2002, '04 and '05; Manitoba last won in 2001

Sager's call: Manitoba 32, Saskatchewan 30

Other finals: Atlantic, Ontario, Quebec
Previous week's picks: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, OUA first round & Semifinal Saturday
Related: Explaining the Manitoba/Saskatchewan corollary (Nov. 5)

That's all for now. Send your thoughts to neatesager@yahoo.ca.

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