So it stands to reason -- scratch that, there is no reason here, just a gut feeling -- either the Queen's Golden Gaels or Western Mustangs will win on the road in tomorrow's OUA playoff games, against No. 3 seed McMaster (6-2) and No. 4 seed Windsor (6-2), respectively. Given a choice between backing either underdog, almost all CIS fans would take the Mustangs in a heartbeat. You know my prejudices, of course.
QUEEN'S GOLDEN GAELS (4-4) vs. McMASTER MARAUDERS (6-2)
Saturday, 2 p.m. (online at CFRC.ca)
Everything you're about to read from this point on should be prefaced by the knowledge that Mac is an odds-on, near slam-dunk favourite, with a 75-80% chance of winning. Still, this is a blog -- there is no crediblity to lose by making a prediction that's straight off the Ork cloud.
Namely, Queen's is a lot more capable of winning this game than some people believe.
Where's the gut feeling coming from? After all, coach Pat Sheahan's Gaels are 0-6 against Mac since returning to the OUA for football in 2001, including a 37-5 loss at Ivor Wynne Stadium just four weeks ago. As well, the track record for No. 6 seeds is, uh, not good. Since '01, they're 0-5, losing by an average score of 44-18.
The Marauders did stumble in losing back-to-back games a couple weeks ago, but QB Adam Archibald, slotback Jon Behie and defensive back Jesse Card were all dinged-up then. Mac's defence is much better when Card (three INTs against Guelph last week) is in there. Isn't Queen's is going to have to get a great day out of QB Dan Brannagan and his favourite (sometimes only) receivers, Rob Bagg and Brad Smith, to have a fighting chance?
It's long shot, but Queen's can win ugly if they do the following:
- Come out at least plus-2 in the turnover battle;
- Get some big field position-changing plays, either from the receivers or Bagg on special teams;
- On defence, contain Mac's running game, keep the Marauders from big pass plays, and put Archibald in long-yardage situations.
It won't be easy, but with all apologies to Bruce Cockburn, nothing worth havin' comes without some kind of fight. That last point is dicey. Archibald has the bazooka arm to hit the big pass plays -- hence that CIS-leading 10.6 yards per attempt -- but he hasn't improved his accuracy, something that noted here back in the off-season.
Archibald also threw nine picks in just 135 attempts this season. He's going up against a well-coached Queen's bunch that is capable of forcing turnovers (11 picks against just nine TD passes allowed) and was only one of two OUA teams to hold opponents below 50% passing this season.
From here, it looks like Gaels defensive co-ordinator Pat Tracey has probably done one of his best coaching jobs since taking over the unit in 2001. Queen's lost linebacker Ian Hazlett early on and has played good, bend-but-don't-break defence nearly each week, with Adam Ross in stepping up when Hazlett was unavailable.
That was a hallmark of the Gaels defence when Bob Mullen, Tracey's predecessor, coached the defence; teams often didn't get much off them without having better athletes. Every so often, they would frustrate and flummox an arguably better team into beating themselves. That's pretty much what Tracey's troops have to do this time.
Considering some of Mac's recent struggles -- falling big-time behind early at home against Laurier, fading away in the second half against Western -- it looks they can be thrown off their game. It's a long shot,
It's the longest of long shots, but it's about time the Gaels caught a break in these games. In 2003, they lost an epic game to the Marauders after Jesse Lumsden ran a kickoff all the way back in the final minute and Queen's kicker Chris Napoli connected with the upright in overtime; way back in '91, current Mac rookie head coach Stefan Ptaszek played on the Laurier team who made a big second-half comeback against Queen's in the Churchill Bowl national semi-final. The luck has to change some time, right?
Sure, the reasoning here is flimsy and specious. But hope is good thing, right? The Call: Queen's 23-21
Saturday, 2 p.m. (The Score)
Judging by the tenor of the discussions at the always informative cisfootball.org, Western fans seem to have curbed their enthusiasm for this Mustangs crew. Western's been inconsistent all year, and now they face a road playoff game with a first-time starter at quarterback. Veteran QB Michael Faulds has been ruled out with an injured hand. Between head coach Larry Haylor (who could be coaching his last game) and his successor Greg Marshall, Western's coaching staff should have a QB ready, whether it's backup Hayden Marks or the more athletic Mark Howard, who was moved over to defence this season.
Windsor, who's hosting a playoff game for the first time in 30 years, is a little like Concordia in the Quebec conference in Manitoba in Can West. They're not on those programs' level, but coach Mike Morencie's team, like those two squads I just named, began the season unranked and were slow to win people over. Also like the Stingers and Bisons, they're not a traditional power that gets a lot of media attention, like Laval or Saskatchewan.
That win last week over Laurier opened some eyes. People are saying, "OK, we get it; Windsor's semi-halfway for real." Their M.O. seems to be that they're not what you think they are. Defensively, Windsor's sometimes like those Bud Grant Minnesota Vikings teams back in the '70s, where they sometimes have 15 or 16 guys in the huddle; they've confused a lot of teams with shifting looks and personnel packages. That doesn't bode well for a Western team with an inexperienced passer and no real game-breaking receiver.
Offensively, the Lancers are supposed to be all about the much ballyhooed Thunder and Lightning backfield with record-setting running back Daryl Stephenson and the change-up guy, Nick Romain. Stephenson's a workhorse, but the man who really makes Windsor's offence purr is receiver Glenn MacKay, who had three TDs in both of their biggest wins (Laurier last week and Queen's back on Sept. 16).
Thing is, Windsor is wise enough not to overuse their home run threat of MacKay running a deep route after QB Dan Lumley carries out a play-action fake (Lumley may do this better than any other current QB in the OUA, by the way). They faithfully stick to the run, waiting until they can pull the defensive halfs and safety up in run support and find MacKay crossing through the vacated middle, or running a deep vertical route in 1-on-1 coverage.
That selective use is reflected in his stats; MacKay only had 32 catches, but he's averaged 24 yards per catch and his nine TD receptions are second only to Regina's Chris Bauman.
If that formula -- run, then play-action -- sounds familiar, it's the formula Haylor used in Western's peak years. It's kind of a tribute that it might be used against his team in his final game. The Call: Windsor 30-20
Last week: 9-4 (69%)
Season to date: 76-21 (78%)
Related:
Bleeding Tricolour (Oct. 23)
That's all for now. Send your thoughts to neatesager@yahoo.ca.
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