Friday, October 27, 2006

CIS FOOTBALL PICKS WEEK 9

Here's some Uneducated Guesses on how Week 9 of the Canadian Interuniversity Sport football season might shake out, or more likely, how it won't shake out.

Since the OUA is the only conference beginning its playoffs this weekend -- Queen's-McMaster and Western-Windsor tomorrow afternoon -- that's been covered in a separate column.

HIGHLIGHTS
  • The Regina Rams securing a playoff berth with a win on the road over Alberta
  • One of the country's two unbeatens -- that would be Laval or Manitoba -- suffering their first loss heading into the playoffs

CANADA WEST

No. 2 MANITOBA BISONS (7-0) vs. BRITISH COLUMBIA THUNDERBIRDS (4-3)
Friday, 10 p.m. (all times Eastern)
For the sake of clarity, Manitoba had better take it easy and rest their starters, so UBC can win the game and avoid a 3-way tiebreaker for the final two Can West playoff berths.

Coach Brian Dobie's Bisons are assured home-field advantage for the conference playoffs, and ipso facto, for the Vanier Cup, since it's being played in Western Canada for the first time. Logically, you'd expect the U of M to take this one easy, since they've got first place sewn up and could also end up facing UBC in a playoff game next week.

UBC running back Chris Ciezki needs just 59 yards to edge out Windsor's Daryl Stephenson for the CIS rushing title. It's been a while since a non-OUA player was the country's most prolific ground gainer. The Call: UBC 31-24, assuming Manitoba rests their regulars; WINNER: Manitoba 43-20

(UPDATE: Ciezki was a late scratch due to to an injury.)

SIMON FRASER CLAN (0-6-0-1) vs. CALGARY DINOS (1-6)
Saturday, 3 p.m.
C'est la vie
for Blake Nill's rebuilding Dinos program. True freshman quarterback Dalin Tollestrup has dazzled at times, but after tomorrow's season finale, they likely won't have him on the field again until 2009 since he's slated to take a two-year Mormon mission.

From here, it at least looks like the U of C is headed in a somewhat positive direction. Simon Fraser seems more of an enigma. The Call: Calgary 35-21; WINNER: Calgary 39-7

REGINA RAMS (3-4) vs. No. 10 ALBERTA GOLDEN BEARS (4-3)
Saturday, 9 p.m.
Wonder if the Bears are aware that a really lopsided loss might end up clinching a playoff berth for them?

If Regina wins, and UBC loses to Manitoba tonight, then there will be three 4-4 teams tied for the final two playoff spots. The tiebreaker, since no one beat the other two teams, is point differential in the head-to-head matchups:

  • UBC is plus-11 (one-point loss to Alberta, 12-point win over Regina)
  • Alberta is plus-1
  • Regina is minus-12

If Alberta wins, they finish third no matter what UBC does, since they beat them earlier in the season. A win by UBC assures them a playoff spot.

Now the tricky scenario. Regina can actually finish third. If they beat the Bears by 24 points or more -- and given the Rams' offence led by prolific passer Teale Orban, anything is possible -- then they finish third due to a point differential of plus-12. Alberta would get the fourth and final playoff spot since they beat UBC (on a last-second single, no less).

The Rams seem hard to stop, right now. Orban (2,390 yards, 23 TDs) has a shot at the conference records for most yards and TDs in a single season, which is really kind of amazing seeing as he never gets to play against the Regina defence.

Alberta, meantime, is ill-equipped to get in a scoring battle with the Rams. The Call: Regina 31-29; WINNER: Regina 36-25

QUEBEC

No. 1 LAVAL ROUGE ET OR (7-0) vs. No. 6 MONTREAL CARABINS (5-2)
Saturday, 12 noon (RDS)
Seems like ancient history now, but back in Week 2, the Carabins nearly upset Laval at PEPS Stadium, with the Rouge et Or prevailing on a late touchdown. Montreal's been a tough team to figure out for someone who relies on game reports and statistical summaries; consistency has not been their strong suit.

After noticing that the Carabins gave up 263 yards last week in a narrow win over Sherbrooke -- on just 19 attempts -- one wonders what Rouge et Or passer Benoit Groulx might be able to do if the Carabins have a couple breakdowns in the secondary. The Call: Laval 26-17; WINNER: Montreal 7-2

BISHOP'S GAITERS (1-6) vs. McGILL REDMEN (3-4)
Saturday, 1 p.m.
Redmen QB Matt Connell has put up numbers that are almost Hec Crighton candidate-worthy -- 1,959 yards passing, 61.5% completion percentage -- considering that he plays on a team that has to throw on nearly every down. Even though the defence knows what's coming, he's only been sacked eight times.

Speaking of stats, Gaiters tailback Jamall Lee comes into the game with a 42-yard lead over Montreal's Joseph MrouƩ (a graduate of Ottawa's Myers Riders minor football program) for the conference rushing title. Concordia's Andrew Hamilton is 109 yards behind Lee. That gives the Gaiters some incentive after their playoff hopes were dashed by a loss to Mount Allison last weekend. The Call: McGill 30-27; WINNER: McGill 14-0

No. 4 CONCORDIA STINGERS (6-1) vs. SHERBROOKE VERT ET OR (2-4)
Saturday, 4 p.m.
Sherbrooke, who like Eastern Townships rival Bishop's has had a disappointing season, gets to finish with the same team they started against. Stingers kicker Warren Kean, coming off his nine field goal-day last week, is four points ahead of Laval botteur Cameron Takacs for the conference scoring title. He's also four field goals away from former Manitoba (and current Hamilton Ticats) kicker Jamie Boreham's single-season CIS mark of 23. The Call: Concordia 33-14; WINNER: Sherbrooke 29-15

ATLANTIC

ST. FRANCIS XAVIER X-MEN vs. SAINT MARY'S HUSKIES
Friday, 5 p.m. (The Score)
It took seven weeks, but rookie SMU head coach Steve Sumurah finally decided on a QB, naming Erik Glavic the starter earlier this week. Glavic's a big guy, 6-foot-6, and he can scoot (122 rushing yards last week), so comparisons with McMaster quarterback-slotback Jon Behie are perhaps somewhat inevitable.

As for Sumurah's squad, way back in the season preview it was suggested that SMU "(m)ay be this year's version of the team that has a so-so 4-4 or 5-3 regular season and then finds something that works in the playoffs." That cancelled game against Mount A means they can only get to three wins, but the point is the obvious: SMU seems to made more progress than their Atlantic rivals, with the exception of Mount Allison, which of course had much farther to come.

The X-Men seem to be limping, literally, having battled injuries all year. They've lost four straight and haven't played a game since Oct. 14. Winner of this game hosts the Atlantic semi-final on Nov. 4.

This is the first time The Score has gone to the Maritimes for a broadcast (some of us, alas, have to work in offices where CIS fans are fewer and farther between). The Call: Saint Mary's 37-15; WINNER: Saint Mary's 32-0

ACADIA AXEMEN (4-3) vs. MOUNT ALLISON (2-4)
Saturday, 1 p.m.
Mount A, now that it has a playoff game to prepare for, should give the Axemen a good game. Acadia coach Jeff Cummins, whose team is coming off a 34-7 loss to Laval, will have to decide how long to play his starters in a game that won't affect his team's position in the standings.
Acadia's Cale Inglis comes in trailing Mount A's T.J. Williams by 36 yards in the rushing race. The Call: Acadia 27-24; WINNER: Acadia 34-15

(Weekly tally: 6-4)


Last week:

9-4 (69%)
Season to date: 76-21 (78%)

Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 & 8

That's all for now. Send your thoughts to neatesager@yahoo.ca.

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