CIS FOOTBALL PICKS, WEEK 5

Here's some Uneducated Guesses on how Week 5 of the Canadian Interuniversity Sport football season might shake out, or more likely, how it won't shake out.

HIGHLIGHTS

• The U of T coming thisclose to ending its epic losing streak.
• The Windsor Lancers not only knocking off Western in front of a Mustangs homecoming crowd, but doing so decisively.
• Acadia to bounce back from last week's collapse with a road win at St. FX.
• The Regina Rams to be road warriors against UBC.

FEATURED GAMES

U OF T VARSITY BLUES (0-4) vs. YORK LIONS (0-4)
Saturday, 2 p.m. (The Score; all times Eastern)
What better time for the Varsity Blues to end the 37-game losing streak than on national television against York, the school that set the record for CIS football futility in the late '80s and '90s? Unfortunately for U of T, it's still way too prone to giving up the big play on defence. York's offence isn't very good, but should pull this out. The Call: York 28-27.

WINDSOR LANCERS (3-1) vs. WESTERN MUSTANGS (2-2)
Saturday, 2 p.m.
Back in the day, a coach told this author, "You never pretend to know what's going on inside another football team." That said, last week against Laurier, Western looked like a fragmented football team: Bad tackling, penalties, dodgy playcalling, you name it. Maybe they get it sorted out this week. Whichever team sorts out its running game -- both have been average at best on the ground the past couple weeks -- will probably win this one, but the Lancers also have the better passing game, with Bryan Dufour and Glenn MacKay emerging as big-play receivers. Windsor's defence should also gobble up a couple interceptions against Western QB Michael Faulds, who has been forcing things out of apparent frustration. Look for Windsor to spoil another team's homecoming. The Call: Windsor 30-19.

#1 LAVAL ROUGE ET OR (3-0) vs. #9 SHERBROOKE VERT ET OR (2-1)
Saturday, 7 p.m. (RDS)
The feeling here is Sherbrooke has narrowed the gap on the other two French-language programs, but considering Laval has won the past three matchups by a combined 152-30, the Vert et Or have a long way to go. Laval is still sporadic on offence and is settling for way too many field goal tries, but its defence will shepherd them through. The Call: Laval 30-13.

QUÉBEC

McGILL REDMEN (1-2) vs. #8 MONTRÉAL CARABINS (1-2)
Saturday, 1 p.m.
The Carabins' streak of 10 quarters without an offensive touchdown should end against an leaky McGill defence. McGill's running game remains in absentia, which will catch up to them against a fast Carabins defence. The Call: Montréal 26-7.

#6 CONCORDIA STINGERS (3-0) vs. BISHOP'S GAITERS (1-2)
Saturday, 1 p.m.
The Stingers will likely be 5-0 heading into their Oct. 15 trip to Laval. This week, heavy favourite Concordia needs to develop some confidence in their running game, which managed just 75 yards against St. FX last week. The Call: Concordia 29-7.

ATLANTIC

ACADIA AXEMEN (2-1) vs. ST. FRANCIS XAVIER X-MEN (2-1)
Saturday, 1 p.m. (Eastlink)
Harder to tout the X-Men now that their deep threat receiver, Bryan Pozzobon, is out with an injured hamstring. Unless X can grind down Acadia with its running game led by Marvin McCooty, Acadia will win in a high-scoring game, barring some nasty Nova Scotia weather. This one probably decides home-field advantage for the Atlantic final. The Call: Acadia 38-31.

SAINT MARY'S HUSKIES (0-3) vs. MOUNT ALLISON MOUNTIES (0-3)
Saturday, 1 p.m.
The AUS is still wide open for Saint Mary's to turn it around in the second half, but they need to put Mount A away early before the Mounties start thinking upset. The Call: Saint Mary's 34-17.

CANADA WEST

REGINA RAMS (1-2) vs. UBC THUNDERBIRDS (1-2)
Friday, 10 p.m.
Regina's been a good road team the past two years; you have to wonder about UBC's mental toughness after last week's last-second loss to Saskatchewan. Another knock on the Thunderbirds is that they haven't been enough of a ball-control team, and have allowed QB Blake Smelser to be sacked 10 times in the first three weeks. If Regina plays some defence and keeps UBC tailback Chris Cieski from taking over, they should win. Rams quarterback Teale Orban has also thrown 95 passes this season without an interception, which is fairly impressive considering he's played two good defences, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. The Call: Regina 34-30.

#2 SASKATCHEWAN HUSKIES (4-0) vs. CALGARY DINOS (0-3)
Friday, 9 p.m.
Not much to say here, other than the U of S defence will be looking for a bounce-back week heading into next week's showdown against the undefeated Manitoba Bisons. Calgary's stellar rookie QB, Dalin Tollestrup, is going to take some lumps. The Call: Saskatchewan 38-10.

#10 ALBERTA GOLDEN BEARS (2-2) vs. SIMON FRASER CLAN (0-3)
Sunday, 10 p.m.
It came up this week at cisfootball.org: Is SFU (outscored 182-30 so far) on pace to be the worst Can West team in recent memory? Alberta running back Tendayi Jozzy should get to do plenty of stat-padding as he vies to become the first non-OUA player in several years to lead the country in rushing.

ONTARIO

WATERLOO WARRIORS (1-3) vs. #7 LAURIER GOLDEN HAWKS (3-1)
Saturday, 2 p.m. (Rogers tape delay in Waterloo region, 8 p.m.)
Laurier's simply too deep and too well-coached to give the Warriors much of a chance at an upset. By the way, can this be called a cross-town rivalry when the teams actually share a home field? The Call: Laurier 31-11.

GUELPH GRYPHONS (1-3) vs. #5 OTTAWA GEE-GEES (3-1)
Saturday, 8 p.m. (Rogers in Ottawa area)
It needs to be said: Ottawa really hasn't lived up to their pre-season billing, but it's had enough talent to win on talent alone. Don't be surprised at all if Guelph is in this one until late in the fourth quarter. Ottawa knows that if push comes to shove, though, that Kevin Kelly-led offensive line will open enough holes for their big back, Davie Masson, who has quietly become the OUA's leading rusher. The Call: Ottawa 32-22.

QUEEN'S GOLDEN GAELS (2-2) vs. #3 McMASTER MARAUDERS (4-0)
Sunday, 2 p.m. (The Score)
Yours truly is a diehard, but plans to take a pass on this one -- after last week's loss, the Gaels and myself need a break. Queen's has a good enough defence to keep them in the game, but their offensive line won't be able to handle Mac's force unit. Mac quarterback Adam Archibald (57% completions this year, compared to barely 50% in '05) is steadily improving under new head coach, Stefan Ptaszek, and that factor should swing this one to the Marauders. The Call: McMaster 28-17.

Last week: 12-1 (92.3%)
Season: 39-7 (84.7%)
Closest call last week: McMaster 32-20 over Windsor (predicted score: 31-21)

Related:
Laval Star's Kicker, And Western Puts Its Foot In Its Mouth (Sept. 24)
Gaels Find Their Waterloo... All Roads Point To Western (Sept. 24)
CIS Football Picks, Week 4 (Sept. 21)

Back with more later. Send your thoughts to neatesager@yahoo.ca.