CIS FOOTBALL PICKS: SEMIFINAL SATURDAY

Here's some Uneducated Guesses on how Week 10 of the Canadian Interuniversity Sport football season might shake out, or more likely, how it won't shake out.

The way this CIS season has gone, it seems like the best way to enter into a set of predictions is Semifinal Saturday is to pick a pair of road teams to win.

No road team has won a conference semifinal game since 2003, when Laurier and Alberta each did, so the law of averages would say road teams are due. (From 2001 through '03, seven road teams won semifinal games.)

Which two? By simple process of elimination, teams that had a bye week seem safe, so by the rationale the two home teams in Ontario, Ottawa and Laurier, should be all right, as should Can West second seed Saskatchewan, who had a week to rest up while their playoff opponent, the UBC Thunderbirds, played three games in 10 days.

Looking east of Ontario, Laval and Acadia seem pretty safe, St. FX hasn't shown it can beat Saint Mary's...

... which leaves us two upset picks: the fourth-place Regina Rams over top-ranked Manitoba in Can West and the Montreal Carabins over Concordia in the other Quebec semifinal.

Is that where this is headed? Not necessarily. Way to put it all on the line there, Sager.

ONTARIO

QUEEN'S GOLDEN GAELS (5-4) vs. No. 3 OTTAWA GEE-GEES (7-1)
Saturday, 1 p.m. (CFRC.ca, all times Eastern)
Queen's wins if: Ibid., see last week. Pat Sheahan's Gaels, in an OUA semi for the first time since '03, pretty much have to follow last week's formula: Win the turnover battle, perform better in the kicking and return games, get some field position-changing plays on special teams and make Ottawa QB Josh Sacobie become a dink-and-dunk passer -- no big chunks of yardage to the Gee-Gees offence. It's a long shot, that's for sure. Gaels QB Dan Brannagan had his poorest game of the season -- 11 of 29, 59 yards -- against Ottawa on Oct. 7, although Queen's has patched up its pass offence fairly well since then.
Ottawa wins if: They stick with what got them here. Queen's is a decided underdog and Mac was ripe for the taking, but Ottawa doesn't have a weak link on either the offensive or defensive line. Sacobie also seems to be a hard QB to fluster; his ability to make plays on the move probably hurts a Queen's secondary that has to cover a very good crew of Gee-Gees pass catchers in Adam Nicolson, David Crane, Wayne Desmond and Matt Edgeworth. It's pick your poison for Queen's defence, which has carried the team much of the season.
The Call: Ottawa 27-20
WINNER: Ottawa 23-10

No. 8 WESTERN MUSTANGS (6-3) vs. No. 7 LAURIER GOLDEN HAWKS (6-2)
Saturday, 1 p.m. (The Score)
Western wins if: The Mustangs play mistake-free football and turn it into a low-scoring, field-position game. Their offensive line and defence have played better in the past two weeks, meaning they should wilt over the final two-thirds of the game like they did against Laurier Sept. 23. Still, calling a road win for a team that's undecided between two quarterbacks, Mark Howard and Hayden Marks, seems kind of radical.
Laurier wins if: It depends on the Hawks' health -- their leading rusher, Ryan Lynch, and one of their best defenders, David Montoya, are both nicked-up. Still, Laurier was good enough to outlast Western in the first meeting despite being unable to pass the football at all without their starting QB (something Western knows a thing or two). If Laurier's defence takes the big play away from the Mustangs, they should be fine. OUA sack leader Yannick Carter will pose a tougher challenge for Western's blockers than any of Windsor's defenders. Besides, Laurier is probably better with handling big games at this point.
The Call: Laurier 24-20
WINNER: Laurier 20-15

QUEBEC

McGILL REDMEN (4-4) vs. No. 2 LAVAL ROUGE ET OR (7-1)
Saturday, 12:30 p.m.
McGill wins if: Hey, they did put a scare into Laval for a half in the regular-season meeting. Laval's defence should be better prepared and McGill, for all of the threat posed by QB Matt Connell and his favourite receiver, Greg Hetherington, is too one-dimensional on offence.
Laval wins if: Glenn Constantin's team shortens the game and abjures pass-wackiness. With a quarterback such as Benoît Groulx (conference-record 2,422 records), there's temptation to try to pile up a score, but a more controlled offence is in Laval's best interests when they're playing at home and have less to lose. Tailback Pierre-Luc Yao needs to get a lot of touches this week.
The Call: Laval 38-21
WINNER: Laval 52-0

No. 6 MONTREAL CARABINS (6-2) vs. No. 5 CONCORDIA STINGERS (6-2)
Saturday, 12:30 p.m. (RDS)
Montreal wins if: The Carabins can turn this one into a greasy game -- plenty of sacks, turnovers, and two-and-outs. Montreal's trio of Simon Ouellette, Martin Gagné and Mathieu Brossard were 1-2-3 in the Quebec loop in sacks, and if the Carabins can pressure Stingers QB Scott Syvret without having to bring extra pash rushers, they have a chance to win in a low-scoring defensive contest.
Concordia wins if: Their defence, with Sammy Okpro and Patrick Donovan, makes a big statement before Montreal's D does. Concordia needs some extra jolt in this one, since they're back on their heels a little after two losses sandwiched around a marathon overtime game against Saint Mary's. It's not unheard for CIS teams to lose momentum in late October/early November, especially since their practice routine gets disrupted by players taking midterms and having major course work due. Again, this corner only goes off what vibe it can pick up from the papers and from the stat sheets (that's half the fun in trying to pick each week), and it's worth wondering if Concordia really lost momentum after that overtime loss to Laval last month.
The Call: Montreal 17-15
WINNER: Concordia 23-3

ATLANTIC

MOUNT ALLISON MOUNTIES (2-5) vs. No. 10 ACADIA AXEMEN (5-3)
Saturday, 12 noon (Eastlink)
Mount A wins if: Let's level, Mounties coach Steve LaLonde has done a good job getting the Mounties back on the path to relevance. Acadia would really have to play poorly to mess this up. Mount A's Triplets on offence -- Kelly Noel, Gary Ross and T.J. Williams -- make a lot of plays, but they don't play defence.

Acadia wins if: Quarterback Chris Judd and the offence can move the ball more consistently; one rap on them is they've been a little too peaks-and-valleys in the Annapolis Valley.
The Call: Acadia 26-10
WINNER: Acadia 16-6

ST. FRANCIS XAVIER X-MEN (2-5) vs. SAINT MARY'S HUSKIES (3-4)
Saturday, 12 noon
St. FX wins if: Could X turn it around after losing 32-zip last week? It's not impossible -- if QB Justin Connors can find his top receiver, Bryan Pozzobon, early and often. X's defence needs to make some plays after giving 226 yards on the ground last week.
SMU wins if: It's tempting to type "they show up" since X hasn't done much of that in the second half of the season. Saint Mary's is presumably sticking with Erik Glavic at quarterback, and if it can get the ball on the perimeter with his running and passing, X is in for a long day in the south end of Halifax.
The Call: SMU 35-10
WINNER: SMU 24-6

CANADA WEST

No. 9 REGINA RAMS (4-4) vs. No. 1 MANITOBA BISONS (8-0)
Saturday, 2 p.m.
Regina wins if: Well, Frank McCrystal's Rams are probably better off is high, just not basketball high. Three times in the past six years the No. 4 Can West seed has knocked off the first-place team. Regina needs a hot start from record-setting QB Teale Orban and perhaps a major breakdown by Manitoba's offence or special teams; if they can get up early, it might cause doubts to spread through the Manitoba ranks.
Manitoba wins if: Grind down Regina's defence and limit how many possessions the Rams get. QB John Makie (14 TD passes to just two interceptions) has been quietly efficient and Karim Lowen and Matt Henry give Manitoba arguably the country's best 1-2 rushing combination. If they keep Orban on the sideline with his helmet off, it will help.
The Call: Manitoba 29-26
WINNER: Manitoba 44-29

UBC THUNDERBIRDS (4-4) vs. No. 4 SASKATCHEWAN HUSKIES (6-2)
Saturday, 2:30 p.m.
UBC wins if: They find some kind of fountain of youth before going to Saskatoon. The Thunderbirds seem to have flown off course after playing three games in 10 days to finish out the regular season. Running back Chris Ciezki is questionable with an injury. UBC's next most productive running back is Derek Townsend, who had a 78-yard run earlier this year -- almost 70% of his season's total.
U of S wins if: Nothing sexy for Brian Towriss' crew, but if a week off and the prospect on being back at Griffiths Stadium in 3 weeks for the Vanier Cup can't reenergize the Green Dogs, what can? The Huskies found ways to lose two games, but if their defence, with guys such as DB Dylan Barker, can make UBC one-dimensional, this shouldn't be an overly difficult win.
The Call: U of S 31-24
WINNER: U of S 35-16

(UPDATE: The Saskatoon Star-Phoenix is reporting that U of S o-linemen Michael Loos and Tim West have been ruled out with injuries.)

(So yes, that's only one road team. But take heart, I've been a wrong a lot lately.)

Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 & OUA first round

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