The Infamous Book of Unwritten Rules

People have tried to put together lists of unwritten rules for various sports ever since the term came into sports culture. Writing a list of unwritten rules (ignore the obvious irony) has often sparked serious debate among those involved in sports over what should be expected of athletes, coaches, fans, the front office and owners in specific situations. These rules and controversies vary from sport to sport, but in team sports there is one that is generally universally excepted.

If you're playing in a game that is useless for you, but means something for your opponents and other teams in the league, you play a full squad.

If you don't know which event I'm talking about yet, last night Toronto FC won the Voyageurs Cup after beating a Montreal "B" squad 6-1. Toronto went into the game needing at least a four goal win to prevent Vancouver from taking home the Voyageurs Cup. Montreal had lost every game in the tournament up to this point and had nothing at stake (except the apparently irrelevant factors of dignity and pride).

Last night's performance from the Montreal Impact showed a lack of respect for the Voyageurs Cup, and Canadian soccer. Montreal's 2008 Voyageurs Cup victory was considered by many supporters to be their greatest moment in club history. It also became the stepping stone for a successful CONCACAF Champions League run in which the Impact played a quarterfinal in front of 55,000 people at the Big O. Just to put this in perspective on average there are two sporting events in Canada every year that attract this type of audience, the Grey Cup and the Blue Jay's home opener. After Montreal realized the potential that winning the Voyageurs Cup presents one would have thought they would have shown more respect to the other two teams in the competition by playing a full squad.

This disrespect for the competition was not one shared by Vancouver in 2008, in fact Vancouver played a big part in helping Montreal win the tournament. They beat Toronto 1-0 at BMO Field, then tied Toronto 2-2 at Swangard, giving Montreal an opportunity to close out the tournament against Toronto which they did. Vancouver played these games after they had lost both their opening games to Montreal, which essentially eliminated them from the competition. Vancouver was apparently wrong in assuming that Montreal would have remembered this favour.

Even if these factors weren't evident, even if this match had been a useless friendly the prospect of a Toronto-Montreal match should have been enough to yield a full line up from both of these teams. These two cities share a rich history of sports rivalries with the Habs and the Leafs, as well as the Argos and the Alouettes. This rivalry between the Impact and Toronto FC seemed to be shaping up nicely, but Marc De Santos, the Impact coach, seems to have deemed that games against the likes of Miami and Austin to be more important.

Now maybe De Santos believed the team he put out against Toronto had the ability to beat them, or at least hold them to a three goal win. If this is true then he was well in his right to send out a team that could benefit from the experience, while maintaining the competition's integrity. It would have been evident at 3-1 that Toronto had some chance of pulling off this improbable victory. Maybe it took until 4-1, but eventually it would have been obvious that Toronto was in with a shout. So why not bring on the array of talent available on the bench to calm the match down a little if nothing else. Team MVP Sandro Grande, the team's top forward Roberto Brown, and young Canadian standout defender Alex Surprenant, were all on the bench to start the match. They were all still there after the ninety minutes were up.

With all this being said, last night obviously was an embarrassing night for the Impact, a disappointing night for Vancouver, but before anyone says that last night was bad for the competition, look again. It was by far the most drama that this Nutrilite Canadian Championship tournament has provided. The football Toronto played last night was not only entertaining, but a display of some of the best quality they've shown in a long time. In the final game of the Canadian Championship, the man who really lifted Toronto to the Cup was a Canadian, Dwayne DeRosario, who scored the first ever hat trick in Toronto FC history. Most importantly the biggest club in terms of fan support, media attention, and cash is going to the CONCACAF Champions League which can only mean more exposure for footy in Canada.

[Cross-posted to The Canadian Stretford End]

A tale of three cities

The seemingly-impossible 6-1 victory Toronto FC pulled off against the Montreal Impact tonight gives them the Voyageurs Cup, the one fact everyone can agree on. Apart from that, there's no clear lesson or moral to draw from this one, though. It means drastically different things to fans of all the teams involved, and there's no one right answer. Read on for my thoughts on what this result means to fans in each city.

Toronto: It's a great day to be a Toronto FC fan. Almost everyone wrote them off after the Vancouver game; sure, they've got a solid team, but a four-goal victory on the road is hard for any side. For a team that's suffered some significant setbacks recently, including a brutal home loss to the L.A. Galaxy, a series of fan protests and a recent roster makeover, this is a huge step forward. They finally have the CONCACAF Champions League berth they've coveted for so long, and they have some tangible silverware to show their fans. The load on Mo Johnston's shoulders just got significantly lighter; regardless of how TFC do in the remainder of the MLS season, this year will be seen as at least a partial step forward thanks to tonight's events.

Vancouver: For Vancouver fans, it's the opposite. The championship seemed in their grasp, and it would have been a perfect stepping stone on the road to MLS as well as a way to bring some well-deserved Eastern media attention to the Whitecaps. To have that ripped away by a stellar TFC performance would have been bad enough. However, the way this went down was much worse. Their old archrivals, the Montreal Impact, first decided to dress a B-squad, including former Whitecaps' backup goalkeeper Srdjan Djekjanovic. That B-squad then went on to roll over and play dead (after notching the game's first goal on a penalty) in a manner that made the Montreal Screwjob look positively fair, all but assuring TFC's triumph. The faces of head coach Teitur Thordarson and the Whitecaps in the stands told the story of the night; first joy, then cautious optimism, then worry and then disbelief.

In the end, though, Vancouver fans don't have anything to be ashamed of. Their side put in a great tournament and may have deserved the trophy. With a credible effort from Montreal, they might even have won it. There's no point in kicking themselves or their franchise over something that in the end was out of their hands. You can bet they'll be fired up for Saturday's USL game against the Impact, though.

Montreal: In many ways, Montreal fans come out of this in the worst situation. They just watched their side demonstrate that they don't care about the Voyageurs Cup when they don't have a chance to win it. The appalling effort shown by the Impact tonight gives Montreal fans nothing to be proud of, and that's made worse by their lacklustre performance handing the championship to their Toronto-based rivals. Montreal's going to take a lot of criticism over the next few days, and much of it will be deserved. That's not the fans' fault, but it's going to be awfully tough for them to defend their franchise at the moment. Tonight's showing brought back horrible memories of the Santos Laguna defeat, and perhaps was even worse. That was an Impact team that had overachieved; just making it to that point was an accomplishment, and getting any sort of result in Mexico is always difficult. Losing by six goals at home to an MLS team with a poor recent run of form? It's hard to find a way to rationalize that.

In the end, I don't think it necessarily means much for Canadian soccer as a whole. Toronto FC will make a great representative for the country in the CONCACAF Champions League, but as I argued a while ago, Vancouver would have as well. Each would bring a different audience to the table, and a run by either will be good for the game. For Toronto, their focus now shifts to the CCL; for Vancouver and Montreal, the mission's now to succeed in the USL and come back hungry for the Voyageurs Cup title next year. It's been a great, thrilling, dramatic tournament, and it's really shown that these sides at their best can compete with each other and give us some fantastic soccer to watch. In my mind, that's the most important thing to take away from this one.

[Cross-posted to Sporting Madness].

Getting Canadian Clubs to the MLS

Joey Saputo recently went on record saying that "Montreal's entry into MLS is no longer a question of if, but when." Vancouver already has a guaranteed spot in the 2011 MLS season. Toronto is currently the home to a financially successful MLS team for a third season. Eugene Melnyk has been quoted as saying that getting an MLS team to Ottawa is "a no-brainer". Most recently Edmonton has been throwing around the idea of an MLS bid.

The idea of whether or not the MLS is the best way forward for Canadian clubs to develop is up for debate, but what is not up for debate is that the MLS is the future of the sport in this country. The MLS is bringing in the money, is catching audiences from across Canada, and is "the only league" in many people's eyes.

You could go on debating the quality of the MLS compared to the USL for hours, and believe me its been done. The simple fact is for Canadian teams to gain the national recognition they need from a mainstream audience they need to be competing in the MLS. The USL just doesn't have the exposure and as long as the MLS continues to maintain its status as the top league financially the USL will always be a second option to the MLS.

With all that in mind getting as many Canadian clubs into the league has to be the top priority. With Toronto and Vancouver already there the obvious next step is Montreal.

For a USL team Montreal has a solid fan base getting a sell out of over 12,000 out to their home opener last weekend and of course bringing 55,000 people out to the Big O for a CONCACAF Champions League game. The fans want the MLS, the organization is ready to make the jump and the only thing that stopped them in their 2011 bid was Joey Saputo's arrogance, refusing to pay the $40 million entry fee.

What needs to happen in order to get Montreal to the MLS is to get back on commissioner Don Garber's good side and for Joey Saputo to get off his high horse. According to Saputo these things are going well, they are in talks with MLS and a franchise looks inevitable in the near future.

The next prospective site is Ottawa. I think for Ottawa it's a case of "If you build it they will come". Getting an agreement with the city to build a 20-30,000 seat soccer specific stadium in downtown Ottawa is the only way this bid is going to get going. Melnyk is convinced that building a stadium near the Scotiabank Place (home to the Ottawa Senators) would work, but I doubt the city would allow this considering the mess that the location of the Scotiabank Place created.

Garber has said he speaks very highly of Ottawa and if a viable stadium plan is in place I think an MLS team in Ottawa is the future.

Edmonton Oilers owner, Daryl Katz is the newest billionaire to consider the MLS north of the 49th. Although at the moment he is just considering, The Edmonton audience has shown the interest in soccer is there time and time again. People point to poor men's national team attendances, but the U-19 Women's World Cup drew excellent crowds as did an L.A. Galaxy - Vancouver Whitecaps friendly. With relatively little advertising for these games these attendances are all the more impressive.

Although Commonwealth Stadium isn't really an option, because of its enormous size so a new soccer specific stadium would have to be built in Edmonton to accommodate an MLS franchise.

Getting Canadian clubs into the MLS will help the sport in this country more than anything else could right now and making sure this happens should be these club's number one priority.

[Cross-posted to The Canadian Stretford End]

Importance of the Voyageurs Cup

This Wednesday BMO Field will host the opening match in the second ever Nutrilite Canadian Championship between the Vancouver Whitecaps and Toronto FC. They are vying for the Voyageurs Cup, the title of Canadian Champions and a spot in the 2009-2010 CONCACAF Champions League. Now this Cup competition is a short one consisting of only six games between Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal, but it represents one of the most important advances in Canadian soccer.

The Voyageurs Cup (sponsored by the Canadian Soccer Supporters, The Voyageurs) used to be awarded to the winner of the season series between Canadian teams in the USL. During this era the Montreal Impact won the cup all six years that it was awarded. At this time the Voyageurs Cup was something the real supporters of these clubs talked about but it hadn't really gotten out to the media what this trophy was all about. In its new format it has, and it is a hit among the fans.

In the new format three teams from different leagues play in games that are scheduled out side of their respective leagues (the Voyageurs Cup games are no longer USL games) and vie for the title of Canadian Champion instead of just recognition from one supporters group. Not only has this heated up the rivalries between the three Canadian clubs, but it has also got people thinking about possible future ramifications.

Being Canadian Champions is a big deal for these teams, just look at the Impact last year. Many Impact supporters put winning the Voyageurs Cup above winning the USL title several years earlier. The idea of being a Canadian Champion means something to these cities and these supporters. Which paves the idea of a possible Canadian league.

The issue of whether or not Canadian teams should just stay in leagues like the MLS and USL or form their own league is a controversial one in Canadian soccer circles. Many believe that playing our American counterparts keeps Canada part of the North American scene and helps develop our at a higher level since the quality of opposition is greater. It also gives a more financially sound base as it has been proven that Canadian Soccer Leagues (or Canadian sports leagues in general) aren't always set for success.

There was a very poor attempt made at a Canadian league in the late 1980s and early 1990s. The CSL (Canadian Soccer League) as it was called was made in order to develop more and stronger players after Canada qualified for the World Cup in 1986. The structure and interest just wasn't there and the league folded.

Right now the Voyageurs Cup is proof that the interest is there. Fans of the national team see a national league as an avenue to grow more players and at a higher level. Fans of individual clubs see it as a chance to get another dig at their local rivals. If it worked I believe that a new Canadian Soccer League would help grow the game in this country.

Even if this league may not ever come to fruition the mere fact that the Voyageurs Cup hints to the possibility of this league is a big plus. Don Garber, the MLS commissioner, has said many times before that he wants further expansion into Canada. With the success of Toronto FC and the projected success of Vancouver it would be a massive financial incentive to explore the option of more Canadian teams. The Voyageurs Cup and the threat of a national league may help speed this process up.

Garber doesn't want to lose his Canadian market to a break off Canadian league so the Voyageurs Cup may give him the incentive to bring as many Canadian teams into the league as soon as he can. With Vancouver coming in 2011, Ottawa and Montreal still showing interest as well as recent talk of an Edmonton bid, the prospective of a Canadian league grows bigger while Garber will try harder to accommodate these teams into the MLS.

So whether it leads to more Canadian teams in the MLS, a Canadian League or something completely different, enjoy the Voyageurs Cup this year it could mean big things for the future of Canadian soccer.

[Cross-posted to The Canadian Stretford End]

The real loser in potential Habs sale? Montreal soccer fans

Huge news today that Montreal Canadiens owner George Gillett is officially trying to offload at least a portion of the team [Sean Gordon, The Globe and Mail]. The timing's certainly unfortunate for the Canadiens, given their recent struggles and coaching turnover in the midst of what was supposed to be a glorious centennial season. It's likely that the sale won't matter all that much for Montreal hockey in the end, though; this is the league's most storied franchise and one that successfully dominates not just its local market, but its entire province. The idea of moving the team can't be in the cards, unless the dealer is an absolute moron.

The real potential losers here are Montreal soccer fans. Keep in mind that Gillett was responsible for much of the money backstopping the Montreal Impact's bid for MLS status. Given that the Globe story mentions that Gillett may also be looking to offload his interests in Liverpool FC and NASCAR, it's hard to see him having an interest in supplying the financing for Montreal to make another run at one of the 2012 expansion slots.

That's too bad, as the Impact will need all the money they can get. As the Canadian Guys pointed out on the weekend, Stade Saputo is not an acceptable MLS stadium in its current 13,000 seat incarnation. Renovations to make it a 20,000-seater were discussed this fall, but they're going to be expensive. Although Joey Saputo stated firmly after Montreal's withdrawal that the partnership "never, at any point, had any trouble whatsoever financing its bid," it's looking more and more like that may not have been the case; Gillett's troubles with Liverpool were in full swing by that point, and the economy was already in the tank. Of course, Saputo's words may well be technically correct; they may not have ever had trouble financing their proposal of $43 million Canadian (as reported by Ben Knight back in his Globe days), including construction costs, but it seems that they were unwilling or unable to come up with the $40 million U.S. franchise fee. You have to wonder if part of that was perhaps due to Gillett becoming uneasy about investing more in sports at a time when he was already facing a cash crunch at Liverpool.

This is not meant to paint Gillett as a villain. In fact, as portrayed in Stephen Brunt's columns, he comes off as the sort of man you'd want as an owner; not stingy with the wages or the stadium expansions and respectful of cherished traditions. His Liverpool counterpart Tom Hicks is quite a different story, but Gillett seems to care about sports and to do so for the right reasons. Obviously I can't know his motivation for trying to sell his sports interests now, but given the global economic turmoil, the possibility exists that it might not have been his choice under better circumstances. He was a great owner for the Canadiens, and he should be remembered as such; he also supported the idea of MLS soccer in Montreal and he deserves praise for that.

The question for any future Montreal bid for MLS status is if they can find someone willing to take Gillett's place, and they'll have to do it soon. As Ives reported, MLS wants to add two more teams in 2012. If we presume the same two-year gap between expansion announcements and starting play, that would mean that the next two cities would be decided about a year from now. That's not a lot of time for Montreal to find an investor willing to pony up the cash for stadium renovations and the full franchise fee. Plus, it may even be more expensive this time. Yes, Vancouver got in for $35 million in the end, but they had significant leverage on their side; there weren't a lot of promising bids left at that point, and as Marc Weber of the Vancouver Province pointed out, there's quite a difference between his estimate of the $24 million that Montreal offered (which may even be generous considering construction costs in Montreal) as a franchise fee and the $35 million the Whitecaps paid. Montreal has no such leverage, and they may even be starting from less than zero given the ugly public ending to their last MLS bid.

Meanwhile, the USL is looking less and less attractive for Montreal. Seattle's already left, and Vancouver and Portland are soon to follow suit; there go three of the marquee teams. Plus, Vancouver in MLS means there will be less Canadian media coverage of Montreal and the USL; they'll probably still get local write-ups, but the national soccer narrative is likely to focus on the MLS teams (especially if they get a good national TV deal). That doesn't mean that the USL won't still be viable, but it's going to look more and more small-time down the road. If I was a Montreal soccer fan, I would be hoping like hell that the Impact find a wealthy investor to replace Gillett and get a solid bid together for the 2012 round of expansion. If they don't, soccer in Canada may pass them by.

Vancouver in MLS; what's it mean for Montreal (idly wondering)

Vancouver is officially in MLS, as you know since Rollins was out front. Meantime, Théo Gauthier, the Ottawa Sports Guy, has some misgivings about what it might mean for Montreal Impact owner Joey Saputo.

"It's difficult to tell, but remember that George Gillett, owner of the Montreal Canadiens and Liverpool FC, has made it known he'd love an MLS franchise. It's not out of the realm of possibility that (MLS commissioner) Don Garber is much less comfortable with a French-Italo-Canadian-cheese and Jos Louis maker than with a WASP Texas businessman with much deeper pockets that would immediately link his MLS club to the storied Liverpool FC.

"If I'm right, and this is what truly happened, it would be quite unfair to the Saputo family. They have nurtured the soccer culture in Montreal from its embryonic stage to the solid franchise it is today. To have the rug swept from under them by a swaggering cowboy would be sad indeed."

There was a similar situation, you will recall, when MLSE-owned Toronto FC came into being and the Toronto Lynx owners promptly folded its team post-haste. They were a mom-and-pop store up against Wal-Mart. It passed with barely any notice, even though MLSE-bashing might be Toronto's official sport.

It piqued some interest, to say the least. Gillett has his hands full with Liverpool, by most accounts; replacing CEO Rick Parry, trying to replace undersized Anfield (44,000 seats; Manchester United has 76,000) and making nice with co-owner Tom Hicks. There's also the matter that FIFA boss Sepp Blatter isn't hot on having Americans own European teams and wants MLS season to start in late summer and run through the winter, which might be a bit of a problem in Toronto and Montreal.

Anyway, keep your fingers crossed for Montreal in 2013 and, yeah, there's Ottawa too.

Related:
Hooray! I think? (Théo Gauthier, Ottawa Sports Guy)

Snark break ...

(Please omit flowers for the Montreal Impact. Canadian soccer teams always being the scrappy underdog is so little for the mind ... but they came so close.)

There is a method to the madness of the CFL legalizing the Wildcat formation: Based on last season, the Argos should have the quarterback handling the ball as little as possible.

It's good to see the single point we know and love will be spared. It might be universally regarded as an award for failure, but that's Canada at its essence. Thank your lucky stars for that, eh, John Tory?

Say whatever you want about Terrell Owens, but four quarterbacks have thrown 30 touchdown passes in a season with him, and only one of them ever did it without him, Hall of Famer Steve Young. Granted, it's better for ESPN when the Dallas Cowboys are stupid. (Fist bump: Pacifist Viking.)

Ontario Hockey League commissioner David Branch said this week the recession is having "no significant impact on the league." For instance, the Kingston Frontenacs will sell as many playoff tickets as they did last season.

That's not a cheap shot when you consider that the Frontenacs tried to blame their attendance on the recession, despite the fact most season tickets were paid in full before the Dow took a dump.

Thank you, Cox Bloc: We want Sean Avery. We need Sean Avery.

Lastly, one for The Tao of Stieb: It's a sad commentary on the state of Canadian literacy that so many have heard Prime Time Sports regular James Deacon on the radio, but never read one of his columns.

This post is worth nothing, but this is worth noting

• The MLB Network is getting rave reviews, which perfectly explains why it could never get carriage in Canada.
  
• Twitter is bad, very bad. Go tweet that to all of your followers.
• Ottawa native Chris Bisson, a sophomore shortstop at the University of Kentucky, is on the Canadian Baseball Network's 2010 draft list.
• The economy is bad, Ken Griffey is back in Seattle, it's pretty much like the early '90s, so perfect time for all four Seinfeld actors to reunite.
  
  (In the old days, this would have inspired a Top 5, but turns out ESPN.com did the best Seinfeld sports moments almost five years ago.

That night in Montreal ...

The image of MLS commissioner Don Garber doing a spit take all over his BlackBerry — Montreal won?! —, well, that's a good place to start.

Eduardo Sebrango scored both goals for the Impact in their 2-0 CONCACAF Champions League quarter-final first-leg win over Santos Laguna of Mexico in front of 55,571 absolute nutters at Olympic Stadium. It's early yet to know what kind of watershed this is for Canadian footy, but as D. Rollins says in his 24th Minute post, "Maybe every person who has fought to bring this sport into the mainstream in Canada also walked away with a victory."

One would hope that succeeding years prove that to be more right than wrong, regardless of how much or how little you're into soccer. Canada only excelling in team sports which a small, snow-bound fraction of the world cares about is gets old pretty quickly. Obviously, CONCACAF's club competition is several rungs below the Champions League or the Copa in South America, but what counts here is people investing themselves emotionally in their local team, and by extension, the sport on their own continent, rather than settling for watching it via satellite.

That, at least in this recovering soccerphobe's opinion, is what Garber showed the back of hand when he tried to demand a $40-million franchise fee out of the Impact and owner Joey Saputo. Now the Impact, for one night at least, are the toast of fans across North America, while Garber is in scramble mode trying to find an ownership group willing to ante up in the midst of a recession.

Who knows what Montreal winning, especially since even a casual Canadian fan knows not to count on anything when one of our teams heads south of the Rio Grande for a game. Duane is the guy who gets football and he says don't even try to understand it, so it might be foolish to try. Let's just say it was great. It wasn't aired live in CBC prime time, but the next time something like this comes along, it probably will, which is progress. That contributes to a great night all-around. Let's keep hoping it leads someplace.

More details on Montreal emerge

Further information on the no-MLS-for-Montreal situation has come out since my last post on the subject, thanks once again to Ben Knight of The Globe and Mail's On Soccer blog. The devil may be in the details, and if so, he's hiding after the jump.

First, some quotes from Impact owner Joey Saputo at his aforementioned press conference Monday:

“First: Montreal never at any point withdrew its bid from the process. We were rather informed that our bid was not retained.
Second: The Montreal partnership never, at any point, had any trouble whatsoever financing its bid.
Third: There was never any question of using public funds to finance this project.”

The second point is the most interesting new information here. My earlier speculation was that this might have been due to financial struggles on the part of George Gillett, Saputo's partner in the bid and the owner of the Montreal Canadians and co-owner of Liverpool FC (which is having financial problems of its own [Roy Collins, The Times of London]. Basically, what Saputo's saying here is that the amount Montreal was willing to pay was sustainable and did not change; what changed was the league's willingness to consider it (and also the drop in the Canadian dollar, which made the Saputo/Gillett bid worth a lot less).

On the financial details front, the league asked for expansion fees of $40 million U.S. Montreal apparently offered $43 million Canadian, including stadium renovations. Considering that the Canadian dollar was reasonably close to par at this point, this was probably a reasonable offer; not quite what the league was looking for, but close enough that they might have been able to work something out.

The Canadian dollar has tanked since then, though, losing close to a fifth of its value. As Knight writes, "That effectively means the Impact were bidding about $34.4-million (U.S.), minus whatever rebuilding a stadium costs in a town where construction expenses are – at best and most charitable – imprecise."

Look under "Stadium, Olympic" if you want an example of that imprecision. Presuming that the other cities were ponying up the asked-for $40 million franchise fee in addition to stadium costs, it's not hard to see why MLS would drop Montreal from consideration. It's interesting that they did so publicly, though; might it not have made better business sense to have everyone think that Montreal still had pole position in the expansion race, compelling them to sweeten their own bids? This also looks bad on Saputo and Gillett, as they're now seen somewhat as cheapskates who didn't want to pay the required price. It would have been a better situation for MLS commissioner Don Garber to quietly tell the Montreal guys that their bid wasn't sufficient at its current level, but then have both sides keep that information under wraps and just announce that Montreal wasn't one of the selected cities when the decision was eventually made. That way, both sides save face.

Knight argues that this makes some sense for Montreal, and I tend to agree. As I wrote back in September, their current situation is pretty good. Not joining MLS may hurt them in the long term, but unlike many of the cities in this expansion race, they have a very tenable fallback position. This position is certainly strengthened by their success in the CONCACAF Champions League; they've proved they can play with bigger clubs, and they can offer potential players a large and supportive crowd and a chance to play international soccer. MLS would be great for Montreal and great for the Impact, but they aren't compelled to try and get in at any price.

However, I'm not sure that the MLS expansion fees are as ludicrous as Saputo seems to be claiming. Perhaps $40 million plus stadium building/renovations is too steep in this economic climate, but there are six cities that seem willing to pay that (and the majority, if not the entirety, would likely face steeper stadium costs than Montreal). It's supply and demand, and MLS is in a very good position here; they have several strong bids to consider for only a couple of slots, so they can play the cities off against each other and force them to keep raising the stakes. Montreal wasn't interested in that game, and that's fine; they have less to lose than any of these other cities, given their existing stadium, strong supporter base and CONCACAF success. The long-term viability of the USL is in no way assured, though, particularly if some of the stronger franchises like Vancouver and Portland jump to the MLS.

It's going to be tough to evaluate this decision exhaustively at the moment, as we don't know what will happen. MLS could bring in two to four other franchises, halt expansion and take off in popularity; Montreal would then be left on the outside looking in. If Vancouver and/or Ottawa get into MLS, that will also hurt the Impact; it will be tougher to sell the USL when there's a national alternative league, rather than just one franchise in Toronto. Alternatively, the other cities may overpay and struggle financially, and the league may lose popularity. The USL might even mount a challenge to MLS. There could be a mix of the two scenarios as well, where Montreal stays in the USL for a few more years and then jumps to the MLS later on. My feeling is that MLS expansion prices are going to rise, not fall, but you never know what will happen. Regardless of what eventually comes of this, though, this is a significant move for both Montreal and Canadian soccer. We'll see if it's remembered as a smart business decision or as a missed opportunity.

Was Montreal's bid axed by MLS?

Yes, the Grey Cup's set to kick off in a few hours (and I'll have a full preview up shortly), but that's not the only subject making news in Montreal. On Friday night, Duane and I both wrote here about how Montreal had seemingly dropped its bid for an MLS franchise, which seemed curious to say the least. New information has now arisen that muddies the situation further. Ben Knight of the excellent On Soccer blog over at The Globe and Mail has dug up a really interesting press release, presumably from the Montreal Impact, which suggests that they wanted to keep the bid alive but it was axed by MLS commissioner Don Garber. The release is after the jump.


Here's the release:

"RECTIFICATION REGARDING MONTREAL'S BID FOR MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER

Following MLS Commissioner Don Garber's statements regarding Montreal's bid, the Montreal partnership group would like to bring one important rectification:

Montreal did not withdrew its bid from Major League Soccer but was informed that the league did not retain its bid. Out of respect for the Grey Cup festivities, the partnership group will not make any additional statements over the weekend. However, the President of the Montreal Impact [and] Saputo Stadium, Mr. Joey Saputo, who is spearheading Montreal's MLS bid, will meet the media: Monday, November 24, 2008, 10:30 am, Saputo Stadium, 4750 Sherbrooke Street, Montreal."

That's fascinating. According to this release, it wasn't that Montreal backed out; MLS decided not to consider their application. It's hard to imagine why at first, especially considering that most observers thought Montreal had the strongest bid of any city and was pretty much a lock. However, there could be concerns with the financial health of George Gillett's sporting empire, especially considering Liverpool's troubles [Ian Herbert and Andrew Warshaw, The Independent]. Joey Saputo, the owner of the Impact and Gillett's partner in the MLS bid, has also brought up the notion of staying in the USL, so perhaps Garber was concerned about Montreal's commitment to MLS.

We have conflicting statements, though. From the AP story with Garber's comments:

"Garber said that Montreal's delegation — led by Joey Saputo and George Gillett, who owns Liverpool FC in England's Premier League and the NHL's Montreal Canadiens — had informed him within the past week of possible trouble.

'Montreal has had to evaluate what kinds of private capital they needed to refinance their stadium to fund the expansion fee, and what kind of public support would be available,' Garber said. 'I'm not sure they were able to come to terms in this economic environment.'"

Garber doesn't directly say that Montreal withdrew their bid on their own, but that's certainly the logical inference, and it's the one the unnamed AP writer drew; his lede reads "Montreal withdrew its bid for a Major League Soccer expansion team, commissioner Don Garber said Friday in his state-of-the-league address."

Garber and Saputo (or whoever wrote the Impact's press release) could both telling the truth, though. Garber never said that Montreal abandoned their bid, even though he implied it. It's possible Saputo and Gillett wanted to keep the bid alive despite financial trouble, but Garber canned it after seeing the numbers.

Still, kicking Montreal of the bid process seems rather unusual, especially given the strength of their bid. Even if the league had already decided to go with a different franchises, retaining Montreal as an option would force the other markets to up the ante of their bids in an attempt to compete. If the press release is accurate, this decision doesn't seem to make business sense for MLS on the surface; less markets under consideration means less competition for the limited expansion slots, and more complaining about and reluctance to pay the sky-high expansion fees sure to be required. You have to wonder if there's more going on here. Monday's press conference will surely be illuminating.

(Cross-posted to Sporting Madness.)

Montreal pulls out of MLS expansion

Update: Great (or not-so-great) minds thought alike here: Duane wrote about this at the same time I did. Check out his post below for more thoughts on the matter.

With all the focus on Canadian football this weekend, the interesting news tonight on that other kind of football (European, not American) might be overlooked. According to The Associated Press (via The Globe and Mail), Major League Soccer commissioner Don Garber announced Friday that Montreal has officially dropped out of the crowded field of entrants trying to get a MLS franchise. Some of Garber's quotes and an analysis of what this could mean for the other Canadian franchise bids follow after the jump.

From the story:

Garber said that Montreal's delegation — led by Joey Saputo and George Gillett, who owns Liverpool FC in England's Premier League and the NHL's Montreal Canadiens — had informed him within the past week of possible trouble.

"Montreal has had to evaluate what kinds of private capital they needed to refinance their stadium to fund the expansion fee, and what kind of public support would be available," Garber said. "I'm not sure they were able to come to terms in this economic environment." ...

"They're out for the next round of expansion," Garber said. "I don't think it's gone forever but it's gone for now."

This is a pretty big shocker. Duane ranked Montreal as 90 per cent likely to get in his initial evaluation of the bids, and many others, including famed American analyst Yves Galarcep, concurred. In fact, it was even speculated for a while that Montreal would jump the queue entirely and replace Philadelphia as a franchise entering in 2010 instead of in 2011. Thus, this is a dramatic twist worthy of a daytime soap opera, and also perhaps one of the first real quantifiable effects of the economic crisis on sports.*

*Interestingly, Gillett was on Prime Time Sports for almost an hour today and discussed how the economic crisis might affect sports for a good part of that, but never once mentioned soccer. The focus was on the Canadiens. Keep in mind that he's facing massive debt issues in England with regards to Liverpool that could result in fire sales of players [James Ducker, The Times of London] or even the team [Ian Herbert and Andrew Warshaw, The Independent]. If things are in that bad shape over there, you can bet he has no money to pay a high Montreal expansion fee and renovate their stadium, especially with the hits his investments have likely taken recently (if his stocks are like anyone else's). It would have been nice to see Bob McCown and Stephen Brunt ask him about Liverpool's troubles, especially with the economic focus of their show; that was probably nixed by McCown's hatred for all things soccer, though. It's too bad; he might have landed a nice scoop on the Impact.

Keep in mind that this didn't come completely out of the blue, though. Back in September, there were musings and rumours floating around about how the club might decide to stay in the USL. I saw where the club was coming from, but ultimately concluded that MLS is a much better long-term solution for them. Duane was less gentle. Remember that they do have a very strong and high-profile USL franchise, though, and a nice new stadium that's USL-suitable, but would need significant expensive upgrades to be MLS-ready. If they can't pull off the MLS expansion at the moment, it may hurt them down the road, but they'll still be successful in the USL for the immediate future, and they may get another shot at MLS once the economic situation improves.

Paradoxically, though, what's bad for Canada in one way may be good for the country in another. It's obviously disappointing that the Impact won't be playing in MLS in the near future; they're a great team, and they already have a good rivalry with Toronto, plus their success in the CONCACAF Champions League seemed a natural foundation on which to create a strong MLS franchise. However, Montreal's loss could be a gain for Vancouver and Ottawa. Montreal had the best of the Canadian bids by many evaluations; with them out of the picture, the other two cities look better by comparision. This is especially important considering that Garber added that the Canadian bids are strong, but "expanding into Canada might jeopardize the growth of the sport in the United States" (the AP writer's words, not Garber's).

"We don't have a lot of commercial businesses in Canada today," Garber said of league sponsorships. "The more teams we add there, the more it takes away out from growing our footprint and our television ratings in the United States."

With comments like that, it seems likely that MLS would have been hesistant to expand by only two Canadian teams even if Montreal and Vancouver had the best bids. Thus, if the league decideds they're going to stick with the quota of only allowing two teams to join in 2011 and will only include one Canadian team in that, Vancouver's chances look a lot better all of a sudden. Again, Duane's a much bigger Vancouver skeptic than many thanks to the stadium issue, and he had them ranked third in the initial list behind only Montreal and St. Louis.

Garber also had some very positive things to say about Vancouver, as the AP story goes on to show. "Garber called Vancouver's presentation "one of the best I've ever seen, and I was involved in sports expansion in (the NFL)," he said." That's some high praise right there. Furthermore, the man is smart; he endorsed the rivalry concept I've been promoting for quite a while. Rivalries are what sell, especially in sports that aren't necessarily as popular, and soccer has a better tradition of fierce rivalries than almost anyone else. There's a long-established rivalry on the West Coast between the USL versions of the Vancouver Whitecaps, Seattle Sounders and Portland Timbers; bringing them all into MLS gives the league a strong West Coast presence and a great way to sell those games to fans, advertisers and television networks. Vancouver-Toronto would be a similarly great rivalry to sell to Canadian television and marketers.

Ottawa's bid, which seemed somewhat ridiculous at first, also seems to be growing stronger.

Ottawa blew us away," Garber said. "They do give a very focused plan as to where they'd build the stadium. Their presentation was not just about how they were going to build the stadium but how they were going to build the sport."

That's good to hear, but a presentation can only do so much. Ottawa may still be a longer-term project, and there are also issues with their bid coming into conflict with the CFL plan. What could help them is if rather than limiting expansion to two teams, the league goes ahead with four or five and brings in both Vancouver and Ottawa to strengthen the Canadian part of MLS and try and pick up a lucrative national television deal. Ottawa isn't as helpful as Montreal in that regard, but it's still something. Still, when you look at the other bids and how they're shaping up (especially with Albert Pujols buying in in St. Louis), Ottawa seems to come up a bit short.

We'll see what becomes of this, but this decision could substantially change the MLS expansion discussion. The favourites are out, and that will make room for some of the challengers. The question is if Vancouver and Ottawa will be in that group.

Montreal to MLS: Non!

Montreal has pulled out of the bidding for the next round of MLS expansion.

Although we have yet to hear any word from the Montreal bid, they have never seemed fully committed to MLS from the get-go. Here's hoping that they know what they are doing because there is no guarantee that MLS is going to take another look at them, or that USL will remain a viable league (if its best markets keep jumping to MLS.

On the surface, this might be good news for Vancouver's bid. However. as I'ce said in this space before, don't outright dismiss the Ottawa bid. Don Garber had this to say about Ottawa today in his state of the league address:

Ottawa blew us away," Garber said. "They do give a very focused plan as to where they'd build the stadium. Their presentation was not just about how they were going to build the stadium but how they were going to build the sport."

In many ways the best thing for Canadian soccer would be for the Ottawa bid to pull the upset. That would give this country four pro teams instead of three.

There was no word on when the final announcement would be made on what two cities get in for 2011.

Philly's gain is Montreal's loss...maybe

A couple weeks ago, I reported the rumour that the Philly MLS franchise, which was awarded for the 2010 season, might be in jeopardy. Due to financial difficulties of one of the main backers of the bid, it was speculated that Philly's spot would be bumped back a year and that another group would be awarded the '10 spot.

Since Montreal was seen as the most "game ready" of MLS expansion bids, the thinking was that it would be the Impact that would make the jump.

One thing that was pointed to as evidence of Philly's problems was the lack of movement on the stadium construction site.

Well, it appears that a groundbreaking will finally happen on the site Dec. 1.

Whether that means that all is well for 2010 -- it's never been suggested that Philly wasn't going to get a team, just that it would be delayed--is still up in the air, but it would seem to illustrate that the earlier rumours were likely just that--rumours.

Somewhat related: A Portland website takes the piss out of Seattle supporters. Take a look at the difference between the two crowds and ask yourself what it means that Portland isn't coming into MLS and Seattle is.

FJM on USL v MLS CRAP

With apologies to FJM, an offering from today's Montreal Gazette regarding MLS expansion

Nine cities, including Montreal, are in line to bid for two expansion franchises in Major League Soccer, which, in theory at least, is the height of professional soccer in North America.

When the very first word you type in an article is a factual error, you know that things are only going to get worse. It's seven cities. Also, Mexico is in North America and no one is claiming that MLS is better than the MFL.

The principals in these cities - we're talking Joey Saputo and George Gillett here in Montreal - will be asked to fork over an expansion fee that could be as high as $40 million.

The question everyone should be asking is: What do you get for your money?

Well, a MLS team I would suspect. Maybe Don Garber throws in a bath towel set, but I'm not sure.

Let's start with MLS, which was born out of the soccer fever that surrounded the 1994 World Cup in the United States. Someone mistakenly believed the support for this one-off event was evidence Americans had suddenly developed a passion for the world's most popular game.

But the latest attendance figures show, if anything, popularity for pro soccer in North America is waning. The average attendance at MLS games this past season was 16,459. That's down 1.8 per cent from last season.

Which ranks 2008 as the second best median attendance in league history, and third best average. The opening weekend crowds of 1996--where there were a few 50,000ers--just barely bumps that season above this past one.

Only three teams - the L.A. Galaxy, Toronto FC and DC United - averaged more than 20,000. Ironically, they all missed the playoffs. The San Jose Earthquakes, the latest expansion team, averaged only 13,713. The Kansas City Wizards drew a league-low 10,686, which is about 2,000 less than the Impact drew.

Both KC and San Jose played in temporary stadiums in 2008, which were not much larger than the average attendance figures.

Looking for growth? It's non existent. The average attendance is lower than it was in the league's 1996 inaugural season.

And better than every other year the league has been in existence. Look for yourself.

League revenues are up, but you have to wonder how much of the increase comes from selling expansion franchises. At one point, MLS concentrated on strengthening its existing franchises and cautiously added teams. In recent years, it seems to be addicted to expansion, because it knows it can fleece prospective owners.

Well, I'm sure that helps, but so does the sell out crowds in LA and Toronto and the second highest median crowds in league history.

Why would anyone want to invest in a business that is stagnant at best?

I don't know? Of course MLS isn't stagnant.

How about a chance to compete against the best?

The MLS comes up short in that area. Four MLS teams competed in the CONCACAF Champions League; two of them fell by the wayside in the preliminary round and the others were eliminated in group play. The United Soccer Leagues, the supposedly weaker league that is home to the Impact, had two teams in Champions League play - the Impact and the Puerto Rico Islanders - and they advanced to the quarterfinals.

And good for them. It's a terribly small sample size--and the first time in 10 years that MLS teams have come up short against USL teams in head to head competition (although DC United did win the US Open Cup, to make it nine of 10 over the USL by MLS). Oh, and all four MLS teams played their reserves in the competition (which is not something the league should be proud of, but is representative of how much importance MLS put on the Champions League).

There are some impressive big names in MLS like David Beckham, Juan Pablo Angel and Marcello Gallardo, but the Beckham experience has left a lot to be desired. Beckham plays for the Los Angeles Galaxy when he's not playing for England or AC Milan, or watching the Olympic basketball final in Beijing. During his first two seasons in MLS, he has appeared in only 25 of the Galaxy's 60 games.

Yes there are. And, you're right. The USL loses less players to international duty than MLS does. Likely because it has better players.

In a league that has extensive revenue-sharing, MLS should be concerned with attracting cities that have a proven track record of success, which should put Montreal on the top of the list, especially when you consider the success of Toronto FC.

Yes...good.

But Montreal might be better off joining Vancouver, Ottawa and some of the other cities seeking MLS franchises and starting a league of their own or shoring up the existing USL. They'd save money on the franchise fees and would be able to give their fans a more affordable product. The threat of such a move might even convince MLS to reduce its exorbitant franchise fee, because the reality is that the MLS needs Montreal more than Montreal needs the MLS.

In a perfect world, sure. A Canadian league would be great. But, it's going to cost a hell of a lot more than $40 million to start and it would have no guarantee of success. Actually, the odds would be against it fromn the get go.

The USL is a good league, but MLS is better. It has better exposure and better players. Montreal fans are deluding themselves if they thing one Champions League run is evidence that they would be better off playing in the USL.

There are plenty of reasons to critique MLS. None of them are listed here.

Try again.

The final stand of '08

The last competitive soccer game of the year involving a pro Canadian team takes place tonight in Mexico. The Montreal Impact will look to wrap up first place in their CONCACAF Champions League group against Atlante.

Regardless of the result, Montreal is, unexpectedly, through to the quarterfinals of the competition. However, if the Impact lose they will ,most likely draw a Mexican side in the quarters. A win or a tie tonight and Montreal has a chance to draw Puerto Rico, Houston or Luis Angel Firpo. Those teams are beatable. It's unclear whether anyone, other than Costa Rica's Deportivo Saprissa, is going to touch the Mexican teams once they start to play first teamers.

The quarters will be tough on all the northern teams (and those like Puerto Rico that play in northern leagues) as they will be out of season and they may not even have the same line-ups.

But, that's for another day. Today, Montreal fans have one more game to look forward to.

Cross posted to The 24th Minute.

Philly fires back at rumormongers

Although I'm sure they would deny it, officials in Philadelphia reacted today to rumours that surfaced suggesting that Montreal would be given the go ahead to start in MLS in 2010 in replace of Philly.

In a release posted to the expansion team's official web site, CEO Nick Sakiewicz suggests that all is well.

“Everything is going very well,” he said. “It’s been about eight months since we announced the franchise and the months have flown by. We’ve done mountains of work behind the scenes, including securing all necessary permits to start construction. We’re fully locked and loaded with the stadium site and cleanup is well underway.”

An official press release is hardly proof of anything, but, of course, neither is discussion board scuttlebutt. There has been limited work on the Philly stadium site, which is the main reason that the rumours won't die. Still, the team says it will break ground in mid-November.

Soccer fans, especially in Philadelphia and Montreal, will watch with interest.

Cross posted at The 24th Minute.

The final seven

There were no surprise bids today when MLS announced the seven cities that have officially bid for a team. Well, Ottawa was the surprise, but, of course, we've known about that bid for sometime.

The league must also be disappointed that the second New York bid did not materialize.

The cities and a few comments on each below the jump.


Montreal (The Saputo's and Gillett's) - There is lots of money and a bare bones stadium already up. Additionally, Montreal has a strong USL history, is a natural rival for Toronto (as well as Boston and New York) and has pre-existing supporter's culture. However, Montreal has been lukewarm about MLS at times and the stadium really isn't remotely close to being MLS standard. Still...Chance of success - 90%

St. Louis (an investment group) - Show me the money. MLS has long wanted in to St. Louis, but St. Louis has never been able to find the type of rich investor that the other bids have. In the free falling economy, that might be deadly (MLS might be leery of dealing with 15 individual investors, any one of which could end up being Boots Del Biaggio. The rest of the bid is solid. Chance of success - 70%

Vancouver (Greg Kerfoot, Steve Nash and Jeff Mallett) - If they weren't planning on playing out of BC Place the Whitecaps could likely start selling the season tickets. Everything else is there--a committed ownership with deep pockets, a passionate supporter's culture, soccer tradition and a great point guard. But that stadium plan. And, the whole more than one team in Canada thing. Chance of success - 66%

Atlanta (Arthur Blank) - Backed by some big NFL money Atlanta has the advantage of representing a region that currently does not have a MLS team--the American south-east. Of course, Atlanta is a notoriously poor sports market, the bid is late to the game and the stadium plan is vague at best. Chance of success: 50%

Miami (FC Barcelona and Marcelo Claure) - It's unclear how much Barcelona is actually involved in the bid at this time. Some are suggesting that the club is full on into this, while others are suggesting that its involvement is symbolic at best. The market has a lot of potential soccer fans, but it failed once before. There is next to no stadium plan. Chance of success - 33%

Ottawa (Eugene Melnyk) - Solid ownership and a nice little stadium plan. That's good. No soccer tradition and a tiny little market. Not so much. Plus, is it really likely that two Canadian teams will get in? It seems like Melnyk might be planting a seed rather than seriously going for it for 2011. Chance of success - 20%

Portland (The Paulson's) - A wonderful pre-existing supporter's culture and, well...they are everyone's favourite. That's only going to get Portland so far. The money seems shaky, they play in a AAA baseball park (an old AAA baseball park) and the bid is relying on way too much public money. Chance of success - 10%

The more the bids shake out, the more it becomes apparent that the best two bids are from Canada. The only reason not to put both teams here is to not put both teams here.

It's likely MLS will give into pressure from a small, but loud group that does not want Canadian involvement in the league by compromising with the single new Canuck team for 2011.

Regardless, you can expect as many as four to five of these cities to eventually get teams. Some through the expansion from 18 to 20 teams and others through relocation.

Related:

• Expansion discussion board chatter
• Las Vegas not out of expansion plans
  
• (Barcelona president) Laporta thrilled by MLS opportunity
• Whitecaps confident on the pitch
• Seven's not heaven in MLS bidding
• Mets' MLS bid put off to 2012
  

More evidence that I don't know what the hell I'm talking about

So much for Montreal embarrassing themselves in the CONCACAF Champions League. With tonight's 4-1 win over Trinidad's Joe Public they pretty much wrapped up a spot in the quarterfinals, which will take place in February.

Full credit to the USL side. They have been playing effective soccer throughout the tournament and the Canadian qualifying (I'll resist pointing out that the Impact didn't actually beat TFC for now. They went through on the strength of two wins against Vancouver and stealing a point against the Reds on the final match day. I guess I didn't resist, did I?).

Meanwhile it's been a tough go of it for MLS teams (although Toronto's Dwayne DeRosario scored the winner last night for Houston to keep them alive in the competition). Part of it is that the league still puts most of its focus on winning the MLS Cup and teams are putting their energy towards the league title--reserves have dressed for many of the CCL games. But, that's just part of it. What the results have shown is that although MLS teams are generally better than USL teams in those 1 to 11 spots, it gets pretty blurry after that. Middle of the road players can make more money and have a bigger role on in the USL, so they often just stay.

Before making the argument that Montreal and Vancouver might be better off staying in the USL, where they aren't restricted by MLS salary cap and roster size rules, keep in mind that this is a small sample size. Over the past 10 years MLS teams have gotten the better of their USL opponents in about 80 per cent of the games that they have played against each other.

But, none of that matters to Montreal now. Nor, should it. The Impact can fully focus on preparing for the home and home this winter (and do you not think there might be a bit of a home advantage for Montreal against an opponent that will almost certainly be from Central America). And its fans can enjoy the ride.

Edit - DeRo's goal is at 4:37 below. It's worth a watch:

MLS Expansion watch: The Vegas factor - Is relocation the way for more Canadian teams in MLS?

The Columbus Crew are the best team in MLS this season. They may also be headed out of town, relocated to Las Vegas as part of MLS' continued tinkering to get the league to the next level. As outlined in the linked article, Columbus has always been the forgotten one when it comes to the league. Crew fans feel unappreciated by a league that would seemingly rather force a second team into the New York market--even though the first team there barely draws--than help the top team stay in a small market.

It probably isn't fair. OK, it undoubtedly isn't fair, but it 's the way MLS swings. It picked up and left San Jose for Houston just a year removed from that team's second MLS Cup (and they have since won two more and are the favourite to three-peat in seven week's time).

It begs the question. If MLS is open to relocation provided that the right investors and market are in place--and it sure seems like they are--then why shouldn’t those Canucks interested in bringing teams to their respective cities save themselves the $40 million expansion fee and cut to the chase of buying up a struggling team? It appears the casino folks have their eye on the most obvious candidate, but it's unclear who in Kansas City would notice if the Wiz were to leave town. Denver has never really taken for this whole soccer thing. And who knows how long Salt Lake can sustain interest after the novelty of a new stadium (which opens this Thursday) is gone.

Harsh? You bet, but if Ottawa, Montreal and Vancouver are serious about joining Toronto then they may want to start putting feelers out to see what American investors are out there looking to get out of the soccer game.

Four Canadian MLS teams by 2011? In the post sub-prime mortgage American world it's not all that absurd of a thought.

Is MLS the ultimate answer?

No, it's 42...

The Globe and Mail's Ben Knight had a very interesting post [On Soccer] the other day on how Toronto FC and the Montreal Impact have gone in drastically different directions since their draw in the final match of the Nutrilite Canadian Championships, which sent Montreal through to the CONCACAF Champions League. As Knight points out, Montreal's gone on to jump from 10th to 3rd in the USL standings (although they trail Seattle 2-1 after one game in the first round of the playoffs, a two-game total-goals series). They've also done very well in the Champions League: many, including Duane, expected they would crash and burn in the group stage (a very reasonable prediction at the time), but they're currently perched atop their group after a draw with Mexican powerhouse side Atalante and a win over Trinidad's Joe Public FC (the same team that embarrassed the New England Revolution of MLS by an aggregate score of 6-1 over two games). Joe Public isn't much of a minnow, either: they also happen to be owned [CBCSports.ca] by FIFA vice-president Jack Warner.*

*Aside: Does this not raise conflict of interest questions to anyone else? I'd certainly be concerned if Gary Bettman or Bill Daly ran an NHL franchise. Keep in mind that Warner's hugely influential in CONCACAF, so it's not like they're a long way removed from the decisions he makes or the impact he has.

For Toronto FC, though, the matches since that fateful July day have been extremely disappointing. They've only earned five points from nine matches, with two draws and one solitary win against six losses. As Knight writes, "The playoffs are gone, the season-long roster rebuild is a bust, and the league's most fanatical fans are looking at their season-ticket renewal forms, many with doubt and sadness in their otherwise lusty, giddy hearts." He then uses the teams' contrasting fortunes, combined with a quote from Randy Phillips' interview with Saputo in the Montreal Gazette, to suggest that Montreal perhaps is only interested in MLS on their terms.

Here's the full relevant quote from Saputo's interview:
Phillips: "Is the future of the franchise necessarily in Major League Soccer?"

Saputo: "There may be other options out there and we have to explore all the different ones. Right now, we're fine where we are. There is the aspect of MLS that's looming and we're going to take a look at that. Does it mean we're going to go into it at all costs? Not necessarily, but the soccer landscape is going to change over the next couple of years and we have to be smart and financially responsible about the decisions we make."

That is a fascinating quote at this point, given how many markets are actively battling for one of the few MLS expansion slots. Any suggestion that Montreal isn't going all-out is something new, and that might hurt them in a drive for one of the two slots in 2011.

There are reasons for Saputo to be cautious, though. MLS isn't looking quite as fantastic as it used to, especially when you take into account the dismal record of its clubs in the CONCACAF Champions League and the spending restrictions cranked so tight that Toronto FC can only spend [Neil Davidson, The Canadian Press via The Globe and Mail, August 19, 2008] $500,000 of the $3 million they got for Maurice Edu on player acquisitions, while the New York Red Bulls aren't even allowed [Ben Knight, On Soccer, August 29, 2008] to buy a USL striker for $200,000. At the same time, after the initial frenzy surrounding Beckham and the other designated players, interest in the league seems to be returning to normal levels, which aren't bad, but also aren't overly in favour of shelling out $40 million for the privilege of buying a franchise.

Moreover, Montreal would have to shell out a lot of dough to get their stadium up to MLS levels and then plenty more on player salaries, so $40 million isn't the entire cost here. When you've got a successful team that's drawing considerable amounts of fans already and gaining continent-wide exposure with their Champions League success, MLS perhaps becomes less imperative. The other thing to consider is that Saputo would have to go up against some great ownership bids in an attempt to gain one of the two slots for 2011, including Steve Nash and Greg Kerfoot in Vancouver, the New York Mets in their push for a second New York team, FC Barcelona's attempt to put a team in Miami and even Eugene Melnyk's surprisingly impressive Ottawa bid. Most of those owners have less options: it's MLS or bust for them, whereas Saputo appears to have a very successful fallback plan. Perhaps his strategy is to take the USL franchise in hand over the MLS ambitions in the bush.

However, that plan bears risks of its own. The USL is extremely viable and producing high-quality soccer at the moment, but who's to say how long that will last? As the number of MLS clubs increases, so will the poaching of the best USL players, decreasing the quality of that league's on-field product. Additionally, many of the strongest USL franchises are already on their way out (Seattle) or hoping to make the jump to MLS (Vancouver, Portland). If you lose your marquee franchises, your league suffers.

Furthermore, there's a certain advantage to being first. Look at the national coverage TFC gets compared to the Impact or the Vancouver Whitecaps. The small amount of attention paid to the Impact at the moment will undoubtedly diminish further if Vancouver and Ottawa get MLS franchises and Montreal remains in the USL: they'll be seen as the minor-league team and will be largely overlooked. The condescension towards the USL is bad enough in this country with only one Canadian MLS franchise: imagine what it would be like with three.

If expansion works out well for MLS and the league captures increasing ratings and exposure, you can bet that the franchise fees will only go up. In this way, if Saputo decides to stay put, it's not necessarily a safe move. He's gambling that the MLS will regress or stay around the same level and that the USL will continue to be viable, which may be as big of a risk as going for it now and shelling out the necessary cash. Staying put is perhaps less dangerous in the short term, but that could come back to haunt the Impact.