Showing posts with label NL Central. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NL Central. Show all posts

Friday, April 02, 2010

Jusssst a bit outside: the Chicago Cubs preview

Duty calls to preview the MLB season, providing up to 30 things somewhat about each of the 30 teams. At bat: the Chicago Cubs.
  1. More contemptible than the Yankees, in some respects: The late, great Bill Hicks' rhetorical question, "When did mediocrity and banality become something to aspire to?" resonates whenever people get rhapsodic about Wrigley Field.

    OK, so people head to the friendly confines to drink and score a phone number. You can basically do the same thing on Craigslist without getting sunburned.

  2. Filling their niche: You probably know teams with a payroll in the top 10 per cent of MLB make the playoffs 80% of the time. The Cubs recognize it's on them to fill out the other 20%.

  3. Over-under: 82½ wins

  4. Take the ... Over, since Lou Piniella is not a quitter.

  5. Getting creeky: The only regulars still in their 20s, catcher Geovany Soto and infielder Mike Fontenot, will likely hit seventh and eighth in the lineup.

  6. Trending: No. 1 starter Carlos Zambrano threw almost 40 fewer innings last season than he did in 2007.

  7. The Leafs of baseball: It's not so much having a captive market (even with a second team in town), it's that like the Leafs of a few seasons ago, they were tied up with a lot of dispensable players, such as starting pitchers Ryan Dempster and Randy Wells.

    (Actually, the old ownership owed as much to the ramshackle Harold Ballard-era Leafs as it did to MLSEL.)

  8. Charting their downfall: They won't score enough runs, even in their piddly penny-ante division.

  9. New meaning to ringside seats: Apparently, it's a rarity for a Cubs-White Sox interleague game to be played at night, since evening games bring out a different class of drinker. They're playing at night on June 26, though.

  10. Canadian connection: Former pitcher Steve (Slapper) Wilson, a Vancouver native, is the Pacific Rim scout who was responsible for signing Cubs shortstop of the future Hak-Ju Lee (picture Derek Jeter, except he hits left-handed and is Korean).

  11. The whole hope is eternal deal: Between Lee and Starlin Castro, the Cubs have two up-and-coming shortstops in the minors who each turn 20 years old this year.

  12. The need to know: That's not a slump their hitters are in; it's more like water finding its own level.

  13. The lesson of Milton Bradley: Bringing a DH over from the American League and expecting him to field a position works almost never.

  14. Ryne on time: Hall of Famer Ryne Sandberg is managing the Cubs' Triple-A team, so the clamour for him to take over the big club is inevitable.

  15. Outside shot: They have a 27% chance of making the playoffs by Diamond Mind's figuring.

  16. But they don't stay long: They've been swept 3-0 three of the four times they've made the playoffs in the wild-card era.

  17. Case of the Rick Mondays: You could look it up; the last homegrown Cubs outfielder who had any sustained success was Billy Williams, who played so long ago that he's getting a statue outside Wrigley.

  18. New rule: Predicting a team will finish with 85 wins is code for not being ready to admit they're going to suck out loud this season.

  19. What's Japanese for 'tweener: Kosuke Fukudome hits like a centrefielder but can't actually play centre.

  20. Future Hall of Very Gooder: It's tempting to say Alfonso Soriano, but it's not clear if he even met the criteria of being very good.

  21. PECOTA says: 78-84, tied-third NL Central, 715 runs scored, 742 against.

  22. In English, please: 102 years and counting.

    (Why 22? It was 22 years ago that the Cubs put in lights at Wrigley and expected to be congratulated for only being a half-century behind the rest of the baseball world.)

Thursday, April 01, 2010

Jusssst a bit outside: the Houston Astros preview

Duty calls to preview the MLB season, providing up to 30 things somewhat about each of the 30 teams, even the sucky ones. At bat: the Houston Astros.
  1. Presenting the 2006-07 Leafs, in spikes: They were 13th in runs scored and 14th in runs against in a 16-team league last season, which makes them a diamond equivalent to the John Ferguson Jr.-era Toronto Maple Leafs. Granted, even JFJ would have jettisoned Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman by this point.

  2. You know what you're getting: Jonah Keri summed it up well: "Owner Drayton McLane has passed down the same philosophy for as long as he's owned the team: Never sell off your stars, and never rebuild."

  3. Why you hear Drayton McLane and just picture the Rich Texan from The Simpsons: The Baseball Prospectus 2010 chapter on the Astros notes they were second-last in Payroll Efficiency Rating (the other PER) from 2006-09. Does that make leftfielder Carlos "RBI and Little Else" Lee the equivalent to the world's fattest racehorse?

    The Seattle Mariners were worst, for what it is worth. The most efficient teams were the Rays and Blue Jays. Please keep this on file in case Seattle ever gets close to winning something.

  4. Over-under: 73½ wins.

  5. Take the ... Over. The NL Central is so frustertaining (a word used when a division is entertaining since almost every team is frustrating is follow) that the 'Stros should stumble into 75 wins.

  6. Starting to slide: Long-time first baseman Lance Berkman starting the season on the DL has led to speculation his days are numbered with Houston, even though the Astros like to hang on to big names long after they've surpassed their usefulness, like NBC or the late-1980s New York Islanders.

  7. Long in the tooth: Roy Oswalt, only 32 years old, is already talking about retiring.

  8. Weighty moral questions: Root for prospect Koby Clemens to carve out his own niche as a corner infielder or hope he fails since it would be another burn on his old man?

  9. Magic Wandy: Left-hander Wandy Rodriguez has found that strata where he is as good a No. 2 starter as you'll find, until you put him on your fantasy team.

  10. The shame of it all: FanGraphs listed the Astros dead last in their organizational rankings. That's what a combo of big contracts, precious little player development (the main prospect of note is 19-year-old right-hander Jason Lyles) and next-to-no scouting outside of the U.S. will do for a ballclub.

  11. In case you weren't outraged: Minor-league players can barely afford to eat, but Carlos Lee is due $19 million this season.

  12. Bound to get a lot of hype: Shortstop Tommy Manzella, who is not so young at age 27, will fill out the "wheel" on The Score with some fielding gems.

  13. Now why is this good to know? The franchise has never lost 100 games in a season (it's lost 97 twice).

  14. Long-shot bet: Closer Matt Lindstrom becomes Houston's all-star representative since last few spots can be filled almost randomly with middling-to-good pitchers.

  15. Really: The damn hill in centrefield. At least it could have been named after Terry Puhl.

  16. Only in Texas ... Could Nolan Ryan be part of the ownership group for the Texas Rangers and the ownership group of the Astros' Triple-A affiliate, the Round Rock Express.

  17. PECOTA says: 78-84, tied-third NL Central, 697 runs scored, 723 runs allowed. (Subject to change slightly before the season starts.)

  18. In English, please: This team can't even bottom out properly.

    (Why only 18? In honour of their win in the longest post-season game ever against the Braves in 2005. It only feels like it was 20 years ago.)

Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Jusssst a bit outside: the Milwaukee Brewers preview

Duty calls to preview the MLB season with up to 30 things somewhat about each of the 30 teams. At bat: the Milwaukee Brewers.
  1. Hittin' a hundred: Everyone says Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder are capable of combining for 85-100 home runs. They probably are the NL's best 1-2 punch next to "Chase Utley and Ryan Howard" and "The guy who bats before Albert Pujols and Albert Pujols."

  2. Which is balanced out by: A pitching staff which allowed 207 home runs last season. Righty Yovani Gallardo (3.73 ERA in 185.2 innings) was a full run and a half per game than anyone else who made at least six starts.

  3. Over-under: 80½ wins

  4. Take the ... Over. The pitching staff should improve since it's just impossible to stay that bad.

  5. One team not liking the early spring: The rotation is a shambles after Gallardo, lefty Randy Wolf, mushballer Doug Davis and Dave Bush. Unfortunately, Milwaukee having a dome means they can't go with a three-man rotation and hope they're snowed out on the other days until May 1.

  6. Lacking in depth: What best illustrates the Brewers' offensive problems. Their No. 5 hitters scored only 80 runs last season, 10 less than the league champion Phillies got from the No. 6 slot. That's where the struggles of Corey Hart and now departed J.J. Hardy and Bill Hall really hurt.

  7. Too bad there's no U30 division: Perhaps the Brewers and Oakland Athletics need to make like some of the smaller national football federation which focus on the U20 World Cup. Seven of their eight regulars are under 30.

  8. Good luck with that: Brewers catchers threw out only 20% of would-be basestealers last season, which was the exact same rate new No. 1 catcher Gregg Zaun had last season in the other league.

  9. Prince too rich for their blood: It's just a matter of when Fielder will no longer be a Brewer. Small wonder Brewers owner Mark Attanasio has sounded the gong about having a salary cap, even if he only said it after his franchise lost out on a couple free agents.

  10. Maybe sportscasters making references to a lousy '80s pop singer is the problem: The most vexing concern among Brewers bloggers and message boards is figuring out what the hell happened to Corey Hart, who has produced less than league-average numbers by rightfielder standards the past two seasons. Some are even suggesting he go for Lasix surgery.

    Seriously, no more references to the other Corey Hart.

  11. Blind pig, acorn: Someone somewhere is making shortstop Alcides Escobar their Rookie of the Year pick.

  12. They have the Internet on computers now: Brewers fans have a tradition of camping outside Miller Park in cardboard shanties to buy tickets. Chalk it up as an entirely too subtle comparison on the limited effectiveness of StubHub.

  13. You can set your watch to: Trevor Hoffman getting his 600th career save (he is nine away) and some angry young man ranting about how it's a celebration of a near-meaningless statement.

  14. It's like they're sensitive about their proximity to the Cubbies: The ivy has been removed from the outfield fence at Miller Park.

  15. Future Hall of Very Gooder: Outfielder Jim Edmonds is a nice comeback story, making the team at age 39 after a season away.

    He is an eight-time Gold Glove winner, just like the only player who was elected to Cooperstown this year. He also has a higher career OPS+ than Andre Dawson.

  16. The ex-Jay factor: Former Bluebird Joe Inglett, who can stand in at six positions, made the team along with former catcher Gregg Zaun. Throw in pitcher David Bush, assistant GM Gord Ash, who answers to a Canadian, Doug Melvin, and the Brewers are one of the more hoser-friendly hardball concerns going.

  17. All the John Axford news that's fit to print: The pride of Port Dover, Ont. (just 66 kilometres southwest of Hamilton) is starting the season in Triple-A Nashville, but the 27-year-old righty reliever possesses a "snapdragon curve." The Brewers have a few more relievers kicking around than starting candidates, just like about every team.

  18. And don't forget: Backup catcher George Kottaras of Scarborough!

  19. Bet on Brett: Second baseman Brett Lawrie is starting the season in Double-A, which is heady for a 20-year-old Canadian middle infielder. He hit .274/.348/.454 in High-A before moving up.

  20. J.P. Ricciardi was strung up by his thumbs for less: The Brewers are generally considered a smart organization, but right-hander Jeff Suppan (on the disabled list) could collect $14.5 million US between Opening Day and when he's bought out after this season.

  21. Excellence in editing: Axford's name was misspelled "Acford" in a recent Brantford Expositor headline. It's only his hometown paper!

  22. Stuff your face, Milwaukee: Food Network-branded fare is now being served in the suites at Miller Park.

  23. Total reference moratorium: Yes, Hart shares a name with a crappy 1980s Canadian pop singer and Fielder's daddy was a famous ballplayer. Let us never speak of it again.

  24. PECOTA says: 78-84, tied-third NL Central, 734 runs scored, 766 against.

  25. In English, please: Milwaukee remains a drinking town with a baseball problem.

    Why 25? Milwaukee has to make a playoff run to earn the other five.

Saturday, March 27, 2010

Jusssst a bit outside: the Cincinnati Reds preview

Duty calls to preview the MLB season with 30 things somewhat about each of the 30 teams. At bat: the Cincinnati Reds.
  1. Too long: This is the 15th season since the last Reds division title and 20th since their last World Series championship.

    They are sixth on one writer's MLB Optimism Index, 20 spots ahead of first baseman Joey Votto's hometown team. They have some young talent and some older players who are just running out the clock. They could finish in the black for the first time since 2000.

  2. The Aroldicrats: Cuban left-hander Aroldis Chapman, whose representation had Jays fans on the hook in the winter, should show why he was worth the fuss. Prospect guru John Sickels figures Chapman should get a minimum of 15 starts in the minor leagues just to adapt to U.S. baseball.

    The Reds, who are playing it coy with Chapman the way teams always do before they farm out a prize prospect, probably haven't had an arm like his since they rented Hall of Famer Tom Seaver from the Mets for a few seasons in the late 1970s and early '80s.

  3. Over-under on wins: 78½

  4. Take the ... Over. This feels like one of those real solid 80- to 82-win National League Central teams. Cincy would need everything to fall into place. How often does that happen?

  5. Woe, Ohio: Greater minds could figure out how this would impact the standings, but Ohio has been one of the hardest-hit states during the U.S.' economic reckoning. The Reds and Cleveland were third-last and second-last in their leagues in attendance last season.

  6. Votto's feeling fine: The sweet-swinging Toronto native will be hard-pressed to have a .981 on-base-plus-slugging like he did last season (really high BABIP and what-not), but he's established as an elite hitter.

  7. The other young arm: For all the Chapman buzz, Rob Neyer feels last season's first-round choice, right-hander Mike Leake, should be Cincy's No. 5 starter.

  8. Still managed by Dusty Baker: He's Cito Gaston without the two World Series titles but mad name-dropping ability.

  9. Where patience is a double entendre: Please don't underestimate that lefty-hitting outfielder Jay Bruce is still only 23 years old and has plenty of time to become more disciplined (he on-based just .314 and .303 his first two seasons).

    It does seem odd his biggest comp for the 23-year-old lefty outfielder is Barry Bonds with infamous bust Wily Mo Pena running a close second.

  10. Great spending: Does any mid-market team better demonstrate baseball's salary structure? The Reds' entire outfield will make $2.2 million this season. Meantime, they have four $10-million-per-players, including closer Francisco Cordero (who chucked a whole 66.2 innings last season) and fast-fading 30-something third baseman Scott Rolen.

  11. Clearing the stables: One storyline for the Reds set up by the Baseball Prospectus 2010 chapter is whether they jettison Cordero and second baseman Brandon Phillips for more cost-efficient replacements (and finally give Todd Frazier a chance to start!).

    It will be great fun watching the oldsters in Cincy who have been kicking around since the Big Red Machine days howl about punting on the season, when dumping salary would help the Reds' chances in 2011 and '12.

  12. One reason any optimism is very guarded: The bullpen overachieved last season (3.56 ERA). Relief performance may largely ruled by randomness.

  13. High maintenance: Right-hander Johnny Cueto is high-risk, high-reward, like a lot of pitchers below age 25.

  14. Speaking of: Please do the in-one-ear routine on young ace Edinson Vólquez, who is out for the season after Tommy John surgery. He'll make it back whenever.

    That's right, a young arm affected by Dusty Baker's decisions. (The Beep notes Vólquez "threw 110 or more pitches in six of his last seven starts in 2008 ... for a Reds team more than 20 games out of first place.")

  15. Waiting for any righty: The Reds play in one of the most generous home run parks (2.31 per game last season), but their only right-handed power comes from Phillips.

  16. Like lightning: Centrefielder Drew Stubbs swiped 46 bases in Triple-A last season.

  17. Can I try my career over? All outfielder Jonny Gomes has ever needed was a freak ballpark that panders to a right-handed hitter and a league that uses the DH.

  18. The curse of Johnny Bench: Another "zero or five" anniversary is that it's been 30 years since the best catcher in National League history moved to another position. The Reds have been starved for success behind the plate pretty much ever since. None of their top 20 prospects are catchers, too.

  19. Mr. Durability: Bronson Arroyo throws 200 very average innings every season. Don't miss the point: He makes it 200.

  20. Overestimate: The other veteran starting pitcher, Aaron Harang, has fast regressed since his 16-6 season three years ago.

  21. The great debate: That fifth starter spot will either go to the 22-year-old Leake, the college boy from Arizona State who's never pitched in the minors, or the 23-year-old lefty Travis Wood, who spent five years in the bus leagues. Nice little debate setting up there over whether college or pro is the better route.

  22. Nine years later, still amazing: Aging shortstop Orlando Cabrera was actually the Expos' cleanup hitter 47 times back in 2001.

  23. Rejoice: Montrealer Phillippe Valiquette is on the Reds' 40-man roster. He's basically the left-handed francophone version of Milwaukee's John Axford, a Canadian specialist reliever who throws serious gas but walks a lot of batters.

  24. Has to be a coincidence: Utilityman Drew Sutton played at Baylor, so he's got at least one Final Four pick left in his bracket. He also has the same last name as a former Kentucky coach, so that might make two.

  25. More great moments in glib comparisons: Good-field no-fit shortstop Paul Janish is to the National League in 2010 as John McDonald was to the AL in 2007.

  26. Future Hall of Very Gooder: Scott Rolen is a seven-time Gold Glover, exudes the kind of grittiness that could make Bob Costas and George Will weep, and he's OPS-plused a lifetime 124. That will get him some Cooperstown support in a few years, but judging by his comps, not nearly enough.

  27. Taking the Reds part a little literally: The Reds signed a Cuban lefty (Chapman), have an outfielder whose names conjures up the old USSR (Wladimir Balentien) and Votto is from Canada, so according to Ann Coulter that makes him a Communist.

  28. The Arthur effect: Lefty reliever Arthur Rhodes has finished 15 of his 18 seasons with a team that finished above. 500, including 10 consecutive. The only time he was in danger of finishing with a losing team was 2008, when he managed to get traded away by a Mariners team on its way to 101 losses.

  29. PECOTA says: 77-85, fifth NL Central, 703 runs scored, 739 against.

    (Houston and Milwaukee are pegged as 78-84 teams, so don't put too much stock in the fifth.)

  30. In English please: The Reds always say they're going someplace fun, but it always turns out to be Denny's.

Thursday, March 04, 2010

Jusssst a bit outside: the Pittsburgh Pirates preview

Duty calls to preview the MLB season. In the spirit of that, we'll have 30 notes and errata on each team (20 plus 10, eh), in reverse order of PECOTA projection. At bat: the Pittsburgh Pirates.
  1. Bucs bandwagon: The time is now for an AL East widower to adopt the Pirates, as much as one can support a team in the National League, the other white meat of MLB.

    The Pirates will turn it around eventually. They have a lot of history, are a reasonable driving distance from southern Ontario and play in a beautiful ballpark. Besides, Pittsburgh teams, such as the NFL Steelers and NHL Penguins, are a go-to for the kind of fan who needs you to know her/his team was picked organically. This kind of fan also wants to feel blue-collar, without ever doing blue-collar work.

    Pittsburgh is the safest place for that out of all the northern U.S. sports markets. Philadelphia fans can sniff out a poseur at 75 yards and are quick to anger. Aligning with the Buffalo Bills and/or Sabres carries a high risk of having your heart ripped out repeatedly, for real.

  2. GeraldM on Yahoo!, would you like to present the rebuttal? "Why again are you writing about the Pirates ? NOBODY CARES ABOUT THE FREAKIN PIRATES !!! The have sucked for their entire history and will continue to suck for generations to come. I GUARANTEE they lose between 125 and 140 games this season. They have NO TALENT of any kind, anywhere, they never have and they never will."

  3. Keep payroll low, build slow: The Pirates, 2-3 years away from being a competitor, do not seem like a repeat of the Florida Marlins, a team which cuts back to the bone to protect its profits at the long-term expense of the product. Pretty much any everyday player of note (Jason Bay, Freddy Sanchez, Nate McLouth) has been traded over the past two seasons, but they weren't going to be around long enough to be part of the solution, ergo, they were part of the problem.

    McLouth'scomment when jokingly asked whether all the traded players should start a newsletter: "No. You don't want to pay that much for postage."

  4. Crazy's all they got until he arrives: Cleanup hitter of the future Pedro Alvarez posted a .914 OPS in his first full season. That makes him like the Jesse Jane of prospect porn.

  5. Cutch is clutch: Centrefielder Andrew McCutchen on-based .365 and slugged .471 as a 22-year-old rookie. There is more where that came from; think Carl Crawford-lite.

  6. Why run a Pirates preview? Why do it today? Because the NFL's salary cap expired at midnight and the Pirates' 17 consecutive losing seasons goes to show what can happen in uncapped leagues. You're also owed one Pirates preview where their skein of suck is not the first point of reference.

  7. Zach Duke: good bad-team pitcher or just an underachiever like most of us? The left-hander was Pittsburgh's all-star rep and kept his ERA just north of 4.00, but it's going on five years since he was a bright hope. The longer the wait ...

  8. To second chances! First baseman Jeff Clement, whose career as a catcher stalled due to knee injuries, is trying to get it together with the Pirates. He was drafted No. 3 overall in 2005 ahead of Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun, Ricky Romero, Troy Tulowitzski, McCutchen and Matt Garza, whom most people have actually heard of.

  9. Speaking of ... There's outfielder Lastings Milledge, on his third organization.

  10. No sense of marketing: New shortstop Bobby Crosby should have been forced to wear No. 87. A Pirates jersey with "Crosby 87" on the back would be the team's best seller.

  11. Why there is optimism: The Pirates' farm system used to be the 26th-best in MLB, according to Baseball America; it has already risen 10 spots to 16th.

  12. Makeover magic: The Pirates remodeled the clubhouse of their spring training facility. That should singlehandedly change the culture. Bill Simmons is writing a 20,000-word thesis on the effect of clubhouse remodelling on team performance. It will in no way be axiomatic.

  13. The starting pitching is actually not bad: Duke, Princeton-educated righty Ross Ohlendorf (3.92 ERA, 1.23 WHIP in '09), lefty Paul Maholm (4.44, 1.44) are an adequate front end of a starting rotation. They're so spectacularly adequate that NBC is giving them a late-night talk show.

  14. Strange but true: Last season's preview noted, "MLB.com's Pirates beat writer is Jenifer Langosch. She has one N and about 100 Ls to cover this season." The Pirates lost only 99 games, but remember, one was cancelled.

    Oddly enough, Langosch's blog now refers to her as "Jen."

  15. Fantasy baseball is designed to break your heart: Just check what outfielder Garrett Jones (21 homers in a half-season last year) did in high-leverage situations last season. Someone will take a flier on him on your draft day, and you will hold your laughter.

  16. He's average-sized in Japan, but big here: Second baseman Akinori Iwamura is fast becoming the Pirates' most popular player.

  17. The difference was signability: The Pirates' first-rounder from 2007, Daniel Moskos, isn't even rated as one of the team's Top 20 prospects. At least they signed him, right?

  18. They might keep losing, but not with the same guys: Only eight players on the 40-man roster were there when GM Neal Huntington was hired.

  19. Not that you needed proof ex-GM Dave Littlefield really ached: The Pirates' second-rounder from three seasons ago, the awesome named Duke Welker, had an 0-11 record with a 5-plus ERA in Single-A balll last season. Oh, and he was repeating that level.

  20. Tough call: Celebrate the 50th anniversary of their unlikely 1960 World Series win over the Yankees, or the 20th anniversary of Barry Bonds' first MVP season in '90?

  21. Another anniversary that will pass unmarked: It's been 20 years since the Pirates finished in the top half of the league in attendance, and 30 since the franchise did so during a season where it didn't make the playoffs. Yet they're still around and the Expos are gone.

    Keeping it positive, though: There's plenty of good seats available on the bandwagon.

  22. Roberto Clemente. That is all.

  23. A commentary on American history: Former Pirates pitcher Jim Bibby's Associated Press obit mentioned that he threw a no-hitter, but left out that he served in Vietnam.

  24. Time and fevers: Bibby, who died last month, is the fourth member of the Pirates' 1979 World Series-winning team to shuffle off this mortal coil.

  25. They have the No. 2 pick in the June draft: And right on cue, the best college pitching prospect, Louisiana State's Anthony Ranaudo, has come down with a sore elbow.

  26. Not so long ago, he was in Ottawa: Former Lynx manager John Russell is in the last season of his contract. Russell was a candidate to manage the Texas Rangers, who are a favourite to make the playoffs.

  27. Other stories about famous people: The comedian Lenny Bruce was at Forbes Field when the Pirates' Bill Mazeroski hit the winning walk-off home run off the Yankees' Ralph Terry in the ninth inning of the '60 World Series.

    It was the first major-league baseball game Bruce ever attended. It was also the last. What could top it, really?

  28. Basically, he joined another farm team. Ohlendorf interned with the U.S. Agriculture Department during the winter.

  29. PECOTA says: 71-91, sixth NL Central, 663 runs scored, 781 runs allowed.

  30. In English, please: Hockey writers in town to cover a Penguins playoff run should use their off-day to visit PNC Park.

Tuesday, October 06, 2009

Zen Dayley: We might yet get saved from a Red Sox-Yankees ALCS

This time of year, you're bound to hear all sorts of October-only baseball fans coming out of the woodwork to make mountains of random statistical molehills.

For instance, the Philadelphia Phillies are vulnerable because closer Brad Lidge has sucked out loud. They're throwing Cliff Lee in Game 1 instead of Cole Hamels, who was vice-president of awesome in the 2008 playoffs but pitched like the assistant undersecretary of only OK for most of this season (but found his form the past couple weeks.)

The L.A. Dodgers dawdled and dragged their feet before finally wrapping up their division. The L.A. Angels have lost to the Boston Red Sox three consecutive times in the playoffs. The Yankees will not have Jorge Posada's bat in the lineup for a couple games, since weak-hitting Jose Molina is the personal catcher for A.J. Burnett. The Twins are scrappy -- they got shut out only four times all season!

All of that is well and good, but you might succumb to paralysis by analysis. The Bill James Playoff Predictor makes it nice and simple. (Or not.) It might be just as off and more serious Seamheads have likely discredited it, but at least it's is a fully hacked-out framework suitable for clipping and saving:
  1. 1 point to the lead team for each half-game in the standings
  2. 3 points to the team that scored more runs
  3. 14 points to the team with fewer doubles
  4. 12 points to the team with more triples
  5. 10 points to the team with more home runs
  6. 8 points to the team with the lower team batting average
  7. 8 points to the team that committed fewer errors
  8. 7 points to the team that turned more double plays
  9. 7 points to the team that walked more batters
  10. 19 points to the team that had more shutouts
  11. 15 points to the team whose ERA was lower
  12. 12 points to the team that has been in postseason most recently or went further
  13. 12 points to the team that won season series.

Please click through to find out who is going to win. Long story short, you won't be so happy that the Minnesota Twins and not the Detroit Tigers won the AL Central title:

TWINS vs. YANKEES
  1. Yankees were 16.5 games better, 103-59 to 87-76. (33 points)
  2. Yankees scored 98 more runs, 915-817. (Yankees 3)
  3. Yankees hit more doubles. (Twins 14)
  4. Twins hit more triples. (Twins 12)
  5. Yankees had 244-171 edge in home runs (Yankees 10)
  6. Yankees hit .283, Twins .274 give or take a point. (Twins 8)
  7. Twins made 76 errors, the Yankees had 86. (Twins 8)
  8. Both teams turned 131 double plays. (no points and may God have mercy on your soul)
  9. Yankees walked 574 batters, Twins 460. (Yankees 7)
  10. Yankees had eight shutouts. The Twins had seven. (Yankees 19)
  11. Yankees had a 4.28 ERA, Twins 4.50. (Yankees 15)
  12. Yankees last reached the playoffs in 2007, Twins in 2006. (Yankees 12)
  13. Yankees won the season series 7-0. (Yankees 12)

    Totals: Yankees 111, Twins 50
RED SOX vs. ANGELS
  1. Angels were two games better, 97-65 to Boston's 95-67. (Angels 4)
  2. Angels have 883-872 in runs scored (Angels 3)
  3. The Red Sox hit 335 doubles, the Angels 293. (Angels 14)
  4. Angels hit 33 triples, Red Sox 25. (Angels 12)
  5. Red Sox have 212-173 edge in home runs. (Red Sox 10)
  6. Angels hit .285, Red Sox hit .270. (Red Sox 8)
  7. Red Sox made 82 errors, Angels made 85. (Red Sox 8)
  8. Angels turned 174 double plays, Red Sox 119 (the most and the fewest in the AL, although that says more about each team's pitching staff). (Angels 7)
  9. 7 points to the team that walked more batters (Red Sox 7)
  10. The Angels had 13 shutouts, the Red Sox had 11. (Angels 19)
  11. The Red Sox had a 4.35 ERA, the Angels' was 4.45. (Red Sox 15)
  12. Red Sox were in the ALCS last season after eliminating Angels in division series. (Red Sox 12)
  13. Angels won season series, 5-4. (Angels 12)

    Total: Angels 71, Red Sox 60
ROCKIES vs. PHILLIES
  1. Phillies were 93-69, one game better than the Rockies' 92-70. (Phillies 2)
  2. Phillies scored 820 runs, Rockies 804. (Phillies 3)
  3. Phillies hit 312 doubles, Rockies hit 300. (Rockies 14)
  4. Rockies hit 50 triples, Phillies hit 35. (Rockies 12)
  5. Phillies hit 224 homers, the Rockies hit 190. (Phillies 10)
  6. Rockies hit .261, Phillies .258. (Phillies 8)
  7. Phillies made 76 errors, Rockies made 87 (combined that is only 10 more than the Washington Nationals, true story). (Phillies 8)
  8. Rockies turned 144 double plays, Phillies 132. (Rockies 7)
  9. Rockies walked 528 batters, Phillies 489. (Rockies 7)
  10. Phillies had nine shutouts, the Rockies had seven. (Phillies 19)
  11. The Phillies had a lower ERA, 4.16 to 4.24, but the Rockies had a better ERA+ (106 to 103) and despite Coors Field, allowed only slightly more runs per game (4.41-4.38). (Rockies 15)
  12. 12 points to the team that has been in postseason most recently or went further (Phillies 12)
  13. Phillies won the season series, 4-2. (Phillies 12)

    Total: Phillies 74, Rockies 55
CARDINALS vs. DODGERS
  1. Dodgers were four games better, 95-67 to 91-71. (Dodgers 8)
  2. Dodgers scored 780 runs, St. Louis 730. (Dodgers 3)
  3. Cardinals have 294-278 edge in doubles. (Dodgers 14)
  4. Dodgers have 39-29 edge in triples. (Dodgers 12)
  5. Cardinals hit 160 home runs, Dodgers hit 145. (Cardinals 10)
  6. Dodgers hit .270, Cardinals .263. (Cardinals 8)
  7. Dodgers had 83 errors to Cardinals' 96. (Dodgers 8)
  8. Cardinals turned 167 double plays, Dodgers 134. (Cardinals 7)
  9. Dodgers walked 584 batters, Cardinals 460. (Dodgers 7)
  10. Cardinals had 11 shutouts, Dodgers had nine. (Cardinals 19)
  11. Dodgers had a 3.41 ERA to Cardinals' 3.66. (Dodgers 15)
  12. Dodgers reached NLCS in 2008. (Dodgers 12)
  13. Cardinals won the season series, 5-2. (Cardinals 12)

    Total: Dodgers 79, Cardinals 56
Enjoy the post-season. Is there any chance we'll see a promo for George Lopez's new talk show?

Friday, July 31, 2009

Zen Dayley: Halladay stays, Rolen goes, and so should that attitude

Hang on tightly, let go lightly.

The straight from the gut is that keeping Roy Halladay and moving third baseman Scott Rolen to the Cincinnati Reds calls to mind a line from The Simpsons when Homer got a dishonorable discharge from the U.S. Navy: "It's the most any of us could have hoped for." Thirteen more Halladay starts, plus several million off next season's payroll? Score! Great move, Paul Beeston J.P. Ricciardi!

The wild guess that the juice (sorry for the double entendre, Red Sox Nation) was not worth the squeeze with regard to the Rogers Jays trading Halladay actually turned out to be right ("I know, kids, I'm scared too."). Granted, sometimes making moves to appease fans can be very bad for a team's record.

Rolen will be missed the first time the third baseman they got for him, 26-year-old Edwin Encarnacion, uncorks a throw that reminds us there is no fair catch rule in Canada.

Whoever is making the calls seems to have shrewdly gauged the law of diminishing returns with Rolen. He is 34 years old. He has only been healthy two of the past five seasons. In case people forgot (or never knew to begin with), was in Toronto because he asked out of St. Louis.

Taken together, Halladay's Non-Independence Day and people being upset over seeing Rolen go to some wrongheaded thinking. Who are we, White Sox fans?

This is not an apologia for the Roger Jays. Stephen Brunt nailed it when he wrote of Rogers, "there is a reason the NFL forbids corporate ownership of its franchises."

It is more an appeal for some clear eyes to go along with the full hearts of those who hang in season after also-ran season. One enduring belief in my whole watching baseball through adult eyes life is that the entire history of the game is a history of money.

That is a main reason why the Yankees are pretty much always on top. The only exceptions were when they were, wait for it, owned by a media conglomerate (CBS in the late '60s and early '70s) and the period when George Steinbrenner was at his most megalomaniacal, demanding the Yankees trade away future all-stars such as Fred McGriff, Doug Drabek, and of course, Jay Buhner ("Ken Phelps, Ken Phelps") to plug leaks on the big club.

The Boston Red Sox had ownership issues around that time; old Tom Yawkey, a sole proprietor, died in 1976 and the franchise was kind of circling the drain until his widow passed. It took another decade beyond that before John Henry, Larry Lucchino and Tom Werner got the Red Sox. That is a big piece of understanding which is left out when people hearken back on the Jays' glory years, 1983-93. The twin banes of their existence were both a mess in hindsight.

Baseball also had a two-division format in each league and a balanced schedule (AL teams played 13 games vs. each division rival instead of the current 18 or 19), which also levelled the playing field. Part of the reason that changed is ESPN. The rule of thumb two decades ago was that regular-season baseball was a write-off in terms of the U.S. TV audience. A 162-game season, as opposed to the NFL's 16, means there was not enough at stake to draw in the casual viewer. NFL fans can count on seeing certain personalities. There's nothing like that in baseball.

ESPN refuted that and Bud Selig, who is no dummy, fulfilled their need to play up rivalries by creating the unbalanced schedule and interleague play. People can kick and scream about ESPN, but a lot of their themes filter up from the audience. By and large, people want to see the Sox and Yanks ad nauseam.

That illustrates why baseball has an unbalanced schedule while carrying on as if it is a fair fight for the eight playoff berths. It sucks. However, deep-down, as fans people have to accept the sporting tail wags the business dog. The Red Sox and Yankees are also paired with regional sports networks (NESN and the YES network). The difference for the Rogers Jays, to borrow from a comment good friend Pete Toms left at ShysterBall when the Halladay soap opera premiered, "There just aren’t enough ball fans here." There were only 24,000 people at Halladay's last home start, which Rogers Sportsnet did not even broadcast to the entire country. Some show of love. It's enough to make one utter the words "death spiral," but if the Pittsburgh Pirates haven't been moved after 17 losing seasons in a row, the Jays should be safe.

This is straying farther afield than anticipated. The point was to address the derision, some of it Twitter-amplified, about dealing Rolen and keeping Halladay, and to reiterate the folly of falling in love with players instead of falling in like, unless it's for humourous effect (here one thinks of The Tao dubbing Rolen GBOAT for Greatest Blue Jay of All Time).

The Jays did what they said they would. In Mike Wilner's phrasing, "They listened, they weren't blown away," so they passed. It is amusing, as others have pointed out, that the same people who said Ricciardi was unfit to make this deal will now rip him for not making said deal.

(By the way, within a hour after that became official, the NHL's Edmonton Oilers have said they are officially not interested in making a trade for disgruntled Dany Heatley. Honestly, it was just ass-talking writ large to say two weeks ago that the Jays would "trade Halladay the same day the Ottawa Senators deal Dany Heatley.")

The upshot is that there is still time to work out something amenable for Halladay, as Bart Given wrote before the trade deadline. The price tag might be lower, but it will still be more than the two compensatory draft choices a team gets for losing a big-time free agent.
"Assuming the mandate of remains the same, the Blue Jays will try and move their ace beginning in November. His value will be less than right now, as he will have just six months left under his current contract. On the positive side, there will be more interested teams in the mix as organizations ponder the opportunity to build their off-season around acquiring Roy Halladay.

"From a fan perspective it has to be torture. It will be like a farewell tour for the remainder of the season. I guess some fans will hold out hope ownership changes itss mind and tells Ricciardi to pull him off the market – or that no trade package is good enough. Unlikely – but possible I guess."
As for complaining about the loss of Rolen, please. Beyond Aaron Hill, who is signed through 2014 counting club options, the rest of the Jays infield consisted of three likeable 30-somethings they can move out for a younger and/or more productive player (whether one materializes, well...).

True, Rolen is hitting .320. However, his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is an unsustainable .342 (most players come down to the median, which is around .290). Going month by month, he just had a 200-point drop in OPS from June (.966) to July (.761), and that was still with an average BABIP (.301). You don't make calls based on one month, but one wonders if his July performance was closer to reality.

Please keep in mind Rolen was acquired straight up for Troy Glaus, who hasn't played all season. You could say the deal was Glaus for Encarnacion and two relievers with some potential. From FanGraphs:
"Josh Roenicke looks like a decent middle reliever who will be glad to get off the Louisville-Cincinnati shuttle. His fastball has some giddyup and he throws a solid cutter as well.

"Zachary Stewart is the 'get' of the trade. He has a 92-95 MPH fastball with good sink and a hard cutting 82-85 MPH slider. He’s quickly climbed the ladder, pitching at High-A, Double-A and now Triple-A, and has a cumulative 2.92 FIP (fielding-independent pitching) in 92 innings pitched. He pitched mostly out of the bullpen last year but is showing some good promise as a starter. He’s a solid B grade pitcher.
Of course, that would be too honest and rational. It's just that people shouldn't start dismaying over Rolen. The Jays picked up some young talent for very little. Raptors GM Bryan Colangelo did that with his trade with the Golden States for guard Marco Belinelli this week and was hailed as a genius.

For pity's sake, when all this was going down, a friend who knows better started dismaying about Hill leaving. Of course, he'll leave someday. All players do. And one day the sun will explode and since cockroaches and columnists are all that will survive, they’ll blame that on J.P. Ricciardi, too.

Sunday, July 26, 2009

Liveblogging for The Score

A little shameless self-promotion: Your humble agent will be liveblogging this afternoon's St. Louis Cardinals-Philadelphia Phillies game for The Score. It's a 1:35 p.m. first pitch, so we'll strike up the band around 1:20.

In other words, in Sageritaville you might hate the NL's antiquated rules, but you're OK with making a little scratch off their games. It's a matchup of two first-place teams, although the Cardinals could end up in second in NL Central by the time the day is done.

Todd Wellemeyer (7-8, 5.68, 1.73 WHIP) is throwing for the Cardinals vs. the Phillies' Joe Blanton (6-4, 4.24, 1.33). Philly fans fans have their eyes on two games this aft, since Pedro Martinez is pitching for the Clearwater Threshers – whose manager is Ernie Whitt – this afternoon in a minor league game.

Yes, Ernie Whitt and Matt Stairs are both in the Phillies organization. Apparently they really like stubby-legged balding guys who hit everything to right field.

Of course, the latest is that the Phillies rejected a Blue Jays trade proposal, meaning this won't be an opportunity to scout Roy Halladay's future teammates.

Sunday, July 19, 2009

DocWatch: If they took our Halladay, where to?

When something is out of your hands, you might as well mine it for humour.

At the very least, that's the intellectual justification for posting on Roy Halladay, whose next home start could come Friday vs. the Tampans at Rogers Centre (or not). He proved himself a friend of gamblers and Seamheads who will take baseball any way they can get it but can take only so much of Sportsnet's telecasts by needing only two hours, 15 minutes to six-hit the Boston Red Sox. With the Bostonians' propensity for arguing balls and strikes, you could say, "It was vintage Roy Halladay and the Red Sox brought the whine."

After the 3-1 win where he threw only 27 balls to 33 hitters, Halladay's WHIP is 1.07 and his strikeout-to-walk ratio is a sick 113-17. A 3:1 ratio is solid, 6:1 would fit right in on Ridiculous Day down at the deli. There's the damn trade talk, though, and Phillies prospect Michael Taylor does offer a ton of potential.
"The Phillies remain nearly everyone's favorite to land star Blue Jays pitcher Roy Halladay, and the teams are believed to have advanced to the point where they have discussed several of Philadelphia's top prospects — including outfielder Michael Taylor, shortstop Jason Donald and pitcher Carlos Carrasco — although, there's no evidence yet that the Phillies are relenting on top pitching prospect Kyle Drabek.

"If Philly agrees to surrender Drabek, one competing executive said, 'they might get (Halladay) real quick.' " — SI.com
Under the heading of "thanks, Captain Obvious," the optics of trading within the division — GM-cest — are so bad the possibility should not be considered. A Jays fan should figure out which team would be an acceptable destination, just as Nordberg's wife in the first Naked Gun movie was told not to wait too long to fill out those organ donor cards. It also helps if the reasoning, so-called, is completely random and as irrational as possible. It's also irrespective of what the Jays might get in return, since that is J.P. Ricciardi's concern.
  1. Milwaukee Brewers — It works on so many levels. The Jays were pwned by the Brewers long before the term was coined, the Brewers seem to have sucked up to Canada and Milwaukee is cool in an avocado-coloured furniture kind of way.

    You would never hear this in the Toronto media whose baseball memory only covers the years 1989-93, but two small-market Midwestern teams, the Brewers and Kansas City Royals, have hand on the Jays, in the Costanzian sense, and it can never be rectified. The Royals, of course, eliminated a two-game deficit in the 1985 playoffs and kept the Jays out of the World Series. Two years later, when the Jays and Tigers engaged in one of the great divisional races of the pre-wild card era, the Brewers played spoiler by sweeping a late-season series in Toronto. That is tough to avenge, since the Brewers were liberated from the American League (coincidentally, Bud Selig used to be their owner) and moved to the NL in 1998. The only way is if there's a Milwaukee-Toronto World Series.

    The Brewers also have a Canadian GM and assistant GM, Doug Melvin and Gord Ash, and B.C.-born bonus baby Brett Lawrie will be a fast-riser through their farm system. It's like they're cosying up to Canada.

    Last but not least, Milwaukee might seem like a hick town. Well, there are two kinds of hick towns, the ones which are dull and boring (ahem, where I do live again?) and those ones which are quirky. This is coming from a guy who's never lived there, but Milwaukee falls toward the latter. Brewers fans sing the obscure second verse of Beer Barrel Polka just to be different. It's assumed there's a bit or irony in Green Bay Packers football fans wearing those Cheeseheads (if there's a God in heaven, it better be ironic, because those people get to vote). Besides, anyone hard up for a liberal oasis can always drive over to the nearby state capital, Madison, where one learns not to even bat an eye at women picketing topless. Point being, Milwaukee is OK.

  2. L.A. Dodgers — Dodger Stadium's park factor is 94 for pitchers, which in the short run might help Halladay shave a few points off his earned-run average. That might help in some future Hall of Fame election. They also have the best chance of advancing to the World Series, an event that was played in Canada a couple times in the 1990s.

    The big caveat is that it would just be a question of when L.A. Times clown columnist Bill Plaschke would start using Halladay as a political football in his regularly scheduled anti-Manny Ramírez screeds. Doc is not a political prop or a rhetorical splitting wedge. It demeans him when columnists do that, something certain people in Toronto did not pay heed to the past three years when they were cracking on A.J. Burnett.

  3. Philadelphia Phillies — The most "logical landing spot" (John Heyman, SI.com) for Halladay is also the place where, fire up the old refrain, they booed Santa Claus/cheered when Michael Irvin broke his neck/boo when couples get engaged on the video screen. The greatest living baseball player, Michael Jack Schmidt (548 home runs and he never took a steroid or judging ballplayers or more recent vintage who did), also got booed once in a while.

    Point being, though, that's all cliché and stereotype. Perhaps the reason they boo in Philly because they care unconditionally. That's more than can be said for certain northeastern U.S. cities which, not naming names, barely noticed they had a NFL team before 2001.

    The Phillies have a decent shot at returning to the World Series. Pat Gillick works for them. Matt Stairs is there. What's not to like?

  4. St. Louis Cardinals — Good god, no. What comes to mind with St. Louis is a Deadspin user saying last week that while Busch Stadium is always a sea of Cardinal red, most of those fans are wearing "cheap $11 jersey T-shirts of some average white player."

  5. Chicago White Sox — Their owner, Jerry Reinsdorf, is the World Series-cancelling, NBA dynasty-dynamiting plutocrat whom Gary Bettman would rather have as a NHL owner than Jim Balsillie, who actually wants to spend money on a team. That takes care of that. The White Sox are the 10th-richest team in baseball, but act like they're a small-market underdog next to the cross-town Chicago Cubs.

  6. Detroit Tigers — Make your own joke about the Michigan economy, but don't be too cruel. Geographically speaking, Detroit is too close for comfort for a Jays fan, even if it's out of the division.

  7. Texas Rangers — Imagine trading a player to a team whose owner is hemorrhaging money. This is not a serious suggestion, but it's hard to get one's mind wrapped around the idea that the Rangers are even allowed to make such a trade in the wake of MLB giving them a bailout.
More teams will be added in accordance with whatever teams Ken Rosenthal swears are "flying under the radar."

Related:
As trade deadline nears, Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay on everyone's list (Bill Madden, N.Y. Daily News)

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Joey Votto makes fans, reveals other fans' hang-ups

From the when-the-going-gets-weird files: Some sports fans would be more comfortable with a gay ballplayer than one who, as Joey Votto self-defined, is dealing with "real life shit."

Please bear in mind it's best to focus on the positive. Votto, the Cincinnati Reds slugger who's from Toronto, handled it like a champ on Tuesday when he sat in the dugout at Rogers Centre and calmly explained (full audio is on YouTube) how the death of his dad, Joseph, at age 52 last summer led to what the Reds would only call "stress-related issues." Most of the media coverage was empathetic. The announced crowd of 30,000-plus gave him a warm ovation when he came to bat in the top of the first inning. It showed how much society has turned the corner with mental health issues, even within the last 10 years. Twenty-five years ago, Jim Eisenreich, who had Tourette's Syndrome, was run out of baseball for a time because people took his nervous disorder to be a "case of nerves."

It is amusing to read after the fact was that in some dark corners of the Internet, there was persistent speculation that Votto is gay. In other words, some twitbags could not comprehend a 25-year-old ballplayer who just lost a parent being depressed, so that has to be their default for everything. It's so stupid. No one should making that speculation about anyone. Doesn't that beat all?

Jim Buzinski at Outsports.com wrote, "I think this is a weird kind of progress. It was not too long ago that many fans denied there were gay players in pro sports. The acceptance of these rumors as being at least plausible shows that the average fan realizes that his favorite team might have a gay player."

(Jeff Pearlman noted that it is puerile to traffic in the "is-he-or-isn’t-he-gay? bullsh$# we affix to celebrities.")

Anyway, this is really about Votto. This space was already duty-bound to cheer for him since he is a Canadian ballplayer, but hopefully he made a few fans with the way he handled everything on Tuesday. For someone who is supposed to be a very private guy, it was pretty illuminating.

There is a fine balance for people with anxiety and depression. You need to make people aware of your condition, since at best it can only be managed (whether by meds or holistically, i.e., diet, exercise, staying engaged socially). At the same time, one cannot demand sympathy. Everyone else has their own stuff to deal with. The Cincy Enquirer ran most of his quotes in full:
"I got sick in May. I had the upper respiratory thing and the ear infection. It was the time away from baseball and recovering from being sick when, for the first time, all the emotions that I had been pushing to the side, that I had been dealing with and struggling with in the winter, hit me. They hit me a hundred times more than I had been dealing with.

"I was taken out of three separate games. The first game it was a combination of me being ill. But I could tell there was something going on. I couldn't recover. I had this feeling of anxiety. I had this feeling in my chest.

" ... I'm seeing doctors and being able to talk to them and doing the therapy part has been the biggest thing. I really hadn’t acknowledged how important it was to express the things that I had been dealing with on the inside. I hate to sound to like a real dramatic person. These were serious things that I was dealing with. To have someone to talk to was really important. To be able to talk to the team was really important. That’s probably been the most important thing."
Votto stressed that he had great support from the Reds, notably manager Dusty Baker and GM Walt Jocketty. One should not idly speculate how the situation would have been handled in a certain ice-based pro sport which normally dominates sports headlines in Southern Ontario.

Meantime, one has to laugh like hell that some people broke out the Jump To Conclusions mat when the Reds were keeping a lid on why Votto, their first baseman, had gone on the DL.

Of course, that would come to light when it's PRIDE Week in Toronto. D'oh!

Related:
Father's death affected Votto; Depression led to panic attacks and disabled list (John Fay, Cincinnati Enquirer)
Votto: 'I thought I was going to die' (Jeremy Sandler, National Post)
Player stressed, so fans conclude he must be gay (Jim Buzinski, Outsports.com; via Jeff Pearlman)

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Zen Dayley: Ex-Lynx catches on with Bucs

It's great how someone else's good news can cause you to perk up: Case in point, Jason Jaramillo, the last starting catcher for the Ottawa Lynx, had a happy homecoming last night with the Pittsburgh Pirates.
" 'This is an amazing dream come true,' said the 26-year-old Jaramillo, a Franksville native who becomes the first position player from Racine County to start for a major league team since Case graduate Duane Kuiper started 18 games at second base for the 1984 San Francisco Giants. 'All the blood, sweat and tears, I guess they say, about battling and working hard to achieve your dream is coming true.' "
Jaramillo, 26, is starting for the Pirates and his manager for the Lynx, John Russell, and doing a bang-up job in Ryan Doumit's absence. The job is his to lose until Doumit's projected return around the all-star break and the Pirates are 11-8, with a NL-best 3.36 ERA under Russell and former Expos pitching coach Joe Kerrigan.

Jaramillo is mostly backup-catcher timbre, the catch-and-throw guy who can hold on to a major-league job just for a receiving skills and occasionally. It's mostly beside the point whether he and the Pirates can sustain such a start. It's just nice, for lack of a more original word, to see him get a chance to play every day. He represented the late and lamented Lynx in the Triple-A All-Star Game in 2007. The offensive numbers (he had the exact same on-base-plus-slugging, .711, in both '07 and '08) were depressed somewhat by pitchers' parks in both Ottawa and Allentown, Pa., so the change of scenery helped. It's a pleasant surprise, to say the least.
"And from a defensive standpoint — and defense is Jaramillo's forte — he has yet to commit an error and has thrown out two baserunners, one of which was a SportsCenter highlight.

"So delighted is Pirates manager John Russell, who managed Jaramillo with the Class AAA Ottawa Lynx in 2007, that he only could think of one complaint.

" 'The only knock I have on him is he's from Oklahoma State,” joked Russell, who was a catcher for arch-rival Oklahoma from 1979-82.

"Jaramillo has been no laughing matter. Wearing the No. 35 three-time All-Star catcher Manny Sanguillen wore for the Pirates from 1967-80, Jaramillo has filled a huge hole in Doumit's absence.

" 'I knew he was a good player when he was with the Phillies,' Russell said. 'He was a top prospect and they kind of rushed him through the system a little bit. But he struck me as a very good defensive catcher and he really became a student of the game with switch-hitting. He showed flashes of potential with his batting, as well, so he has a lot of tools.

" 'He made the team because of his defensive abilities, but some of his offensive skills are starting to show up.' "
(Link via Rattler Radio, which has regular updates on B.C. baseball phenom Brett Lawrie, who's playing for a Milwaukee Brewers' Single-A team.

Related:
Jaramillo reaches MLB's top floor (Peter Jackel, Racine Journal-Times)

Sunday, April 12, 2009

Lawrie goes long ...

Canadian Brett Lawrie got his first professional hit, a home run, on Friday night in a Midwestern League game. Here's the radio call.

The Milwaukee Brewers prospect is with the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers, the same team that Hull native Phillippe Aumont made his full season debut with in 2008. Rattler Radio should have regular Lawrie updates so long as he's there (presuming the Brewers have him there all season and don't bump him up to Brevard County in the tougher Florida State League some time this summer).

Monday, April 06, 2009

Batter up: Chicago Cubs

It's that mystical, wonderful time of year where you commit to a team who you know fully well won't win. In honour of an popular Internet meme, we'll present 25 things tangentially about each Major League Baseball team. At bat: The Chicago Cubs.
  1. Baseball Prospectus 2009's leaderboards see Rich Harden of Victoria, B.C., leading the majors in ERA (3.04), WHIP (1.12) and strikeouts (235).

  2. Canadian insult: Ryan Dempster can go do his impression of Will Ferrell doin' an impression of Harry Caray out in the middle of a mosquito-infested lake, eh.

    Dempster and his spouse, Jennifer, were expecting a baby (a girl who was born last Thursday), so it's understandable that he demurred from playing for Team Canada at the WBC (although someone should have told the guy in Montreal who wrote, "Dempster must think those millionaire hockey players in the NHL who always seem to jump at the opportunity to represent Canada are crazy." There's still one living Montreal Maroon.)

    Dempster also just put up Triple Crown stats of 17-6 and a 2.96 ERA with 187 strikeouts, a once-a-career season, so one can understand why he wouldn't want change his routine. Granted, liking sports is not about being rational.

  3. Sometimes it is this simple: The Cubbies led the National League in on-base (.354) and slugging percentage (.443) last year before adding Milton Bradley's big bat.

  4. Their outlook summed up in one line from an Apatow movie: "Try some wrong, dog." It's a good group of complementary players, with catcher Geovany Soto as the one legit star at the eight everyday spots.

  5. It's tempting to think ace Carlos Zambrano spoke for more than a few players when he wished the Cubs would get a new stadium. The place is 95 years old, for pete's sake.

  6. The Cubs don't have a ton of depth in their farm system, raising the question of what they would give the Padres for Jake Peavy.

  7. Harden has a rep as damaged goods. The Beep notes that Cubs manager Lou Piniella has a track record with brilliant-but-brittle pitchers. Jose Rijo had his three best seasons with Piniella in Cincinnati from 1990-92, averaging 204 innings a season with a 2.59 ERA and 1.107 WHIP.

  8. Carlos Marmol has been the closer-elect for a while. Kevin Gregg, who saved 29 games for Florida last season, has been installed as closer.

  9. You'll grow sick of hearing that leftfielder Alfonso Soriano went 3-for-28 in the playoffs the past two seasons. The sample sizes in the post-season are too small to really form firm conclusions.

  10. Milton Bradley, who's 31, wasn't born the last time a Cubs had a 30-homer season from a left-handed hitter. That streak likely continues unless you believe Kosuke Fukudome has some latent home-run tendencies.

    Bradley is more dangerous from the right side, but going with Fukudome in right field again is the equivalent of bringing Zambuca to a party. Fukudome's passable in centrefield if there's no one better.

  11. Neal Cotts is the only left-hander in the bullpen. Marmol is pretty tough on all hitters, though.

  12. Neither second baseman Mike Fontenot nor shortstop Ryan Theriot is up to playing every day, but they can be on the Bobby Hebert All-Stars every day (that's American athletes with French-sounding names; they won a College World Series title together at Louisiana State).

  13. Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez make for a decent set of corner infielders. It's still hard to believe Lee once had 99 extra-base hits in a season.

  14. Minor League Ball says the Cubs have "no one with impact hitting potential at the higher levels" of the minor leagues. There goes another destination for Roy Halladay.

  15. Theodore Lilly is a good glue guy as the fourth starter, 200 innings a season, ERA in the high 3s or low 4s. Sweet liquor eases the pain of the year when he was the lone Jay selected for the all-star game, even if he and I share a birthday.

  16. Former Jay Reed Johnson, according to a panel of Jays Talk callers, has been voted the greatest baseball player of all time. He wasn't a league-average hitter last season. He didn't have a 50% success rate as a base stealer (5-for-11) and he only hit six home runs all season while playing at Wrigley Field, but he's a white guy who always looks like he's trying really hard.

    We dare not think of the bitterness that will happen if the Cubbies make the World Series.

  17. True to form, the Chicago writers are already up in arms over Fukudome starting in centrefield over Johnson: "Forget the idea of a platoon unless Johnson shows one is necessary."Johnson has a career on-base-plus-slugging of .712 vs. right-handers. What more does he have to do to show it's necessary?

  18. The Cubs are 163-128 (.560) since June 1, 2007. Keep in mind that includes the oh-fer in the playoffs.

  19. It's fake baseball, so it shouldn't really be annoying, but National League teams shouldn't get use a DH whenever they pretty much feel like it during spring training games. They get to have it both ways: More swings for their players before the season starts, less swings for the AL teams' guys once the season starts. Screw them.

  20. Kris Pollina was the only one out of Baseball Daily Digest's 11 prognosticators who doesn't have the Cubbies making their third straight playoff appearance (which would be unprecedented for a Chicago baseball team).

  21. Good trivia question for the year 2025: Utilityman Aaron Miles got the first hit in the new Yankee Stadium.

  22. Right-hander Jeff Samardzija gave up football to focus on baseball, but as long as he's in same city as the NFL's Bears, he's the best wide receiver in town. (Yes, Samardzija is in Triple-A.)


    (This what happens when you cheer for the Vikings and they don't get Jay Cutler. You have to compliment a Notre Dame guy to zing the Bears.)

  23. Great Bermanesque nickname suggestion, which best of all, did not come from Chris Berman: Bleed Cubbie Blue has come up with Starlin "Vocal Band" Castro.

    The Cubs do play the most afternoon games of any major-league team.

  24. Pedro Martínez's career 4.12 ERA at Wrigley Field is the worst for any part where he's pitched at least 50 innings. That might come up later this season — or not.

  25. One reason not to replace Wrigley that no one thought of: There is the risk future generations might not get the part in The Blues Brothers when Dan Aykroyd's character listed his address as 1060 West Addison St.

Friday, April 03, 2009

Batter up: Pittsburgh Pirates

It's almost baseball season, that mystical, wonderful time of year where you commit to a team who you know fully well won't win. This season, in honour of an popular Internet meme, we'll present 25 things about each team, starting with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Any wagering or fantasy baseball advice is for recreational use only.
  1. You know the scene in the second Naked Gun movie where Frank Drebin goes to a dive bar to drown his sorrows and there are pictures of the Hindenburg disaster and Michael Dukasis on the walls? That's pretty much how one imagines the Pirates clubhouse.

    They will have Eric Hinske and the thoroughly decent Adam LaRoche supplying their left-handed power, so, uh, yeah, that ought to help them avoid a record 17th losing season in a row.

  2. MLB.com's Pirates beat writer is Jenifer Langosh. She has one N and about 100 Ls to cover this season.

  3. Betting on baseball is only worthwhile if you can make the Obscure Bets window like picking Craig Monroe to be the Pirates' all-star representative. He hit 28 homers for the Detroit Tigers three years ago; he's a heartbeat away from getting hot for half a season before crashing down to earth.

  4. It's been Deadspinned, but yes, the Pirates lost to a junior college team on Thursday, 6-4 to the Manatee Community College Lancers. Manatee no-hit them over the final four innings, which just goes to show baseball is the greatest game of all.

  5. This comes during a spring when outfield prospect Jose Tabata's spouse charged with baby-napping. With the Pirates, it never rains, but it pours.

  6. Everyone's looking for the next Rays, and FanGraphs was somewhat complimentary to the Pirates owner Robert Nutting and GM Neal Huntington, who used to be in Cleveland, a successful mid-market team. They're the team. The players are just equipment. At the same time, there's a lot of reno work before the Pirates can contend in 2012 or '13.

    The Pirates' Double-A team will have about a third of its games broadcast on Pittsburgh radio. It's in line with selling hope.

  7. Their year-by-year win totals since 2005 have been 67, 67, 68 and 67. It's no surprise that the boys in Vegas have the over/under at 67½ . The Beep has them pegged for 64.

  8. What passes for the audacity of hope comes in the form of third baseman Pedro Alvarez, who has "scary" power according to Peter Gammons' many informed sources.

  9. Their last three managers also skipped the late and lamented Ottawa Lynx. Second-year man John Russell replaced Jim Tracy (2006-07), while Pete Mackanin managed the final 26 games of the 2005 season.

  10. Jason Jaramillo made the Pirates as a backup catcher. He had the best at-bat music of any the 2007 Ottawa Lynx, but it was easier to remember since he was actually there all season.

  11. A Google News search for "Pittsburgh Pirates" turns up a scathing review of Major League Baseball 2K9 video franchise. Get MLB 09: The Show instead, if you're into that sort of thing.

  12. Jose Tabata actually got the image of his idol, the sainted Roberto Clemente, tattooed on his chest before he was traded to the Pirates last season.

  13. No word of a lie: Pittsburgh TV station WTAE's website has links for news about NFL's Steelers and the NHL's Penguins, but none for the baseball team.

  14. There are actual things written about an actual baseball team: "Ross Ohlendorf won the No. 4 spot after a solid spring, though he has not yet had success at the big league level." In other words, he is perfectly qualified.

  15. Ohlendorf and No. 5 starter Jeff Karstens used to play in Scranton, which is good jumping-off point for noting that The Office really went downhill this season.

  16. Nate McLouth, rest assured, will probably be the centrefielder on the all-time Random Gold Glovers team. He's not long for the position, since the Pirates' closest to major-league prospect, 22-year-old Andrew McCutchen, plays centre.

  17. Keith Law believes the Pirates' previous regime rushed McCutchen through the minors.

  18. Gift Ngoepe is an easy name to keep on file; he has a legit shot at becoming the first black South African to play in the majors. Ngoepe had a rare two-triple game against Mexico during the World Baseball Classic; he's a switch-hitting shortstop with some wheels.

  19. The franchise has not lost a World Series since 1927. Let's see the Red Sox or Yankees make that claim.

  20. What's the ripple of evil if it doesn't turn around in the 'Burgh? Well, Hollywood is running out of the popular 1960s and '70s movies and TV shows that can be turned into remakes. The Pirates better start winning before there's a bastardized Major League remake set at PNC Park, with the fat kid from Two And A Half Men playing Ricky Vaughn Jr.

    Or not. This last paragraph was just a send-up of early Bill Simmons.

  21. Clemente's old number probably should be retired throughout all baseball, just like Jackie Robinson's No. 42. He meant that much to Latinos.

  22. The Pittsburgh preview is good a time as any to mention that it's odd how Bert Blyleven, who was on the '79 Pirates, doesn't have the same reputation as a post-season performer as, say, Jack Morris.

    Blyleven was 5-1 with a 2.47 ERA and 1.077 WHIP in the playoffs, compared to Morris (7-4, 3.80, 1.245).

    Someone who isn't old enough to remember (guilty as charged) might not even have heard about Blyleven throwing four shutout innings on two days' rest to keep the Pirates alive in the '79 Series. He started Game 2, then came on in relief in Game 5 with the Baltimore Orioles ahead 1-0 after five. He shut the door, the Pirates won 7-1 and went on to take Games 6 and 7 to win the whole megillah.

    Blyleven also beat Morris in their one head-to-head showdown in the 1987 American League playoffs, but speaking as a Blue Jays fan, any memory of that's season playoffs has been totally suppressed.

  23. Pittsburgh-based author Michael Chabon will totally sue anyone who prints up posters proclaiming Eric Hinske, Andy LaRoche and Craig Monroe as the "Wonder Boys." The situation will probably not crop up this season.

  24. There have been low points before. The Pirates at one point in the 1950s lost 317 games in three seasons. It would have been more, but the schedule was only 154 games then.

  25. Outfielder Nyjer Morgan's Baseball Prospectus 2009 entry says, "To his credit, he is beginning to understand his limitations." The Blue Jays should be doing everything in their power to trade for fourth outfielder who is actually a former hockey player, since that's supposedly what it takes to win ballgames.