Showing posts with label NL East. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NL East. Show all posts

Monday, May 31, 2010

The ironies of Roy Halladay's perfect game

Go figure: Roy Halladay threw a perfect game without being a Toronto Blue Jay, or even being Roy Halladay.

A pleasant irony for a Jays fan is that Doc was not totally in vintage form when he retired all 27 Florida Marlins hitters for the Philadelphia Phillies last Saturday. An irony for Canadian ball fans is that Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria, the guy who killed baseball in Montreal, is actually selling thousands and thousands of unused tickets as keepsakes. Hey, there's profit to be had.

Halladay threw more pitches, 115, than he did in 38 of the 43 nine-inning (or more) complete games that he turned in for the Jays from 2002 through '09. For a Canadian point of reference, Dennis Martinez hurled 96 pitches when he was El Presidente, El Perfecto for the late and lamented Expos at Dodger Stadium on July 28, 1991.

So, Down Goes Brown was not woofing when it Tweeted, "Roy Halladay pitches a perfect game; or, as Jays fans call it, the fourth or fifth best game we've ever seen him pitch." That would make us Jays fans, to play off another Philly sports figure with a medical-profession moniker, the 2010 answer to hoops nuts who claim people only saw the real Julius Erving in the American Basketball Association instead of in the NBA with the 76ers, where he's more remembered.

Doc's perfecto has prompted the inevitable retrospectives on Hall of Famer and U.S. Senator Jim Bunning's perfect game for the Phillies in 1964. (Bunning needed just 90 pitches in that one.) Each did it in his first year with the club after coming over from an American League team. Each was credited with his seventh win of the season. Bunning is one of Halladay's comparables.

Beyond that, it's noteworthy that a few years back, it seemed like Halladay slotted into the Bunning family of pitchers who as Bill James wrote, "are the whole package ... (but) do lose sometimes because they throw strikes, and if you put the ball over the plate sometimes the batter is going to hit it." In 2006, it seemed like -- and perhaps this was giving in to pessimism -- that might work against Halladay's chances of twirling a no-hitter.

More balls in play meant more chances for someone to get a flare, a gork, a ground ball with eyes, one more dying quail. It was less apparent that at that time, Halladay was posting the lowest strikeout rate of his career in '06 (132 in 220 innings, an even 5.4 per nine). He had been sidelined the previous season by a broken leg, which perhaps affected his stamina and forced him to economize and try to go for those more democratic ground ball outs.

On Saturday, of course, Doc had 11 strikeouts. He was on top of the Marlins hitters. FanGraphs noted he did not allow a single line drive and had the highest single-game Win Probability Added in almost five years.
Because of the tight score, Halladay accrued a fantastic +.888 WPA. That mark is the highest for any pitcher since June 26th, 2005, when A.J Burnett and the Florida Marlins defeated the Tampa Bay Devil Rays 1-0.
All of that has to be tempered by noting a wide strike zone helped Halladay wriggle out of a few 3-1 and 3-2 counts.

Halladay's feat, as it did for Bunning, should add to his "recognizability quotient." That's awesome in the long run. It was always evident Doc had the goods to throw a no-hit, no-run game, as much as it's a logical impossibility to predict.

Point being, though, as a Jays fan, seeing that his pitch count hit an unsightly, un-Doc-like 115, is cause to smile. It shows which city and country is home to the gallery that best reflects his art.

Sunday, May 09, 2010

Totally projecting: Roy's record reaffirming realignment

It turns out there are a couple convenient lame justifications for diving into MLB realignment, even if it's making this blog more single-issue than a fringy mayoral candidate.

The one spur is Roy Halladay, as you know, has been credited with six wins in seven starts with the Philadelphia Phillies, with an ill FIP (two home runs allowed and a 48-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 56 innings). It seems like Doc, with another 27 or so starts ahead on his 2010 docket, could be on his way to the 25-win season some in Canada predicted when he went from an American League also-ran to a National League power. Some people might not even be sated with 25. Couldn't he win 28, matching what the recently passed Hall of Famer Robin Roberts did for the Phillies in 1952?

(Another way to pose the question is to ask how few losses Halladay will have at season's end. It's the same query yet it avoids parroting the media overemphasis on a pitcher's win total. Bonus!)

The perceived gulf between the AL and NL is obviously a big part of why people are predicting Halladay could hit a statistical mark only one NL pitcher, since divisional play was created in 1969, has reached while working in a five-man rotation. And Tom Seaver did it in 1969, no less.

That segues right into the second spur, the Wall Street Journal piece that pointed out, for the million and sixth time, how MLB's current alignment has screwed over Halladay's old team. It would not do to accuse Canadian ball fans of having ulterior motives, but perhaps we want Halladay to finish a record such as 24-2 or 28-1 since it would help prove the NL is really, really bad. As the Journal put it:
" ... The American League is clearly the stronger of the two, based on interleague records and the differences in performance of players who jump from one league to the other. Since interleague play began in 1997, AL teams have won eight of 13 World Series and 12 All-Star Games (there was a tie in 2002). They have compiled a .566 winning percentage against NL clubs over the past five years. Now that (MLB commmissioner Bud) Selig has blurred the line between the two leagues — he's abolished their separate league offices and umpiring crews — the time may be ripe to go all the way.

" ... if the leagues were united in one 30-team league, and each team had to play all the others a similar number of games, no more than two National League franchises would have even qualified for the postseason in the past five years.

"In 2008, the Toronto Blue Jays finished well out of the playoffs and in fourth place in the brutal AL East, which includes the powerful Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees. But in an adjusted schedule where all teams played one another, Toronto's actual .531 winning percentage that year would have been .564, with the improvement coming from playing the National League teams more often.

"That would have put Toronto in seventh place in the 30-team league, good enough to make the playoffs. That year's World Champions, the Philadelphia Phillies, would have finished in ninth place, out of the playoffs.

"The 2006 Blue Jays, Chicago White Sox and Los Angeles Angels suffered a similar fate, missing the playoffs despite weighted winning performances that placed them ahead of three National League playoff teams — the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres and (World Series champion) St. Louis Cardinals." (emphasis mine)
The Journal's argument was for one 30-team league. That ain't happenin'. (The very notion has been well-parried by Jason Rosenberg at It's About The Money.)

It's for the best to ignore any blue sky realignment scenario such as a promotion-relegation system. The chance of that being installed in a North American league is remote for the same reason the National Football League won't adopt college rules for overtime and pass interference. Ego and simple chauvinism will not permit acknowledging someone else might have a better idea.

Major League Baseball is also married to having the AL and NL and calling its final the World Series. And there is no such thing as "pretty married." Maybe they do it that way over in Europe where they call soccer "football" (them and everyone except Canada, Australia and the U.S.) and teams get promoted and related at the end of the season. We don't know. Frankly, we don't want to know.

A personal theory, though, is MLB is due to make some change to zazz up its product. All this talk about realignment might really be over the shelf life of the current format.

Baseball is coming up on 20 years since it went to a six-division format in 1994. It had four divisions and a balanced schedule (those were the days) for 25 seasons, from 1969-93.

Look at the other leagues:
  • The NHL was split into two conferences and four divisions for 25 seasons (1974-75 through '98-99).

  • The NBA adopted two-and-four format a bit earlier and maintained a little later (34 seasons, '70-71 through '03-04).

  • The NFL had six divisions for 32 seasons (1970-2001), before it went to eight in 2002 after expansion to 32 teams.
So, tongue firmly in cheek, there is more to realignment talk than the attendant issues of addressing competitive balance, revenue disparities and AL East widows having a hard shell of cynicism that all the Blue Jays' ninth-inning comebacks against AL Central teams can't crack.

They should remedy the fact that a Blue Jays fan can only be anhedonic about the team being 19-14, since it has yet to face the Yankees and is 10-4 against the AL Central. Granted, it's impossible not to enjoy Fred Lewis' ninth-inning three-run homer that decided today's game against the Chicago White Sox. There's an off-chance it forced Joe Cowley to madly revise his game story at the last minute, after all.

Beyond that, Major League Baseball is bored. The other two major leagues and the NHL have had the fun of fighting off competitor leagues, ill-advised expansion and franchises hopping from one city to another and possibly back.

They must feel left out. Using 1970 as a baseline, since that was the year Bud Selig bogarted Seattle's team and made it the Milwaukee Brewers, MLB has 22 teams which have continuously played in the same city for the past 40 years. That compares pretty well to the NFL (17), NHL (12) and NBA (11).

Those pro sports operators are like the rest of us. They like to switch it up every so often.

MLB is pretty locked into its traditional league lines, but keep in mind those are more happenstance, accidents of history. Baltimore, Boston, Cleveland and Detroit had National League teams once upon a time. Milwaukee, Philadelphia, St. Louis and Washington were in the American League. Baseball would look much different on the west coast if the Pacific Coast League had succeeded in establishing itself as a major league in the 1950s. Vancouver could have had the first team in Canada. There was also the Continental League threat in the early '60s.

Toronto was almost a National League city. The San Francisco Giants were thisclose to moving there before the Blue Jays franchise was granted.

Point being, it's all very elastic if you take a long enough view, and there's enough reason to believe the situation might change for the Jays sooner rather than later. It seemed best to mention this with the club holding a 19-14 record (built mostly on a 10-4 mark vs. the AL Central) with 51 games yet to come against the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays.

Someday, MLB will have some alignment and scheduling that will prompt one to look at a team's actual record without first checking how it breaks down by division. Ooh, look, the team which leads the AL Central has also played 21 of its first 32 games within the AL Central. Gotta be a coincidence.

Meantime, Halladay's record for the Phillies might be the story of the summer for a Jays fan, even if the team manages to play .500 baseball. (Tip for Rob Neyer's Jays essay in his "eras" project: 2005-10 is the Roy Halladay era.)

A baseball fan of a certain vintage, with the exception of Pedro Martínez' 23-4 season in 1999, only knows gaudy won-loss records through old baseball cards. It's been exactly two decades since the last 25-win season and that by Bob freakin' Welch, who was the third-best pitcher on his own team.

One has to go back a few more years to the last time a pitcher earned 24 wins while being charged with less than five losses (Dwight Gooden in 1985 and Roger Clemens in '86 each managed 24-4 marks. Ron Guidry was 25-3 in 1978). No pitcher in the modern era has had 20 wins with two or fewer losses, although Greg Maddux was 19-2 in a strike-shortened 144-game schedule in 1995.

Small wonder it seems like every Seamhead of my acquaintance is riveted by whether Halladay could end up in that aforementioned Tom Seaver territory. Part of that is baseball being an exercise in statistic memorization by nature. Part of that is pride of having appreciated Halladay before he went to a big-market team and last but not least, being reminded it won't always be this way for the Jays. There is yet hope.

Sunday, April 04, 2010

Jusssst a bit outside: the Philadelphia Phillies

Duty calls to preview the MLB season, providing up to 30 things somewhat about each of the 30 teams, even the sucky ones. At bat: the Philadelphia Phillies.
  1. Philibustering: The question is really what would keep the Roy Halladay-reinforced Phils from being the first team to win three consecutive NL pennants since 1942-44 Cardinals, who did it when the high-end talent of the day was fighting in World War II.

  2. What can stop Halladay? Nothing, apparently. Every projection forecasts a big season for him. The last seven AL Cy Young winners to switch leagues combined for a 2.91 ERA after going to the National.

  3. On borrowed time (not really): They have had a great run of good fortune with player health, plus their bullpen and bench strength are dodgy. They punted on getting power from at least one infield corner by placing Placido Polanco at third base (Chase Utley hits a like a third baseman anyways). And so on.

    That's pretty thin gruel if you're arguing why they won't be back in the Series. That said, three regular pitchers are already on the disabled list, which feeds the fear-mongering even if one of them is Brad Lidge.

  4. Over-under: 92½ wins.

  5. Take the ... Over, just to be on the sunny side of the majority.

  6. All your bills come due: They already have $113 million committed to 17 players for next season (Bill Baer, The Hardball Times), so the party could be coming to an end.

  7. Howard's end: First baseman Ryan Howard puts up ill-ish home run and RBI totals every season, although there's some argument the Phillies should sell high on him.

  8. Bounce-back candidate: Shortstop Jimmy Rollins' sub-.300 on-base percentage last season raised the question of whether he was simply hit-unlucky (.251 batting average on balls in play). His line-drive rate was about the same as it was in his 2007 MVP season.

  9. The secret: The Phillies are smart-aggressive at running the bases, which helps optimize their production.

  10. Captain Obvious point: Much depends on whether No. 2 starter Cole Hamels recovers his 2008 form, meaning five out of seven starts in a post-season series will be accounted for. People get too hung up on the third, fourth and fifth starter slots, since 80% of teams just tread water with those roles.

  11. Revving up the revisionism (in case of Phail): Are people forgetting they only won the division by a game in both 2007 and '08, or that those two five-game series wins over the L.A. Dodgers both involved a Game 4 comeback against Jonathan Broxton?

  12. No one would believe it, but: Since 2005, The Beep has lefty-swinging second baseman Chase Utley as the second-best player in the game after that Pujols fellow on St. Louis.

  13. For what it's Werth: Rightfielder Jayson Werth, who hit .268/.373/.506 last season with 36 home runs, will get his chance to hit higher in the lineup once he goes free agent.

  14. CanCon: The Cliff Lee trade netted both centrefielder Tyson Gillies (a B.C. native to ballyhoo) and budding closer Phillippe Aumont (a Hull, Que., product to hyperbolize).

    Don't get too caught up in the numbers with Gillies, since he's going from the California League (everyone hits there) to the stingy Double-A Eastern League. He'll earn his keep as a defensive centrefielder.

  15. Seriously: Does Utley get visitation rights with Howard's and Rollins' MVP plaques?

  16. Fair or foul: Is joking, "Bet he wishes he was on steroids now" allowed if veteran leftfielder Raúl Ibáñez's tanks this season?

  17. Major downer: Former Phillies outfielder Doug Glanville has proven incisive and insightful as an op-ed columnist for The New York Times, so cross your fingers that he won't get dumbed-down by ESPN.

  18. Get ready to hear this 1,000 times come October: Howard struck out 13 times in 23 plate appearances in the '09 World Series.

  19. Who says there are no good nicknames: Between Whole Camels and the Flyin' Hawaiian (Shane Victorino in centrefield), the Phillies put the lie to that crusty sportswriting trope.

  20. Mike Schmidt's number!

  21. Keep an eye on: How well Canadian reliever Scott Mathieson (two years out from Tommy John surgery) progresses this season in the farm system.

  22. No sense of history: Jamie Moyer, the 47-year-old lefty, beat the Phillies and Hall of Famer Steve Carlton in his major-league debut 24 seasons ago. It would have been more theatrical if that had been Carlton's last start for the Phils, but he had to make one more before getting released.

  23. Pre-emptive anger: You already know that when Halladay comes to Toronto with the Phillies in June, someone at Rogers Centre will wonder aloud why he's wearing No. 34 instead of the 32 he wore with the Jays. And you will try not to link such ignorance to why Doc left.

  24. Blogospheric whipping boy: That would be righty Kyle Kendrick.

  25. Fun bet: Who has more strikeouts at the end of the season, Halladay or Howard.

  26. Ladies and gentlemen, Mr. Conway Twitty: The legendary country singer was scouted by the Phillies in the 1950s.

  27. PECOTA says: 90-72, first NL East, 774 runs scored, 682 against.

  28. In English, please: It's enough to make you cheer for Atlanta.

  29. Why 29? In honour of former first baseman John Kruk, who took those digits after giving up No. 28 at the behest of Mitch Williams, whose significant other had a bunch of No. 28 jewelry. Williams' relationship fell apart and as Joe Carter could tell you, his mechanics did not long after.




Type rest of the post here

Sunday, March 28, 2010

Jusssst a bit outside: the New York Mets preview

Duty calls to preview the MLB season with 30 things somewhat about each of the 30 teams. At bat: the New York Mets.
  1. Kicking them while they're down: The Mets play in the world's media capital and its its former financial capital. That built-in economic advantage has given them is a lousy four World Series appearances in almost 50 seasons.

    The perpetually cash-poor Oakland Athletics have won six pennants in the same stretch.

  2. All part of the plan: Tom Seaver won two of his three Cy Young Awards on 82-win Mets teams in the 1970s. The idea must be to make the National League's best left-hander, Johan Santana, really earn it.

  3. Over-under on wins: 80½

  4. Take the ... Under, on general principle.

  5. Wright can't stay wrong: Every projection has third baseman David Wright finding his old form after a nightmarish 2009.

  6. In a sentence: The main question coming into the season is whether GM Omar Minaya or field manager Jerry Manuel gets fired first. It's that grim.

  7. Santana spelled with a K: The difference between Johan Santana being his old Cy Young self and a JAGOV (Just Another Guy of Value) is his strikeout rate, which has been 7.9 the past two seasons after six years in a row of 9-plus.

  8. One cool part about the Mets: Left-hander Hisanori Takahaski throws six pitches since he came over from Japan, where having only 12 major-league teams means pitchers need a deeper catalog. Just to spoil it for us, the Mets likely will make him a reliever, so he won't be able to run through his full repertoire in one- or two-inning relief stints. Why can't mediocre teams just make moves in the interest of obsessive fans?

  9. Worth repeating without commentary: From The New York Times last week: "Minaya said the Mets should slug better this season after signing Jason Bay. He also said Bay would help the defense in left field, and Daniel Murphy would improve at first base." It's long been known the key to winning is always fielding and that two spots on the low end of the defensive spectrum.

  10. You can freak out a Mets fan just saying "injuries": Their run production will rise on fall of how quick leadoff man José Reyes and centrefielder Carlos Beltrán, whose awesomeness is masking by park factors, make it back into the lineup.

  11. Kept at Bay: Citi Field surrendered the fifth-fewest homers in the majors, which raises the question why Jason Bay (pictured) and his bad knees signed up for 81 games a season there in a league with no DH.

  12. Isn't that the definition of irony: GM Omar Minaya's big off-season move was to sign Bay, who he traded away several years ago when he mortgaging the Expos/Nationals' future to make himself look good for a new job.

  13. This was Lee Mazzilli's number. And Dave Magadan's.

  14. The next ones: Credit where credit is due, outfielder Fernando Martinez, shortstop Wilmer Flores, first baseman Ike Davis and righty starter Jenrry Mejia are in the pipeline for a franchise which isn't exactly famous for homegrown talent. Some want Mejia in the majors now since hey, the 20-year-old's career well-being pales next to fans' impulsiveness.

    Why should the Mets worry about the future when theirs is so murky and uncertain?

  15. Kid, because you love: You would think the Mets would get a sympathetic treatment, on account of their owner getting ripped off by Bernie Madoff and, on a bajillion-times-smaller scale, this site riffing on Gary Carter several times.

  16. When in doubt: Blame the Mets' decline on former assistant GM Tony Bernazard, the big brain who was behind developing a lineup of push hitters, which is basically what he was during a pretty ennnnh career.

  17. Better know a prospect: They wouldn't do something stupid and trade away one of their young hopes such as Mejia or Flores?

  18. That's why there's a paywall: Competing headlines on the same day from The Times and Newsday, which charges for content: Reyes Feels Ready to Play, but Mets Are in No Rush (Times) and Reyes' target is Opening Day, but Mets won't rush him (Newsday).

  19. This almost makes up for missing the playoffs on the last day of the season ... twice: The iconic home run apple has been moved to a more prominent position, outside of Citi Field.

  20. No Mets preview is complete without ... digging up Steve Rushin's poem about Mets third basemen:
    Sandy Alomar
    Made like Alydar
    And sired a couple of studs
    But he was more awful
    Than day-old falafel
    Before long the job was Joel Youngblood's.
  21. Auspicious debut: Never forget that the first batter in the first game at Citi Field, Jody Gerut, hit a home run. Bring that up every time you're lashing out at this franchise, just because.

  22. The Ex-Jay Factor: Frank Catalanotto earning a roster spot would make for a trio of ex-Torontonians, along with catcher Rod Barajas and injured pitcher Kelvim Escobar. Let's be totally axiomatic and say having three former Jays will prevent any serious run. It wouldn't have anything to do with having Fernando Tatis batting in the middle of the order.

  23. Amazingly true stat: Tatis actually played two games at shortstop last season, a position he hadn't played in the majors in 11 years.

  24. Fun bet: Pretty please with sugar on top, may Jeff Francoeur join the exclusive "more home runs than walks" club? He almost did it last year (10 homers, 11 bases on balls).

  25. The original Hot Tub Time Machine: Their 2009 home run totals -- hitting just 95, with Daniel Murphy leading the team with 12 -- were straight out of 1986.

    That's what happens when you deprive players of their pregame uppers. Thanks a lot, Bud Selig.

  26. Future Hall of Very Gooder: Erstwhile first baseman Carlos Delgado, 27 homers short of the once-magic 500, wasn't retained by the Mets. His biggest comp during his last three seasons with the Mets was another former Blue Jays first baseman, Fred McGriff, who also has a very long road to Cooperstown.

  27. A PhD thesis to be named later: Some pop culture nerd could write about American sitcom characters' baseball allegiances, positing that the best ones gravitate toward the Yankees and recoil from the Mets.

    Seinfeld was filled with Mets references in its critically acclaimed but less watched early seasons, but aligned itself with the 1990s Yankees as the series progressed. The episode where the gang gets kicked out of Yankee Stadium after Elaine refuses to take off her Orioles cap even predated the Keith Hernandez "second spitter" episode.

    How I Met Your Mother
    has worked in the Yankees at myriad times through the years, but the series' only Mets reference ever was a portent of doom. In the show's fourth season, it becomes clear Ted Mosby's latest relationship was doomed when it's pointed out, "Stella's a Mets fan."

    King of Queens and Everybody Loves Raymond professed a clear Mets rooting interest, but both of those shows sucked.

  28. Yep, they're radioactive: Keith Olbermann said once, "Revoke the Mets franchise before it achieves nuclear capability."

  29. PECOTA says: 78-84, fourth NL East, 743 runs scored, 781 against.

  30. In English, please: Paraphrasing Mexism No. 224, it's going to "HORRIBLY exciting."


Thursday, March 25, 2010

Jusssst a bit outside: the Washington Nationals preview

Duty calls to preview the MLB season, 30 things somewhat about each of the 30 teams, even the sucky ones. At bat: the Washington Nationals.
  1. How soon can he get here? Pitching phenom Stephen Strasburg is starting the season in Double-A ball, but everyone realizes it's to forestall his arbitration clock. The Nationals fanbase (it exists in theory) is basically ignoring the games to wait for updates on his minor-league starts.

  2. The same goes for ... Perhaps slugging prospect Bryce Harper's draft stock will fall just before the June first-year player draft. Since with Washington is drafting No. 1 overall after posting a 59-103 record, it's already easy enough to picture Harper crushing home runs in the U.S. capital.

  3. Over/under on wins: 70.5.

  4. Gut feeling says? Over.

  5. Zim City: Third baseman extraordinaire Ryan Zimmerman (.292-.364-.525 last season, 110 runs scored, won a Gold Glove) is among the best players most people have never heard of.

  6. Useless prediction: Chien-Ming Wang wins NL Comeback Player of the Year in 2011. He was credited with 19 wins one season with the Yankees, people! Ignore that his mechanics are not what they were and the infield defence behind him is sketchy.

  7. Are they really ever going to be profitable? Starting with its first season after relocation, the franchise has been eighth, 11th, 14th, 13th and 13th in attendance in a 16-team league.

  8. Five years is enough: There should be no more rage over what happened to the Montreal Expos. C'est la vie! Enjoy the Capitals losing in the second round, Washington.

  9. Young arms! More than half the Nats' innings (727 1/3 of 1,424 1/3) last season were hurled by pitchers age 25 or younger, including the de facto No. 1 starter, left-hander John Lannan, righty Jordan Zimmerman (who's returning from Tommy John surgery) and left-hander Ross Detwiler (who is supposed to be good).

    The infamously awful 2003 Detroit Tigers also had young pitchers throw more than half their innings, and made the World Series three years later. It is surely a coincidence.

  10. Movin' up in the world: They jumped two spots to 28th in FanGraphs' organizational rankings. Remember, there are only 30 teams.

  11. They're not completely useless: Major League Soccer bloggers use the Nats as their bad example.

  12. Their park plays neutral, but you would never know: Their 5.00 staff ERA was dead last in the league in 2009.

  13. Having his bat also means having his glove: The Nats were second in the NL in bases on balls, which seems odd for a 103-loss team. Then you recall it's the National League and Adam Dunn has to play a defensive position.

  14. Randomness in relief: After burning through 22 relief pitchers last season and having a 5-plus bullpen ERA, they're bound to be better in that area, almost by accident.

  15. Just dumb: Letting outfielder Elijah Dukes go for nothing was like "firing the dishwasher (before) the end of his shift," according to Capitol Punishment. Perhaps Dukes had to go, but there's no one to play right field, which is kind of a key offensive position.

  16. Only awkward if we let it be awkward: It's kind of fitting Pudge Rodriguez is continuing his career in Washington, since his growing obsolescence rivals the republic itself for which he squats (not stands; he's a catcher).

    Rodriguez, 38, might play long enough to collect the 289 hits he needs to become the first catcher in the 3,000-hit club (it might take him 3-4 teams). When/if it happens, do not dwell on how everyone expected his name to be in the Mitchell Report and then it wasn't, and how he just happened to play for a team run by the then-U.S. President.

  17. Future Hall of Very Gooder: It's way early in the game to predict this, but Zimmerman has comparables such as Ken Keltner, Harlond Clift, Ron Santo and Gary Sheffield, all awesome players who will probably never get in the Hall of Fame. A trade to a big-market team can't come soon enough, Zimm.

  18. Just saying: Nats320 notes 20 years before Strasburg, another D.C.-area team took a can't-miss right-hander No. 1 overall. He would be Ben McDonald, who was out of baseball by age 30, having posted an average 3.91 ERA with just 78 wins.

    Kidding aside, Strasburg will be the real deal.

  19. Cool century-old comparisons! Allen Abel pointed out that when the "great Walter Johnson was 21 years old" (same as Strasburg) "back in 1909, he won 13 games and lost 25 for a Washington team that lost 110."

    Our seamheadedness will not allow us to let Abel get away without pointing out the Big Train, 25 losses and all, actually had an above league-average ERA in aught-nine.

    Also, contrary to Abel's contention Washington "hasn't hosted a World Series -- it hasn't even come close -- since 1933," the 1945 Senators finished 1½ games behind the pennant-winning Tigers, which is pretty close to hosting a World Series.

    Granted, citing such evidence shows Gen Xers and millenials know nothing about history as it's selectively recalled by the entrenched older generation.

  20. Since Willie Harris is on Washington, it's a good time to ask: Is it acceptable to say "super-ute" as a short form of "super utility player?"

  21. Fun bet: Will Dunn outhomer the entire Nationals starting outfield, which might include Nyjer Morgan (.388 slugging last season) and Willie Harris (.393)?

  22. Question: What is the #BidenThroughoutHistory version of "they f---in' suck?" In that case, do you take the F-word out?

  23. Two words why Harper won't catch in the majors (if he signs with Washington): Derek Norris. He's a 21-year-old catching prospect who can hit.

  24. Is not fair: Leftfielder Josh Willingham will potentially reach free agency just when the market really bottoms out in two years -- also right before the players' and owners' collective agreement expires.

  25. Prospect porn: Closer Drew Storen and shortstop Danny Espinosa. Get to know these names.

  26. Hate by association: It's hard to like second baseman Adam Kennedy since he's automatically associated with his former double-play partner, David Eckstein, who was plenty easy to resent even before he cost the Jays' Aaron Hill his 2008 season.

  27. One of those tricks of memory: Right-hander Livan Hernandez, who eats innings and no longer looks like he'll eat about anything else after taking up racquetball, is only 35 years old. It feels like he should be at least 40. He earned a ring with the 1997 Marlins, who had a who's-who of early '90s household names such as Darren Daulton, Devon White, Bobby Bonilla and Jim Eisenreich.

  28. Radio daze: The Nats' top farm club, the Syracuse Chiefs has its games broadcast on SportsRadio 620, the very same station that Bath, Ontario's own Tyler King made his AHL play-by-play debut on two months ago.

    If they're smart down there, Tyler will get to make his professional baseball broadcasting there this summer ... and we'll ignore the irony of a Canadian working for the Chiefs, who used to be affiliated with one Canadian MLB team and are now paired with the Nationals, who used to be a Canadian MLB team.

  29. PECOTA says: 74-88, fifth NL East, 680 runs scored, 752 runs allowed.

  30. In English, please: Not as bad as they used to be.
(All over-unders on wins from 5Dimes.)

Thursday, October 15, 2009

MLB playoffs: California dreamin' of L.A.-L.A. Series?

The Bill James Playoff Predictor went 4-for-4 in the pre-dilly-ictable first round of Major League Baseball's second season, so why not try it again? You know the drill.
  1. 1 point to the lead team for each half-game in the standings
  2. 3 points to the team that scored more runs
  3. 14 points to the team with fewer doubles
  4. 12 points to the team with more triples
  5. 10 points to the team with more home runs
  6. 8 points to the team with the lower team batting average
  7. 8 points to the team that committed fewer errors
  8. 7 points to the team that turned more double plays
  9. 7 points to the team that walked more batters
  10. 19 points to the team that had more shutouts
  11. 15 points to the team whose ERA was lower
  12. 12 points to the team that has been in postseason most recently or went further.
  13. 12 points to the team which won the season series.
It's by no means definitive, especially in areas where one team's statistical advantage is small. Nevertheless ...

ALCS: ANGELS vs. YANKEES
  1. The Yankees were 103-59, the Angels were 97-65. (Yankees 12)
  2. The Yankees scored 915 runs, the Angels scored 883. (Yankees 3)
  3. The Angels hit 293 doubles, the Angels hit 325. (Angels 14)
  4. The Angels hit 33 triples, the Yankees hit 21. (Angels 12)
  5. The Yankees hit 244 home runs, the Angels hit 173. (Yankees 10)
  6. The Yankees batted .283, the Angels batted .285. (Yankees 8)
  7. The Angels made 85 errors, the Yankees had 86. (Angels 8)
  8. The Angels turned 174 double plays, the Yankees turned 131. (Angels 7)
  9. The Yankees walked 574 batters, the Angels walked 523. (Yankees 7)
  10. The Angels had 13 shutouts, the Yankees had 8. (Angels 19)
  11. The Yankees had a 4.28 ERA, the Angels' was 4.45 (Yankees 15)
  12. The Angels won the AL West in 2008 and lost in the division series. (Angels 12)
  13. The season series was split 5-5.

    TOTAL: Angels 72, Yankees 57
NLCS: Philadelphia Phillies vs. L.A. Dodgers
  1. The Dodgers went 95-67, the Phillies were 93-69. (Dodgers 4)
  2. The Phillies outscored the Dodgers 820-780. (Phillies 3)
  3. The Dodgers hit 278 doubles, the Phillies hit 312. (Dodgers 14)
  4. The Dodgers hit 39 triples, the Phillies 35. (Dodgers 12)
  5. The Phillies hit 224 home runs, the Dodgers 145. (Phillies 10)
  6. The Phillies batted .258, the Dodgers batted .270. (Phillies 8)
  7. The Phillies made 76 errors, the Dodgers made 83. (Phillies 8)
  8. The Dodgers turned 134 double plays, the Phillies 132. (Dodgers 7)
  9. The Dodgers walked 584 batters, the Phillies 489. (Dodgers 7)
  10. Both teams had nine regular-season shutouts, the Phillies had one in the first round (Phillies 19)
  11. The Dodgers' staff ERA was 3.41, the Phillies' was 4.16 (Dodgers 15)
  12. The Phillies won the World Series in 2008, the Dodgers lost in the NLCS. (Phillies 12)
  13. The Dodgers won the season series, 4-3. (Dodgers 12)

    TOTAL: Dodgers 71, Phillies 60

Sunday, July 26, 2009

Liveblogging for The Score

A little shameless self-promotion: Your humble agent will be liveblogging this afternoon's St. Louis Cardinals-Philadelphia Phillies game for The Score. It's a 1:35 p.m. first pitch, so we'll strike up the band around 1:20.

In other words, in Sageritaville you might hate the NL's antiquated rules, but you're OK with making a little scratch off their games. It's a matchup of two first-place teams, although the Cardinals could end up in second in NL Central by the time the day is done.

Todd Wellemeyer (7-8, 5.68, 1.73 WHIP) is throwing for the Cardinals vs. the Phillies' Joe Blanton (6-4, 4.24, 1.33). Philly fans fans have their eyes on two games this aft, since Pedro Martinez is pitching for the Clearwater Threshers – whose manager is Ernie Whitt – this afternoon in a minor league game.

Yes, Ernie Whitt and Matt Stairs are both in the Phillies organization. Apparently they really like stubby-legged balding guys who hit everything to right field.

Of course, the latest is that the Phillies rejected a Blue Jays trade proposal, meaning this won't be an opportunity to scout Roy Halladay's future teammates.

Sunday, July 19, 2009

DocWatch: If they took our Halladay, where to?

When something is out of your hands, you might as well mine it for humour.

At the very least, that's the intellectual justification for posting on Roy Halladay, whose next home start could come Friday vs. the Tampans at Rogers Centre (or not). He proved himself a friend of gamblers and Seamheads who will take baseball any way they can get it but can take only so much of Sportsnet's telecasts by needing only two hours, 15 minutes to six-hit the Boston Red Sox. With the Bostonians' propensity for arguing balls and strikes, you could say, "It was vintage Roy Halladay and the Red Sox brought the whine."

After the 3-1 win where he threw only 27 balls to 33 hitters, Halladay's WHIP is 1.07 and his strikeout-to-walk ratio is a sick 113-17. A 3:1 ratio is solid, 6:1 would fit right in on Ridiculous Day down at the deli. There's the damn trade talk, though, and Phillies prospect Michael Taylor does offer a ton of potential.
"The Phillies remain nearly everyone's favorite to land star Blue Jays pitcher Roy Halladay, and the teams are believed to have advanced to the point where they have discussed several of Philadelphia's top prospects — including outfielder Michael Taylor, shortstop Jason Donald and pitcher Carlos Carrasco — although, there's no evidence yet that the Phillies are relenting on top pitching prospect Kyle Drabek.

"If Philly agrees to surrender Drabek, one competing executive said, 'they might get (Halladay) real quick.' " — SI.com
Under the heading of "thanks, Captain Obvious," the optics of trading within the division — GM-cest — are so bad the possibility should not be considered. A Jays fan should figure out which team would be an acceptable destination, just as Nordberg's wife in the first Naked Gun movie was told not to wait too long to fill out those organ donor cards. It also helps if the reasoning, so-called, is completely random and as irrational as possible. It's also irrespective of what the Jays might get in return, since that is J.P. Ricciardi's concern.
  1. Milwaukee Brewers — It works on so many levels. The Jays were pwned by the Brewers long before the term was coined, the Brewers seem to have sucked up to Canada and Milwaukee is cool in an avocado-coloured furniture kind of way.

    You would never hear this in the Toronto media whose baseball memory only covers the years 1989-93, but two small-market Midwestern teams, the Brewers and Kansas City Royals, have hand on the Jays, in the Costanzian sense, and it can never be rectified. The Royals, of course, eliminated a two-game deficit in the 1985 playoffs and kept the Jays out of the World Series. Two years later, when the Jays and Tigers engaged in one of the great divisional races of the pre-wild card era, the Brewers played spoiler by sweeping a late-season series in Toronto. That is tough to avenge, since the Brewers were liberated from the American League (coincidentally, Bud Selig used to be their owner) and moved to the NL in 1998. The only way is if there's a Milwaukee-Toronto World Series.

    The Brewers also have a Canadian GM and assistant GM, Doug Melvin and Gord Ash, and B.C.-born bonus baby Brett Lawrie will be a fast-riser through their farm system. It's like they're cosying up to Canada.

    Last but not least, Milwaukee might seem like a hick town. Well, there are two kinds of hick towns, the ones which are dull and boring (ahem, where I do live again?) and those ones which are quirky. This is coming from a guy who's never lived there, but Milwaukee falls toward the latter. Brewers fans sing the obscure second verse of Beer Barrel Polka just to be different. It's assumed there's a bit or irony in Green Bay Packers football fans wearing those Cheeseheads (if there's a God in heaven, it better be ironic, because those people get to vote). Besides, anyone hard up for a liberal oasis can always drive over to the nearby state capital, Madison, where one learns not to even bat an eye at women picketing topless. Point being, Milwaukee is OK.

  2. L.A. Dodgers — Dodger Stadium's park factor is 94 for pitchers, which in the short run might help Halladay shave a few points off his earned-run average. That might help in some future Hall of Fame election. They also have the best chance of advancing to the World Series, an event that was played in Canada a couple times in the 1990s.

    The big caveat is that it would just be a question of when L.A. Times clown columnist Bill Plaschke would start using Halladay as a political football in his regularly scheduled anti-Manny Ramírez screeds. Doc is not a political prop or a rhetorical splitting wedge. It demeans him when columnists do that, something certain people in Toronto did not pay heed to the past three years when they were cracking on A.J. Burnett.

  3. Philadelphia Phillies — The most "logical landing spot" (John Heyman, SI.com) for Halladay is also the place where, fire up the old refrain, they booed Santa Claus/cheered when Michael Irvin broke his neck/boo when couples get engaged on the video screen. The greatest living baseball player, Michael Jack Schmidt (548 home runs and he never took a steroid or judging ballplayers or more recent vintage who did), also got booed once in a while.

    Point being, though, that's all cliché and stereotype. Perhaps the reason they boo in Philly because they care unconditionally. That's more than can be said for certain northeastern U.S. cities which, not naming names, barely noticed they had a NFL team before 2001.

    The Phillies have a decent shot at returning to the World Series. Pat Gillick works for them. Matt Stairs is there. What's not to like?

  4. St. Louis Cardinals — Good god, no. What comes to mind with St. Louis is a Deadspin user saying last week that while Busch Stadium is always a sea of Cardinal red, most of those fans are wearing "cheap $11 jersey T-shirts of some average white player."

  5. Chicago White Sox — Their owner, Jerry Reinsdorf, is the World Series-cancelling, NBA dynasty-dynamiting plutocrat whom Gary Bettman would rather have as a NHL owner than Jim Balsillie, who actually wants to spend money on a team. That takes care of that. The White Sox are the 10th-richest team in baseball, but act like they're a small-market underdog next to the cross-town Chicago Cubs.

  6. Detroit Tigers — Make your own joke about the Michigan economy, but don't be too cruel. Geographically speaking, Detroit is too close for comfort for a Jays fan, even if it's out of the division.

  7. Texas Rangers — Imagine trading a player to a team whose owner is hemorrhaging money. This is not a serious suggestion, but it's hard to get one's mind wrapped around the idea that the Rangers are even allowed to make such a trade in the wake of MLB giving them a bailout.
More teams will be added in accordance with whatever teams Ken Rosenthal swears are "flying under the radar."

Related:
As trade deadline nears, Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay on everyone's list (Bill Madden, N.Y. Daily News)

Saturday, May 30, 2009

Erik Bedard, hot commodity

It would be remiss to not make note of the first trade rumours of the season surrounding Erik Bedard, the Seattle Mariners pitcher from Navan, Ont., near Ottawa.
"Bedard, who is reasonably priced at $7.75 million, could enhance several rotations, including those of the Phillies, who could now lose Brett Myers for the year (which they have -- Ed.), plus the White Sox, Brewers and others.

"... Bedard, who is 3-2 with a 2.48 ERA and back to showing his immense talent after a rough initial year in Seattle, is the clear headliner."
FOXSports.com's ubiquitous Ken Rosenthal (when does that man sleep?) reported the defending World Series champion Phillies believe they have "only one move," which is to add a top-end starter.
The experts wonder if the low-key, small-town Bedard could hold up pitching in Philly, which seems like a legitimate question.

Meantime, Bedard is a top-end starter ... when he's on. He is, after all, a 30-year-old pitcher who has worked more than 190 innings only once. The numbers quoted above might have got a boost from his competition. His three wins this season are against Oakland and L.A., two of the poorer hitting teams in the American League.

He does have to be used carefully with regard to pitch counts (don't let him go past 100). However, when he had his best season with the Orioles in 2007, he was able to get a lot of ground balls, which is a prereq to pitch at the little bandbox ballpark in Philadelphia. The Phillies could do a lot worse for a trade-deadline addition.

As Peavy saga drags on, Bedard may become hot commodity (Sports Illustrated)

Monday, April 13, 2009

Zen Dayley: Harry and the Bird ...

Ball fans were still absorbing the news about Nick Adenhart — and now comes word about Mark Fidrych, of mid-1970s Detroit Tigers fame, and Harry Kalas, the longtime Philadelphia Phillies play-by-play voice, have left us on the same day.

The form calls, as a unreformed baseball nut, to try to do justice to both men.

Firstly, Fidrych. (Joe Posnanski, who had benefit of actually being alive in 1976, will have more later, so you can skip reading from this point forward and wait for his take). One way of summing up The Bird if that if he hadn't existed, Richard Linklater might have had to invent him for the generation which wishes it had been young in the free-spirited '70s, instead of the nervous 1990s, where just saying hello could get you charged with a hate crime.

The timing and tide was right for Fidrych, "with his Framptonian nest of hair." (Steve Rushin, Sports Illustrated, July 2, 2001). From this vantage point, he stands as the last folk-hero American athlete, who barely got paid more than the people sitting in the stands (the stage ledge in Michigan even passed a resolution to try to get his salary raised above the major-league minimum, $16,500). The state of Michigan, then as as now, was down on its luck on its 1976, the auto industry leaking oil three lanes wide. He provided some very necessary solace, so maybe it's not for nothing he would go when the city and state which embraced him so is up against it once again. It's a reminder that whatever comes up, we've been there before.

Meantime, as the story went, he was without airs to the extent that he lived in an apartment with no telephone. Perhaps there was some lesson in there, an argument that modesty is overrated.
"He was almost too down to earth. "He was just a wonderful guy to be around. I think the antics on the field were never an act. I think it was his true feelings. He was just a simple guy, lived a simple lifestyle and just brought that lunchpail mentality to the pitcher's mound every four or five days."
— Pawtucket Red Sox president Mike Tamburro, via The Associated Press
Fidrych was also kind of a poster child for the abuse of young arms. The double edge of his runaway success was that the Detroit Tigers allowed a pitcher just two years out of high school to throw 24 complete games — a career for some pitchers — in 29 starts, including five extra-inning games. Using Tom Tango's pitch count estimator, one can guesstimate that Fidrych had several games where he threw 150 to 175 pitches. For instance, in his fourth career start, he pitched an 11-inning, 5-4 win, with four bases on balls; he probably threw in the area of 176 pitches.

That would never happen today. These days, a smart organization would probably have shut Fidrych down in September once his team was out of the hunt (the '76 Tigers finished 74-87, fifth in a six-team AL East). Really, every time you hear some sports-talk radio reactionary going on about pitchers being babied, you should be entitled to find him and staple a printout of Mark Fidrych's career stats to his forehead.

Fidrych represented the innocence of youth. Well, innocence has a down side. Be that as it may, he'll always be the answer to a great question, what would you do if you were told you would be a major sports star for a year, but only for a year? By most accounts, he handled that question with his own goofy kind of aplomb.



Harry Kalas

Greater minds have already commented on the relationship which forms between a good baseball radio play-by-play voice and her/his audience, so spare a thought for Phillies fans today. They've lost two good ones in just more than a decade, since Kalas' analyst, the Hall of Fame leadoff hitter Richie Ashburn, died unexpectedly in 1997.

Kalas was known for his work with NFL Films, but he was Philadelphia's guy through and through.



Bill Baer of Crashburn Alley, a fine Phils blog, said it best about Kalas several weeks ago.
"I could listen to Kalas talk about anything — knitting, different types of leaves, flossing techniques — for hours on end. His voice and delivery are incredibly captivating, no doubt why he is a legend among legends in the broadcast booth. To boot, he is one of the most genuinely humble people you will ever have the privilege of hearing."
Harry Kalas, according to his Wiki, was actually a catalyst for a change in MLB broadcasting policy. In those days, the hometown radio broadcasters were always shunted aside for the national guys during the World Series. There was such a stink over Kalas being bounced off the broadcast in 1980 that starting the next year, the locals were able to call the game. That speaks to what Philly had with Harry Kalas and what Harry Kalas had in Philly.

R.I.P., Harry. R.I.P., Bird.

Related:
Kalas: 'His substance was his style' (Pro Football Talk)
Goodbye, Harry (Brian Joseph, Baseball Daily Digest)
In 1976 the Bird flew into baseball, free of guile, a little bit gullible and absolutely lovable. Twenty-five years later he's the same rare Bird. (Sports Illustrated, July 2, 2001)

Monday, April 06, 2009

Batter up: New York Mets

It's that mystical, wonderful time of year where you commit to a team who you know fully well won't win. This season, in honour of an popular Internet meme, we'll present 25 things tangentially about each Major League Baseball team. At bat: The Nye Mets.
  1. Carlos Delgado will hit his 500th career homer on Sept. 25 in Florida. That's not a guess. That's what's going to happen.

  2. Left-hander Johan Santana, in his second go-round in the league, seems like a decent pick to win the Cy Young Award. Pedro Martínez and Randy Johnson each won in their second season after changing leagues, so ...

  3. The estimable Allen Barra is positing that it's The Year of José Reyes. The leadoff man has been Tall Poppy Syndromed. Slow starts in 2006 and '08 didn't help hus cause. Reyes hit .356/.442/.596 in the first month of the '07 season and this is an odd-numbered season ...

  4. There's been good debate all winter whether Citi Field will be a death valley park, even more so than Shea Stadium, which had exceptionally poor visibility.

  5. Their starting pitching probably just has to be good enough. There are no big names, but right-hander Mike Pelfrey allowed only six home runs last season. Oliver Pérez is always going to be NYC tabloid fodder all season, but he was good over the final three months last season. John Maine is good except he's made of glass. Please keep in mind it's better for the old media if everyone just accepts the Mets have no starting pitching outside Santana.

  6. Santana is being played up as a clubhouse leader. Championships are won in the clubhouse (even Bill James says so — probably), so it's possible the Mets felt the older Santana and Pedro Martinez together would not work.

  7. David Wright, Delgado, centrefielder Carlos Beltrán and rightfielder Ryan Church are a decent meat of the order, at least for the National League.

  8. Random announcer babble: "Daniel Murphy sees a lot of pitches." Drink!

    The 24-year-old is pencilled in as the No. 2 hitter. The Mets had a cast of thousands in the 2-hole last season.

  9. Can Beltrán ever get any attention in MVP voting? No Met has ever won MVP.

  10. No Mets pitcher has ever thrown a no-hitter, either.

  11. You've heard it ad nauseam that the Phillies are attempting to become the first National League team to repeat as World Series champions since the '75-76 Reds. It might be hard to do it as second-place team behind the Metropolitans.

  12. Picking up Gary Sheffield (obvious joke: Will he hit his 500th before Delgado, who's only 30 behind him?) is no-fuss, no-muss, for the most part. What's the worst that can happen with signing a 40-year-old tainted by the Mitchell Report, who cannot be stashed at the DH spot?

    Sheffield could give the Mets 350 good plate appearances.

  13. A theory that can be ignored is that since David Wright had a big game-winning hit in Team USA's comeback win over Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic, he'll carry the Mets all season.

  14. Give a good team enough chances and they'll be bound to win sooner or later. That held for the Phillies in 2008, so ipso facto, the Mets should make the playoffs are losing on the last day of the season two years in a row.

  15. It would be a shame if Pedro Martínez doesn't sign soon.

  16. Their Triple-A team, the Buffalo Bisons, is giving free tickets to the unemployed. That's not going to fly in Western New York. (The Jays having their top farm team there would have been nice, but it's not Buffalo's fault it didn't happen.)

  17. The Mets don't do the whole farm-system thing much at all. It's cute that their Double-A team in Binghamton, N.Y., is called the B-Mets, and the logo includes a bee. Ralph Wiggum would approve.

  18. One reason to be sentimental about the Mets: Starting catcher Brian Schneider is a former Expo. He gets the job done, although when a team's missed the playoffs a

  19. There wasn't a lot of news coverage about it, but they added two closers from the AL West, JJ Putz in a three-way trade involving the Mariners and Frankie Rodriguez from the Angels. It could have been three, but Huston Street had a bad year and no one could figure out who was closing for Texas, including the Rangers (C.J. Wilson, 22 saves, but a 6-something ERA).

  20. The 20th anniversary of Darryl Strawberry punching Keith Hernandez during a team photo session passed rather quietly last month. The joke at the time was, "It was the first time Strawberry hit the cutoff man all year."

  21. It was easy to get sucked into being a Marxist about the new stadium bearing the name of a major recipient of the U.S. federal government bailout. Few bothered to point out that Shea Stadium's namesake, Bill Shea, was a heavy-hitter lawyer who lobbied the U.S. Congress to pressure the National League into putting a team in New York City — and then helped get a stadium built at, wait for it, the taxpayers' expense. Putting Citi Group's name on the new place is actually true to history.

  22. Great trivia answer: They won a World Series before winning an Opening Day game (thank you, Real Clear Sports). The Mets lost their first eight openers before the Miracle in 1969.

  23. Opening Day in Cincinnati might be snowed out. You can question the wisdom of scheduling a game in Ohio on April 5, but baseball season always starts in Cincy, except when there's a game the night before.

  24. Former Met Gary Carter is managing the Atlantic League's Long Island Ducks, which the Good Lord willing, will provide further comic fodder.
  25. "Unfortunately, the immutable laws of physics contradict the entire premise of your account ..."



Sunday, April 05, 2009

Batter up: Florida Marlins

It's that mystical, wonderful time of year where you commit to a team who you know fully well won't win. This season, in honour of an popular Internet meme, we'll present 25 things about each Major League Baseball team. At bat: The Florida Marlins.
  1. Cynics would suggest that playing up the five acesJosh Johnson, Andrew Miller, Ricky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez and Chris Volstad — is good marketing for the Marlins. The irrationale in saying that is that there is no knowing what owner like Jeffrey Loria and team president David Samson, will dream up to irritate slugging shortstop Hanley Ramírez.

    Ramírez is signed through 2014. It's tempting to snark off that at least the team he'll be traded to will have some cost certainty.

  2. Jeffrey Loria bought his way into baseball for only $15 million (all terms US) in 1999 and is now getting a big honking stadium that is slated to cost $515 million. All this for someone who's worse for baseball than the big-spending Yankees.

  3. The Marlins basically are the Harry Sinden-era Boston Bruins: "Championships cost too much." An 84-77 record in 2008 from an organization ranked as the second-worst in baseball is a triumph of smarts and, well, the human spirit. Having 17 games against the Washington Nationals certainly helps too (the Marlins went 14-3 in the Loria Cup).

  4. The NL East is the shortstop division: Ramírez, the Mets' José Reyes, the Phillies' Jimmy Rollins and Washington's Cristian Guzmán are ranked 1-2-3-4 in The Beep's pre-season projections. There is a big drop-off after the first guy.

  5. Centrefielder Cameron Maybin (pictured) is a pretty good bet for rookie of the year. The Marlins' account is overdrawn, though, since the past five seasons have shown that Arizona's Brandon Webb would have been a better pick than Dontrelle Willis in 2003.

  6. One big X factor is how well switch-hitting Emilio Bonifacio and Maybin work out as the table-setters. Each has speed to burn, for what's that's worth, but you know how that chapter ends ... Ramírez, Dan Uggla, Jorge Cantu and Cody Ross (22 homers last season, albeit 10 in one month alone) are decent middle of the order.

  7. The Marlins should get credit for putting out a decent team when they have no extended market outside their home city. The Jays, for instance, can pull in fans from all over Ontario; Miami's surrounded by water on three sides.

  8. Copying the Yankees' ban on longish hair and jewelry would have been stupid even if Ramirez had been OK with it (which he wasn't, as you know). The Marlins don't need to follow the Yankees' lead. They have actually won a World Series this millennium.

  9. Their over/under for victories is 76. The over is doable.

  10. The Marlins won the World Series six seasons ago and won six seasons prior to that, and at least one person who might not be that serious is taking them to do it again.

  11. Johnson, who lost a season and a half to elbow surgery, had a 3.61 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 14 starts last season. The ERA would have been lower with some better fielding behind time.

  12. Ricky Nolasco, who is getting some all-star buzz after posting a 3.52 ERA and 186 strikeouts in his first full season, came to Florida in a 3-for-1 trade with the Cubs. Juan Pierre was the one going the other way, so score that for the Fish.

  13. New closer Matt Lindstrom will not miss Opening Day, after all.

  14. Marlins GM Larry Beinfest runs the team brilliant on a shoe string, which raises the question of what he would do with a franchise which wasn't first, second and 99th about wringing out every last dollar of profit. Thing is, he's been in his position seven years and no one has snapped him up.

  15. No one asked, but third baseman Emilio Bonifacio (5-foot-11, 180 lbs.) would seem to fit the profile of a second baseman better than Dan Uggla (listed at 5-11, 200) and vice versa. That being said, the Marlins, according to The Beep, went from being one of the worst fielding teams in 2007 to one of the better ones in 2008.

  16. And that being said, save your breath trying to convince anyone Uggla has a decent glove at second base after he made those three errors in that mid-season exhibition game last July at Yankee Stadium.

  17. It's quite amazing manager Fredi Gonzalez didn't get fined for joking, "We didn't get Bonds?" when the Marlins had to pick up an extra lefty hitter.

  18. They signed Ross Gload to be their lefty bat off the bench. He's not quite Barry Bonds.

  19. Wait, outfielder Jeremy Hermida also hits left-handed. His name has been strangely absent from the pre-season forecasts. That's what happens when you drop by 140 points in on-base-plus-slugging.

  20. Catcher Matt Treanor, the spouse of beach volleyball star Misty May, was traded to Detroit, which has far fewer beaches than Miami.

  21. Blue Jays pitching coach Brad Arnsberg doesn't wear the ring he got from Loria and Samson after they fired him in 2003 and the Marlins went on to win the World Series:
    "The only thing it has ever been out of its case for is my kids took it to Show and Tell when they were younger. I would never wear it. I would wear minor-league rings before I'd ever wear anything that those people were surrounded by. I have a gun safe where I keep my important paperwork, but I would never think about putting that ring in because if I lost it, it wouldn't bother me." — Palm Beach Post
  22. The all-Dickensian name team would have to include Florida farmhand Brett Sinkbeil, who does throw a sinkerball.

  23. Uggla's last name means "owl" in Sweden. By the way, Sager is a Swedish verb for "says." You can learn amazing things if you download How I Met Your Mother episodes with foreign subtitles.

    Opening Day in the Swedish Elitserien baseball league is April 25, incidentally.

  24. Ramírez, as pro athletes tend to do, named his first-born son Hanley Jr., but here's hoping his younger son, Hansel, makes the majors just so some announcer in 2032 can say, "That Hansel, he's so hot right now."

  25. The post-season is probably a year away.

Thursday, April 02, 2009

Batter up: Atlanta Braves

It's that mystical, wonderful time of year where you commit to a baseball team who you know fully well won't win. This season, in honour of an popular Internet meme, we'll present 25 things about each team. At bat: The Atlanta Braves.
  1. The party line that the Braves are "hard to dismiss" is off the mark. They're pretty easy to dismiss.

  2. The dead giveaway is that rightfielder Jeff Francoeur was not traded after hitting .239/.294/.359 last season. That's bad for a middle infielder, never mind a corner outfielder.

  3. Don't call it a sophomore jinx, but Jair Jurrjens might have plateaued. He's only 23 and sometimes pitchers whose stock-in-trade is command and control don't continue to improve once the league have had a good look at them. Yes, sometimes those baseball announcer cliches have a ring of truth.

  4. The Braves were 43-38 at home and 29-52 on the road. It would be great to find out if there's a correlation between a team's home/road split and whether they are still tuned in to their manager, Bobby Cox.

  5. Minor-league pitching phenom Tommy Hanson's demeanour, dare we say, looks a little Halladayesque (it's either the reddish hair or the No. 32). Don't make the mistake of reading too much into Hanson starting the season in the minors. It's one of those roster-management dealies.

  6. Veteran righty Derek Lowe, who is the nominal ace, gave up close to five runs per game on the road last season. That's a concern.

  7. The Braves seem always be having pitchers develop arm trouble, but that could never have anything to do with how Cox uses his bullpen.

  8. Based on their run differential last season, they should have been 79-83 instead of 72-90, seven wins better. That's part of where all this talk the Braves are a playoff team is coming from.

  9. Catcher Brian McCann, the middle-infield set of shortstop Yunel Escobar and second baseman Kelly Johnson, and rookie centrefielder Jordan Schafer are pretty good Core of Four. Unlike the great Dean Smith, the Braves have trouble with the Four Corners offence. Their leftfielders hit .258/.330/.352 last season and Francouer had his problems, while Casey Kotchman is a bit of a Lyle Overbay clone over at first base.

  10. Veteran pickup Javier Vazquez threw a complete-game six-hitter, struck out 10 (including Mark McGwire three times) the last time I visited Olympic Stadium, as one of a crowd of 7,760 for a Cardinals-Expos game on Aug. 7, 2001. Of course, the Expos lost because the late Darryl Kile threw a four-hitter for St. Louis. There's just something weird about reflecting that a dead guy was the winning pitcher the last time you went to a stadium that's no longer used for baseball.

  11. A good friend participates in a NL-only keeper fantasy league, which for people with non-nerdish leanings, means it's only National League players and you keep the same players from season to season. (How hardcore are they? They can draft a player before he's even eligible for the MLB Draft.)

    Schafer was the only player among baseball's top 30 prospects last season who hadn't been claimed. Now he's Atlanta's starting centrefielder.

  12. GM Frank Wren giving noted travel writer Chipper Jones a three-year extension: Great move or his greatest move? Jones is 37 years old in a league that doesn't have a DH.

  13. Braves telecasts used to be a staple of summer in Canada in the days of the Superstation. Now we get Peachtree TV, which means missing out on Chip Caray. Damn.

  14. The opening scene of Eastbound & Down did show Kenny Powers striking out the final batter of the World Series while wearing an Atlanta uniform, so let's take the time to express hope the show gets a second a second season. The first was awesome.

  15. It is disappointing to hear the Braves' Triple-A team in Gwinnett, Georgia, will have the imaginative sobriquet "Braves" instead of "Crackers." Where's their sense of humour? Their new park is apparently a jewel. It includes a grassy berm in the outfield, which all minor-league parks should be required to have because it makes for some great meet-cutes.


  16. Long-time Atlanta Journal-Constitution columnist Mark Bradley not only blogs, but he responds to the comments. He's got to watch it, he's giving old media a good name.

  17. Greg Maddux's retirement means Tom Glavine (305-203 lifetime) is baseball's winning active pitcher. There's a sneaking suspicion that Glavine and Maddux were locked into a game of chicken when it came to who would retire first. Maddux did, so he wins.

  18. Cox's second stint with the Braves began in 1990, which means he's the first person to manage the same team for 20 straight seasons since Walter Alston with the Dodgers in the '50s, '60s and '70s. He could have been that guy in Toronto (probably not).

  19. The Braves, according to USA Today, have started a baseball camp in Tenerife in order to get into the virtually untapped reservoir of European and African baseball talent. That's pretty cool.

  20. The downside to the Braves' skein of playoff appearances being broken in 2006 was no longer being able to e-mail sportswriters and correct them for referring to it as a "streak of 14 straight NL East titles." Their first three came in the NL West, and everyone remembers 1994.

  21. Minor-league first baseman Freddie Freeman is supposed to be the real deal, so Kotchman is basically a seat-filler.

  22. One hopes Kala Ka'aihue makes it to the majors, just for the name alone (Yes, he's the brother of Royals prospect Kila Ka'aihue).

  23. Henry Aaron's 755 homers is the most of any player with a surname starting with the letter A. But did you know his former Braves teammate Darrell Evans with the all-time leader among players with an E surname, with 414?

  24. The Braves will need to be bad for 10 years before those Bring Baseball To Atlanta bumper stickers (or the Go Braves And Take The Falcons With You alternative) will be trendy again.

  25. Garret Anderson is probably not going to be the answer in left field. The L.A. Angels let him go for a reason.