Zen Dayley: We might yet get saved from a Red Sox-Yankees ALCS

This time of year, you're bound to hear all sorts of October-only baseball fans coming out of the woodwork to make mountains of random statistical molehills.

For instance, the Philadelphia Phillies are vulnerable because closer Brad Lidge has sucked out loud. They're throwing Cliff Lee in Game 1 instead of Cole Hamels, who was vice-president of awesome in the 2008 playoffs but pitched like the assistant undersecretary of only OK for most of this season (but found his form the past couple weeks.)

The L.A. Dodgers dawdled and dragged their feet before finally wrapping up their division. The L.A. Angels have lost to the Boston Red Sox three consecutive times in the playoffs. The Yankees will not have Jorge Posada's bat in the lineup for a couple games, since weak-hitting Jose Molina is the personal catcher for A.J. Burnett. The Twins are scrappy -- they got shut out only four times all season!

All of that is well and good, but you might succumb to paralysis by analysis. The Bill James Playoff Predictor makes it nice and simple. (Or not.) It might be just as off and more serious Seamheads have likely discredited it, but at least it's is a fully hacked-out framework suitable for clipping and saving:

1. 1 point to the lead team for each half-game in the standings
2. 3 points to the team that scored more runs
3. 14 points to the team with fewer doubles
4. 12 points to the team with more triples
5. 10 points to the team with more home runs
6. 8 points to the team with the lower team batting average
7. 8 points to the team that committed fewer errors
8. 7 points to the team that turned more double plays
9. 7 points to the team that walked more batters
10. 19 points to the team that had more shutouts
11. 15 points to the team whose ERA was lower
12. 12 points to the team that has been in postseason most recently or went further
13. 12 points to the team that won season series.

Please click through to find out who is going to win. Long story short, you won't be so happy that the Minnesota Twins and not the Detroit Tigers won the AL Central title:

TWINS vs. YANKEES

1. Yankees were 16.5 games better, 103-59 to 87-76. (33 points)
   
2. Yankees scored 98 more runs, 915-817. (Yankees 3)
   
3. Yankees hit more doubles. (Twins 14)
4. Twins hit more triples. (Twins 12)
5. Yankees had 244-171 edge in home runs (Yankees 10)
6. Yankees hit .283, Twins .274 give or take a point. (Twins 8)
7. Twins made 76 errors, the Yankees had 86. (Twins 8)
8. Both teams turned 131 double plays. (no points and may God have mercy on your soul)
9. Yankees walked 574 batters, Twins 460. (Yankees 7)
10. Yankees had eight shutouts. The Twins had seven. (Yankees 19)
11. Yankees had a 4.28 ERA, Twins 4.50. (Yankees 15)
12. Yankees last reached the playoffs in 2007, Twins in 2006. (Yankees 12)
    
13. Yankees won the season series 7-0. (Yankees 12)
    
    Totals: Yankees 111, Twins 50
    

RED SOX vs. ANGELS

1. Angels were two games better, 97-65 to Boston's 95-67. (Angels 4)
2. Angels have 883-872 in runs scored (Angels 3)
3. The Red Sox hit 335 doubles, the Angels 293. (Angels 14)
4. Angels hit 33 triples, Red Sox 25. (Angels 12)
5. Red Sox have 212-173 edge in home runs. (Red Sox 10)
6. Angels hit .285, Red Sox hit .270. (Red Sox 8)
7. Red Sox made 82 errors, Angels made 85. (Red Sox 8)
8. Angels turned 174 double plays, Red Sox 119 (the most and the fewest in the AL, although that says more about each team's pitching staff). (Angels 7)
9. 7 points to the team that walked more batters (Red Sox 7)
10. The Angels had 13 shutouts, the Red Sox had 11. (Angels 19)
11. The Red Sox had a 4.35 ERA, the Angels' was 4.45. (Red Sox 15)
12. Red Sox were in the ALCS last season after eliminating Angels in division series. (Red Sox 12)
13. Angels won season series, 5-4. (Angels 12)
    
    Total: Angels 71, Red Sox 60

ROCKIES vs. PHILLIES

1. Phillies were 93-69, one game better than the Rockies' 92-70. (Phillies 2)
2. Phillies scored 820 runs, Rockies 804. (Phillies 3)
3. Phillies hit 312 doubles, Rockies hit 300. (Rockies 14)
4. Rockies hit 50 triples, Phillies hit 35. (Rockies 12)
5. Phillies hit 224 homers, the Rockies hit 190. (Phillies 10)
6. Rockies hit .261, Phillies .258. (Phillies 8)
7. Phillies made 76 errors, Rockies made 87 (combined that is only 10 more than the Washington Nationals, true story). (Phillies 8)
8. Rockies turned 144 double plays, Phillies 132. (Rockies 7)
9. Rockies walked 528 batters, Phillies 489. (Rockies 7)
10. Phillies had nine shutouts, the Rockies had seven. (Phillies 19)
11. The Phillies had a lower ERA, 4.16 to 4.24, but the Rockies had a better ERA+ (106 to 103) and despite Coors Field, allowed only slightly more runs per game (4.41-4.38). (Rockies 15)
12. 12 points to the team that has been in postseason most recently or went further (Phillies 12)
    
13. Phillies won the season series, 4-2. (Phillies 12)
    
    Total: Phillies 74, Rockies 55
    

CARDINALS vs. DODGERS

1. Dodgers were four games better, 95-67 to 91-71. (Dodgers 8)
2. Dodgers scored 780 runs, St. Louis 730. (Dodgers 3)
3. Cardinals have 294-278 edge in doubles. (Dodgers 14)
4. Dodgers have 39-29 edge in triples. (Dodgers 12)
5. Cardinals hit 160 home runs, Dodgers hit 145. (Cardinals 10)
6. Dodgers hit .270, Cardinals .263. (Cardinals 8)
7. Dodgers had 83 errors to Cardinals' 96. (Dodgers 8)
8. Cardinals turned 167 double plays, Dodgers 134. (Cardinals 7)
9. Dodgers walked 584 batters, Cardinals 460. (Dodgers 7)
10. Cardinals had 11 shutouts, Dodgers had nine. (Cardinals 19)
11. Dodgers had a 3.41 ERA to Cardinals' 3.66. (Dodgers 15)
12. Dodgers reached NLCS in 2008. (Dodgers 12)
    
13. Cardinals won the season series, 5-2. (Cardinals 12)
    
    Total: Dodgers 79, Cardinals 56

Enjoy the post-season. Is there any chance we'll see a promo for George Lopez's new talk show?