JEFF BAGWELL: EARLY ADOPTER AND FIRST BALLOT HALL OF FAMER

(Future Hall of Famer Jeff Bagwell is retiring today. Here's what appeared about him on Nov. 1, the day after it became clear he would retire.)

Jeff Bagwell has been handed a $7 million buyout package by the Houston Astros. Money for nothing -- what else would you expect from a franchise whose ballpark was once called Enron Field?

Very few Bagwell retirement tributes will refer to him and his buddy from the right side of the Astros infield, Craig Biggio, as "early adopters." That's Net lingo for people who can sense a coming change and lead it instead of react to it. Both Bags and Biggio were players who foreshadowed the Moneyball era -- which is why Bagwell's Hall of Fame credentials may be lost some of the Hall of Fame voters of an older generation. (Just look at the people who look like dunderheads for claiming that Mark McGwire's low career hit total is somehow relevant.)

The Hall of Fame voters have all these arbitrary standards -- 3,000 hits, 500 homers, a .300 career batting average, etc. -- that should have been discarded long ago, because they obscure the brilliance of players such as Bags and Biggio. Neither has a .300 career average, but both have excellent on-base percentages -- the all-important stat that teams used to discount before slowly waking up to its most importance over the past few years. Both were great "percentage players."

Both have skills which teams underrate. For Bagwell, that's defence and base-stealing ability from a first baseman. For Biggio, it's his surprising power for a second baseman.

That's lost on some baseball writers who fetishize Triple Crown stats -- batting average, home runs and RBI -- and World Series rings. When Bagwell comes up for the Hall of Fame, they'll look at the .297 career batting average and 449 career home runs -- fewer dingers than Jose Canseco, Fred McGriff and the disgraced Rafael Palmeiro (and Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire, all of whose hopes for the Hall range from not a chance to iffy at best, for various reasons.)

On a side note, Bags and Biggio's career arc reflects how baseball, in the States, has tried to become (like a lot of U.S. pop culture) this white, Christian right-pandering enterprise — ironically at a time when it's more of a global game than ever before. The '05 Astros were the first pennant winner in 50 years to not have a single African-American on their roster.

A generation ago, baseball had lots of coulda-been-anything guys, black and white, who could easily be pictured playing another sport: Kirk Gibson, Paul Molitor, Eric Davis, Tim Raines, Rickey Henderson or Dave Winfield. Tom Glavine and Orel Hershiser both could have played hockey. Understandably, that could be off-putting to a veteran baseball writer.

Those are just a couple factors in why Bagwell and Biggio have gone so unnoticed. Back in '03, ESPN.com did a poll (unscientific, I know) and respondents didn't think either was a Hall of Famer. People have come around on Biggio, but mainly because he's hung on long enough to approach 3,000 career hits.

(Biggio reached 3,000 secondary bases a couple years ago. Hopefully, voters will perk up to value of secondary bases in a player's Hall of Fame credentials: Tim Raines, the great Montreal Expo, fell short of 3,000 hits due to injuries, but had more than 3,300 secondary bases.)

Bagwell slowed down after 2001 due to an arthritic right shoulder, which along with nine seasons of 81 games a year at the Astrodome cost him a shot at 500 homers. Still, a player should be taken at his peak value, and he managed 449 homers while playing only 14 full seasons. That's a Hall of Famer. He's also had the same strikes against him that Carlos Delgado has had -- played for a team that didn't get a lot of attention, and he was very consistent year-in year-out, so he didn't generate a lot of buzz like Ryan Howard or Justin Morneau did this year.

Plus, in the '90s, there was always a ton of guys putting up these ridiculous home run and RBI totals each year. Brady Anderson once hit 50 home runs in a season. It's tough to sift through the numbers and figure out who was for real during the Steroid Era. The 5-foot-11 Bagwell's body type changed a little but he seems to have escaped scrutiny, since the rules of American sports journalism prohibit steroid allegations from being directed at average-sized Caucasian ballplayers on teams based in Red States.

Nevertheless, Bags was bona fide, all right. His stats list how he fares on a series of litmus tests Bill James devised to measure a player's Cooperstown credentials, and Bagwell passes three of the four, no problem. It's just that his greatness is obscured from some people since:

1. He didn't play in a major baseball market
2. Wasn't in the post-season every year, and struggled when his team did make it
3. Played in a pitcher's park -- it would be a fair guess that he lost 4-5 homers a year while playing in the Astrodome from 1991 to '99
4. Didn't get to pad his stats during the "wind-down" portion of his career
5. His offensive skills were spread out over several areas, rather than just one or two (like McGwire and his home runs, or Tony Gwynn and his batting average)

Bagwell, like Albert Pujols, was a more complete player than the aforementioned guys who put up big career home run totals and won't get into Cooperstown. That should be taken into account. He's the only first baseman to ever have a 30-homer, 30-stolen base year, and he did win one Gold Glove for his defence.

Take a look at that .408 career on-base percentage -- OBP goes a lot farther toward helping a baseball team win than batting average. Take a look at his all-around game. Oh, and while I don't have the time to put it in historical context, his on-base plus slugging (OPS) of .948 is among the top 25, all time.

A Hall of Famer? Hell yes. There are plenty of early adopters among baseball nuts who realize Bagwell was a brilliant player. If he's not a first-ballot Hall of Famer, then burn the place down.

OK, please don't burn the place down.

Related:
Jeff Bagwell career stats (Baseball-Reference.com)

Quick note on secondary average (extra bases on hits, walks, hit by pitches and steals divided by total at-bats): Craig Biggio has a career batting average of .283, but his secondary average is .329. Fellow middle infielder and sure-fire first-ballot Hall of Famer Cal Ripken hit .276 lifetime, with a secondary average of .278. (I'm including hit-by-pitches in these figures, although some people don't.)

Tony Gwynn hit .338 for his career, but his secondary average is only .242. Again, none of this has been put in the context of eras or home parks.

Talk you later. Send your thoughts to neatesager@yahoo.ca.