A Jay a Day: Free John McDonald (sort of)

John McDonald is actually starting a game today.

The non-use of McDonald is an entry point for discussing one of the more enigmatic aspects of how Blue Jays manage their 25-man roster. It's a bit dated, but Marc Hulet pointed out recently at FanGraphs that Cito seems to be playing a game of burnout with his regulars. Four Jays have started at least 78 of the team's 83 games. Marco Scutaro, who has been awesome at shortstop, has started every game (and yes, finding a picture from 2007 of McDonald and Scutaro together was deliberate). If you use 78 starts as the threshold, the Red Sox, Rays and AL Central-leading Detroit Tigers have each used two regulars that often. The Yankees have only one, second baseman Robinson Cano.

Hulet's point bears reiterating since it helps fill in the picture with the Jays, who are 15-27 since May 19 and will be at .500 for the first time all season if they lose vs. the Yankees today. The perfect storm of arm ailments, the equivalent of an entire starting rotation on the disabled list, has been a huge culprit, but Hulet raised a good point about the over-use of five players.

"As of June 20, the Jays club had played 78 games (41-37). Five regulars had played 76 games or more: Aaron Hill, Marco Scutaro, Adam Lind, Vernon Wells, and Alex Rios. Two of those players (Rios and Wells) have been terrible this season and were also left in the No. 3 and 4 holes in the lineup until mid-June.

"Two other players are obviously being over-worked by the manager. Hill appeared in just 55 games last year due to a concussion. Despite the time off, the manager has failed to ease the second baseman back into regular play. Scutaro, the club’s undisputed spark plug in the first two months, had never really been a full-time player until last year when he appeared in 145 games. At 33, he’s no spring chicken.

"... As a side note, I’d also like to point out the disappointing use of veteran back-up infielder John McDonald. The fifth-year Jay has been used in just 28 games this season with just 26 at-bats. That is the most embarrassing use of any player in the Majors this season ... That, ladies and gentlemen, is not the way to use you bench ... Or treat your veteran players. You know, the ones you’d have to turn to if your starting shortstop or second baseman suddenly got hurt."

Obviously, no right-thinking fan wishes Hill or Scutaro ill just so he can say, "Told you so." Hill, the all-star second baseman, has emerged as the Jays' best all-around player. Scutaro, by the numbers, has been the best-fielding shortstop in the American League. The fact remains is that, after leading off and playing short every game and batting a league-high 395 times (this is someone who's only had 500 plate appearances once in his career, and that was last season), Scutaro has dropped off with the stick.

April & May: .305/.408/.457
Since June 1: .244/.336/.350

The rub is John McDonald is still on the team, two seasons after a lot of bandwidth was burned up debating whether his combination of web gem-worthy fielding and hide-your-eyes hitting made him an acceptable as a No. 1 shortstop. It's not about whether he should get more starts at the expense of Hill and Scutaro. The point is that the Jays should have somebody who can spell off their starting middle infielders.

Today marks only the fourth start all season for McGlovin, three at second base and one at third (oddly enough, he had a rare two-hit game that day, both singles, in a 10-0 loss to the Philadelphia Phillies). The way McDonald has been utilized is tantamount to wasting the 25th spot on the roster.

The onus is not necessarily on Cito Gaston as the field manager. It could be that the front office has not stocked the team with viable options to spell off Hill, Scutaro, Rios and Wells (Jose Bautista has been a decent find, but he can only play the corner positions). Point being, overplaying the regulars too much tempts fate.

The Jays ought to make a decision on McDonald, who is in the back half of a two-year contract, before the end of the season. Give him his freedom to find another organization where he might actually get to start a game more than once a month.

(For point of comparison, Gaston does not like to use his bench much, but it was nothing like this back in the glory days. On the 1992 team, Devon White was the heaviest-used regular, starting 151 games in centrefield, while Roberto Alomar started 149. The following season, Alomar, Ed Sprague and Joe Carter, who shuffled between the corner outfield spots, each started at least 150 games.

The '93 World Series-winning Jays used the 25th spot on a Rule 5 draft pick named Willie Canate, who got 47 at-bats all season, got caught in a rundown during his only appearance in the World Series and never appeared in the majors again. They had nothing on the 1985 team, which carried two Rule 5 picks, Manuel Lee and Lou Thornton, meaning it played the whole season with 23 guys. That was obviously before Tony La Russa invented the 12-man pitching staff.)

A Jay A Day: Statistics say, keep Wells and Rios together, just much lower in the lineup

You can see by the look of Vernon Wells' numbers it's time to get into this again.

One wonders what was behind Wells having been written into the fourth spot in the lineup day after day. (Tony Ambrogio's Twitter says he'll hit third, with Adam Lind — finally! — hitting cleanup and Alex Rios dropping to the six-spot. Why did it take this long? Was it part of a power struggle, with Paul Beeston as the permanent interim president and J.P. Ricciardi trying to stay employed? Is it the cult of personality around Cito Gaston that kept Toronto baseball writers from saying, "My wife, she has been most vocal on the subject of Vernon Wells. Where is he hitting today? When are you going to move him out of the cleanup spot? And so forth."

The Jays are not dumb on the baseball side. Someone working for them must be aware that 274 plate appearances into the season, a player's numbers are pretty much are what they are. The upside of fan anger, best represented by Sports And The City's Vernon Wells Hatred Advisory System, is that at least there's a way to show leaving Wells in the cleanup spot on faith is unsubstantiated baloney, in the parlance of our times.

Baseball Musings has a lineup analysis tool which anyone can use to determine the best batting order. You type in the on-base and slugging percentages of nine hitters, hit the submit button and voilà, find out that yes, it is crazy for Cito (more like Sito, since he's sitting on his hands) to keep writing Wells into the middle of the order. The $126-million-dollar man has the worst slugging (.387) and second-worst on-base percentage (.307) among the Jays' everyday players, for pete's sake. This is the best possible Jays lineup that it returned, with each's players on-base and slugging percentages in brackets:

1. Marco Scutaro, SS (.400/.451)
   
2. Lyle Overbay, 1B (.397/.553)
3. Scott Rolen, 3B (.382/.455)
4. Adam Lind, LF or DH (.381/.562)
5. Aaron Hill, 2B (.346/.500)
6. Rod Barajas, C (.303/.408)
7. Alex Rios, RF (.319/.423)
8. Vernon Wells, CF (.307/.387)
9. José Bautista, LF or DH (.400/.368)

For argument's sake, the team's splits vs. lefties suggest that against southpaws, Overbay could be dropped to the sixth spot, with Barajas sliding into the 5-hole and Hill batting second.

In a run-neutral setting, that collection of data representing Blue Jays hitters would average 5.82 runs per game. The worst possible lineup, which would have Barajas, the paunchy catcher, in the leadoff spot with Wells batting second, would still average 5.25 runs.

The current Jays are averaging 5.03 runs (above the league average, 4.78). That's good, but it suggests they could be more productive if Wells wasn't dragging them down.

Another feature of BM's tool is that it shows outcomes for a number of possible lineups. The constants are Marco Scutaro hitting leadoff, some combination of the two lefties, Lind and Overbay, and the righty-hitting infielders, Hill and Rolen, in the 2-5 slots, and Wells being well down in the lineup. There were a few that show the Jays could get away with Alex Rios as the No. 3 hitter.

Data representing Blue Jays players does not fully capture their mental or physical well-being, or if they have just been hitting a lot of at-'em balls, or have a flaw in their swing which can be corrected. If you liken the baseball swing to a golf swing on another plane, Wells does not look like he was what golf nuts call "quiet hands," which makes it harder for him to square up and make solid contact. That might explain his low batting average on balls in play (.258) and why any improvement the rest of the way will probably be marginal.

The point is as a fan, either take it on faith that Wells will snap out of it or accept that in a snug-panted exercise in statistic memorization such as baseball (fist bump: Jay Pinkerton), there's usually a reasonable projection of how someone's going to produce. Wells is nearing 300 times at bat for the season. The water has found its own level. FanGraphs has Wells projected to end up with 15 homers and 75 RBI. Those aren't cleanup hitter numbers in any generation.

Meantime, the FAN 590's Mike Wilner said Gaston will consider making a change in "a month" if things don't improve. A month? We have seen enough already.

The bottom line is the sample sizes are big enough to know Wells will only improve somewhat over the last 100 games of this season. As The Tao of Stieb noted today, he has not produced to the point where it is costing the ballclub:

"In the 32 games since Vernon Wells last hit a ball out of the park (May 6th versus Anaheim), he has posted a .574 OPS and driven in a grand total of seven runs in 134 plate appearances. Each one of which, it should be noted, with him hitting fourth in the Jays batting order, just to beat that dead horse again.

"And dare we mention that Travis Snider was exiled to Las Vegas after posting an OPS of .686 in 108 plate appearances? If that sort of performance merits a demotion - and it did - then shouldn't Vernon receive some sort of demotion himself? Like maybe a week or two of hitting seventh or eighth in the lineup?

"Most importantly, the Jays have gone 14-18 in those games. We'd hazard a guess that not many teams would do much better with their cleanup hitter putting up numbers that could be bested by the fourth outfielder on their Triple-A team."

Personally, there was reluctance to get into this, since it would be running over some well-trod ground.

Most Jays and/or Toronto sports blogs have been harping about this for several weeks. It seemed best to just to fall back on the old standby adopted by office drones the world over, "You don't want to know what I think." However, there was a spur to speak up after hearing Gaston tell Jerry Howarth prior to last Sunday's game that he wasn't giving consideration to dropping Rios and Wells. The gist of it, from Gaston's point of view, was that "you don't want to panic." He also said you can't "hide" struggling hitters in the lineup, which did not answer the question of why he would keep them in the two spots in the lineup which get the most chance to produce runs, either by driving in the table-setters or. Now he's going to wait a month?

The irony is that there is a counter-argument that the Jays might be reluctant to take decisive action since Rios and Wells are perceived as their two highest-paid players. They would open themselves up to criticism if they take two players due to earn close to $200-million US through the 2014 season and hit them 7-8. (Technically, the Jays' highest-paid position players are actually Rolen and Overbay.)

However, there is a lot of cynicism in the Toronto sports market. Jays attendance is down a bit this year, although their TV ratings have risen about 7%. There is interest in this team, but not blind devotion. A demotion for Wells and Rios probably would be good from a bottom-line point of view.

A strong organization would ride it out and make the best of being stuck with Wells, instead of exacerbating the worst of it.

A Jay a Day: Adam Dunn is a left-handed thumper, eh

The word has travelled around the block that the Blue Jays would like to get "a thumper" if they can stay in the playoff race.

GM J.P. Ricciardi dropped some hints to Jordan Bastian and FOXSports.com's man on the inside chimed in, "Club officials ... are more apt to pursue a left-handed slugger unless Travis Snider proves to be the answer. The Orioles' Aubrey Huff, Nationals' Nick Johnson and Pirates' Adam LaRoche all could fit for the Jays."

Lefty hitters have accounted for only 23% of the Jays' plate attendance, a far cry from the insanely balanced Tampa Bay Rays lineup. The need for a lefty bat is as obvious as the logic of trying Aaron Hill in the middle of the order, down in the order (Ken Rosenthal mentioned that, too) even if that's probably not happening. Vernon Wells is miscast as a cleanup hitter, as everyone knows. The Jays could better take advantage of Wells' superior baserunning if he was allowed to hit in the 2-hole.

Ken Rosenthal's latest, though, didn't mention the Washington Nationals' Adam Dunn, for reasons which are unclear. (Are riffs on Dunn not liking baseball that much still OK?) Dunn has a big deal ($10 million per), so that might make him off-limits. Anyway, it's a good jumping-off point for a discussion. The point isn't to say who the Jays should get if they're still a game out of the wild card on July 2. It's good to know who is out there.

• Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego: Mention Going, Going Gonzo once just to get it out of your system. The Padres ain't dealing.


• Aubrey Huff, Baltimore: If Huff talk starts to heat up, you will hear ad nauseam that he has always hit well at Rogers Centre (.321/.400/.546 with 14 homers in 73 games) and that he played for Tampa Bay when Jays pitcher Jesse Litsch was a batboy for the then-Devil Rays. That anecdote never gets old.
  
  Huff typically has been a better second-half hitter. The more one thinks of it, the more it might be palatable, although there is the taboo of trading within the division for three months of Aubrey Huff at-bats (he's a free agent after the season).
  
  
• Nick Johnson, Washington: He's an on-base machine with only modest power.


• Adam LaRoche, Pittsburgh: Over the past five years he's on-based .360 and slugged .548 in the second half of the season (sotto vote, in the National League), and like Johnson and Huff he's a free agent. He would not cost an arm and a leg.
  
  
• Jason Giambi, Oakland: Le snark just is be that Giambi oughta be grateful his struggles (.216/.355/.364, just six homers) are coming on a West Coast team which doesn't get much media attention. He's not as low-hanging fruit like David Ortiz.
  
  Giambi's splits are even uglier than sin (the ballpark isn't hurting his numbers, and only two of his six homers have been off righties). He's not necessarily washed up but the A's won't trade him unless he starts to hit (and he has hit .279/.366/.536 at Rogers Centre with 22 homers, more than he's hit anywhere else outside of his home parks.).
  


• Travis Hafner or Victor Martinez, Cleveland: Hey, the nine-games-under-.500 Indians aren't done yet ... wait, they are. However, Hafner is damaged goods and Martinez's flexibility as a catcher-first baseman means he's too valuable to the Clevelanders.
  


• David Ortiz, Red Sox: Just kidding. He's just in here for a cheap segue to Bill Simmons' column on the fall of Big Papi, who fallen into obsolescence faster than the Republican Party.

Damn, the Jays:

• FanGraphs can see four Jays in the All-Star game: Scott Downs, Roy Halladay, Aaron Hill and MAR-co SCU-ta-ro.


• Major reputation points to The Tao of Stieb for its Q&A with Ryan Greene, who covers the Triple-A team in Las Vegas. He had a profile of Travis Snider the other day. The player whom the FAN 590's Mike Toth intimated wasn't coachable seems pretty aware of what he needs to work on:

  "I'd say there was a period of time where I got outside of my approach and got really swing-happy, trying to hit off-speed pitches in the dirt instead of waiting for a fastball ....I think as you go through it and you start to chase those balls and you're not having the success that you want to, you start to try and change things instead of sticking with what you're doing and changing your approach."

  An uneducated guess is Snider doesn't return until after the all-star break.

Jay a Day: It's veheming about Vernon Wells week

Although Vernon Wells is struggling at the plate he is also a very poor fielder. It's a small sample size, but he's the worst in the majors.

"Vernon Wells' days as a good center fielder might be over. Over the last three years: -14.3, -1.1, 7.5, so far this year Wells is showing no signs of bouncing back, and actually seems to be getting worse. Whether that holds up or not is another story."
— R.J. Anderson, FanGraphs

A true Jays fan is sworn to stand by the "putative cleanup hitter for life (who) hasn't driven in a run since May 6" (The Tao of Stieb). He is ours, thanks to that seven-year, $126-million U.S. contract he signed in late 2006 which was universally praised, present company included. The numbers don't lie, though.

Wells is always going to be the punching bag of first resort, thanks to his contract. Please don't classify it as Tall Poppy Syndrome, since he would firs thave to be a tall poppy.

The question is how to reconcile that Vernon Wells, as far as anyone knows, is a decent player who does and says all the right things ("I take a lot of responsibility for what's going on, and it's frustrating for everyone") but not a superstar nor someone who can be easily traded.

He is going to have periods where he hits very well and it will seem like the Wells of 2003 or '06 is coming back ... ah, yes, the real Vernon ... and then regress. He makes better contact than he once did, but it's not clear if that necessarily means he controls the strike zone better. Where once he used to strike out about every seven times at bat, it's now once less every 10. His walk-to-strikeout ratio so far this season is 1:1, but most players' walk rates improve as they get older. Most damningly, he hasn't had an opposite-field hit all season.

It probably will get tougher, from here on out, to justify Wells hitting cleanup and playing centrefield. Flipping him and lefty-hitting Adam Lind in the 4-5 spots could be a temporary salve, since Wells is historically most productive batting fifth or sixth. Alex Rios' fielding in right has raised some hackles, so having him and Wells switch spots might not even be salable.

Anyway, six-game losing skid or not (as soon as Cito Gaston went to Shawn Camp in the bottom of the seventh in the 10-2 loss to Atlanta, it was time to bounce), it's never as bad it seems when it is going bad, just as it is never as good as it seems when it's going well. June and July are typically Wells' best months offensively (career-wise, he was OPS-plused 116 and 122 in those months, compared to 92 and 101 for April and May and 88 and 91 for August and Sept./Oct.). In other words, relax, it's gonna be OK, provided Cito is open to some kind of decisive action.