Friday, September 15, 2006

NFL WEEK 2 PICKS: BEWARE OF THE DOUBLE-DIGIT UNDERDOGS

(Originally posted Thurs., Sept. 14.)

Yes,
Out of Left Field is obliged to provide weekly NFL picks that are guaranteed to be no more, or no less accurate than some of the various experts out there. These picks are for recreational use only, so don't come crying to me when you're 64 grand in the hole and they're threatening to take your thumbs. Beginning this week, Associate Blogger Neil Acharya and View From The Nosebleeds' Pat Pearce join in on the fun. It's an Eastern Ontario/East Coast thing.

(See Week 1's gadawful picks. All lines are from covers.com as of 2 p.m. Eastern.)

Sunday, 1 p.m.
BUFFALO (plus 6½) at MIAMI (over/under 37)
Miami should rebound, but the Bills tend to be a good against-the-spread team.
Acharya: Dolphins 20-16 (Bills cover).
Pearce: Dolphins 24-21 (Bills cover).
Sager: Dolphins 23-20 (Bills cover).
WINNER: Bills 16-6.

CAROLINA (minus 1) at MINNESOTA (o/u 37)
Doing the reverse-psychology tactic this week by picking against the Vikes. May they pull another shocker.
Acharya: Panthers 16-14.
Pearce: Vikings 21-17.
Sager: Panthers 24-17.
WINNER: Vikings 16-13 (in OT).

CLEVELAND (plus 10) at CINCINNATI (o/u 42)
Very tempted to pick the Browns here due to the big spread. Make this the What The Hell pick, since one of these double-digit underdogs has to cover the spread.
Acharya: Bengals 30-17.
Pearce: Bengals 30-17.
Sager: Bengals 28-20 (Browns cover).
WINNER: Bengals 34-17.

DETROIT (plus 9½) at CHICAGO (o/u 32)
Is anyone taking the over on this game? It might take two or three pass-interference calls on one drive to produce a touchdown.
Acharya: Bears 13-6 (Lions cover).
Pearce: Bears 17-10 (Lions cover).
Sager: Bears 19-9.
WINNER: Bears 34-7.

HOUSTON (plus 13½) at INDIANAPOLIS (o/u 47)
In these teams' last three meetings at Indy, the "over" has won every time, but Houston is 2-2 against the spread all-time at the RCA Dome.
Acharya:Colts 37-20.
Pearce: Colts 42-17.
Sager: Colts 31-17.
WINNER: Colts 43-24.

NEW ORLEANS (minus 2) at GREEN BAY (o/u 38)
The Saints lost 52-3 at Lambeau last season, but that was a different team under trying circumstances. Still, they typically don't do well in the second of back-to-back road games, although Brett Favre could deliver them a victory with some ill-timed interceptions.
Acharya: Saints 17-16 (Packers cover).
Pearce: Saints 24-7.
Sager: Packers 24-20.
WINNER: Saints 34-27.

N.Y. GIANTS (plus 3) at PHILADEPHIA (o/u 42)
The Eagles should be fired up to play a team that beat them twice when they were in disarray last season thanks to you-know-who's general jackassery.
Acharya: Giants 20-17.
Pearce: Eagles 35-33 (Giants cover).
Sager: Eagles 23-13.
WINNER: Giants 30-24 (in OT).

OAKLAND (plus 12) at BALTIMORE (o/u 34)
No more What The Hell picks on the Raiders. They can't be worse than they were against the Chargers since that would be frickin' next to impossible, but it's going to take a while to sort out their problems.
Acharya: Ravens 27-17.
Pearce: Ravens 24-10.
Sager: Ravens 26-3.
WINNER: Ravens 28-6.

TAMPA BAY (plus 5½) at ATLANTA (o/u 36)
The Bucs blew chunks last week, but have covered in three of their past four trips to Atlanta. They should bounce back from last week and play a half-decent game.
Acharya: Falcons 24-23 (Bucs cover).
Pearce: Falcons 20-10.
Sager: Falcons 17-14 (Bucs cover).
WINNER: Falcons 14-3.

Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
ARIZONA (plus 7) at SEATTLE (o/u 47)
The number of points scored should more closely resemble Arizona's opener (34-27) than Seattle's (9-6). Neither team covered last week.
Acharya: Seahawks 26-20 (Cardinals cover).
Pearce: Seahawks 27-14.
Sager: Seahawks 28-24 (Cardinals cover).
WINNER: Seahawks 21-10.

ST. LOUIS (minus 3) at SAN FRANCISCO (o/u 43)
The Rams are sure to be a more popular choice this week.
Acharya: Rams 19-14.
Pearce: Rams 17-10.
Sager: Rams 27-10.
WINNER: 49ers 17-10.

Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
KANSAS CITY (plus 10½) at DENVER (o/u 40)
The play sheet for Chiefs QB Damon Huard says, "Take a knee."
Acharya: Broncos 31-24 (Chiefs cover).
Pearce: Broncos 27-17 (Chiefs cover).
Sager: Broncos 27-7.
WINNER: Broncos 9-6.

NEW ENGLAND (minus 6) at N.Y. JETS (o/u 37)
After failing to cover last week, New England should recover.
Acharya: Patriots 25-13.
Pearce: Jets 17-14.
Sager: Patriots 26-14.
WINNER: Patriots 24-17.

TENNESSEE (plus 11½) at SAN DIEGO (o/u 38)
There are five 10-plus point underdogs this week (and Detroit could become a sixth if the line moves before kickoff). You have to believe that chances are one or two will cover the spread, but the Titans are unlikely to be among them. They're not very good.
Acharya: Chargers 30-9.
Pearce: Chargers 32-14.
Sager: Chargers 31-17.
WINNER: Chargers 40-7.

Sunday nighter
WASHINGTON (plus 6) at DALLAS (o/u 37)
Man, it's tough to determine which of these franchises is more contemptible.
Acharya: Dallas 24-23 (Redskins cover).
Pearce: Dallas 24-21 (Redskins cover)
Sager: Dallas 20-16 (Redskins cover).
WINNER: Dallas 27-10.

Monday nighter
PITTSBURGH (plus 1½) at JACKSONVILLE (o/u 36½)
When did an overgrown retirement village like Jacksonville start thinking it was big-league? Acharya: Jags 20-16.
Pearce: Steelers 23-19.
Sager: Steelers 28-17.
WINNER: Jags 9-0.

Neil Acharya's season to date: First week

Pat Pearce's season to date:
Straight up: 11-5 (.688)
Against the spread: 9-7 (.538)
Over/Under: 3-13 (.188)

Neate Sager's season to date
Straight up:
8-8 (.500)
Against the spread: 6-10 (.375)
Over/Under: 8-8 (.500)

That's all for now. Send your thoughts to neatesager@yahoo.ca.

2 comments:

SAMO said...

There are so many double digit games...how can anyone actually bet on these games?

sager said...

Remember, last year was abnormally high for favourites covering.

I think we're seeing some compensation from the bookmakers.