JAYS BLOW DUST OFF WALLET (MAYBE SO, MAYBE NOT)

Word is the Toronto Blue Jays are at least talking about increasing the payroll for next year. Owner Ted Rogers (AKA Uncle Ted) even said so, pointing to increased TV audiences and ticket sales.

It's easy to curb your enthusiasm when you're a southern Ontario sports fan who's usually to swallowing a lot of not-so-sweet-tasting stuff from various athletic outfits. Is this for real, and if so, how much of a hike are the Jays planning? At first blush, the timing is a little curious, since it comes just before the Leafs start training camp and the Jays get pushed off the front pages of the newspapers. Wouldn't want those upcoming series against the Evil Empires later this month to feel like road games.

Given some of the deals they have entered to and what it will cost to sign Vernon Wells to a long-term deal, something in the $90 million range is called for; anything else would be borderline small-town cheap.

Conspiracy theorists might note that with the collective agreement with the players' association nearing its end, you might not see much spending this off-season, especially for teams such as the Jays, who would have you believe baseball's current economics and division alignments leave them doomed to be in third place forever. (They're half-right, though: Four years ago the Jays' then-$50 million payroll was about half that of the Yankees, and two-thirds that of Boston. Now its $70 million payroll is barely one-third that of the Yankees, and about two-fifths that of the Evil Empire 1-A.)

That much-discussed $210 million over three years commitment that was supposed to cover 2005-07 has already been eaten away, as Batter's Box showed when it looked at the 2007 Jays salaries about five weeks ago. As best I can figure today, the Jays already stand to have $60 million tied up in A.J. Burnett, Roy Halladay, Troy Glaus, Josh Towers, Wells (who's due $5.6 million next year) and the buyout they're likely to offer Bengie Molina to take his brick-filled pants elsewhere.

Alex Rios, Reed Johnson and Lyle Overbay are also due raises, so that's another $10 million. Then the Jays have to find money to re-sign Gregg Zaun, find a No. 2 catcher, a left-fielder (Frank Catalanatto is up for free agency) plus a middle infielder to complement Aaron Hill (let Russ Adams be someone else's problem) and help for the starting pitching and relieving.

So yes, it's a positive that Rogers is at least leaving the door to spending more and agrees you can't win the AL East on $70 million, but it's best to take a wait-and-see attitude.

Previously:
Lock It Up: Jays, Wells In For The Long Haul (Aug. 9)
Money Tight in Ted Rogers' Neighbourhood (Aug. 2)