LOCK IT UP: JAYS, WELLS IN FOR THE LONG HAUL

One has to wonder if the Blue Jays have explored what they could get in a trade for centre-fielder Vernon Wells.

Sounds nuts, right? Wells is a gem, just entering his prime, both in terms of skill and peak earning years as a major-league baseball player. He is poised to win his third straight Gold Glove and set career bests in batting average, on-base and slugging percentages while producing a 30-homer, 100-RBI season.

The sense here is that the debate is already being framed around the premise that the Jays absolutely must keep Wells. The Toronto Sun's Bob Elliott writes today that first and foremost among the Blue Jays' top off-season priorities "should be and will be locking up" Wells to a long-term contract.

Most fans would read that and say, Amen, brother. It is a waste of breath to try and convince most baseball observers that Wells isn't the most valuable centre-fielder in the American League, the Win Shares system says that this season, it's actually Curtis Granderson of the Detroit Tigers (he's just as good defensively, and loses a lot of his offence to his home ballpark). Of course, Wells is an established star, and Granderson is a relative upstart.

However, as noted by this space a couple weeks ago (admittedly, it was following some good work by Batter's Box), and acknowledged by Elliott, the Jays won't add that much more payroll for 2007 if the club's corporate owner, Rogers Communications, sticks to its pledge of spending $210 million (all figures U.S.) over three years on salaries. According to Elliott's column, the Jays are spending about $72 million on salaries this season, will be in the $75-$80M range next season.

Wells is due $5.6 million for 2007. Given what fellow centre-fielders Johnny Damon (four years, $52 million from the Yankees) and Carlos Beltrán (seven years, $119 million from the Mets in 2005) got as free agents, it's probably going to take an offer in the $15 million a year range for the Jays to keep V-Dub in the black, blue and whatever they call that silvery-grey shade they use for the numbers on the jerseys and off the free-agent market. (Wells might not command as much since both New York teams have commitments at that position.)

Throw in the raises due to the younger guys -- Reed Johnson, Alex Rios, et al., -- and the salary increases due to the likes of Troy Glaus, A.J. Burnett, and B.J. Ryan, and boom goes the dynamite on the possibility of any big signings to fill the Jays' obvious holes, unless Rogers approves a higher payroll. Once again, the Jays' big off-season needs are going to be the catching, middle infield, the back end of the starting rotation and the bullpen.

So if the Jays want to go all in for a playoff berth next season, trading Vernon Wells might be one way to have a more well-rounded team.

Of course, there's still some ifs to contemplate.

Plus, after the Jays finish this season with somewhere between 83 and 90 wins (although after last night you might wonder if a winning record is even likely), the last move management could make without bringing a major media and fan firestorm upon itself would be to trade its marquee player.

Besides, it's short-term thinking to believe the Jays would have to sacrifice a good homegrown player to meet some corporate-mandated bottom line next year. What about in '08, or '09, after Rogers possibly loosens the purse strings?

Question: Is it worth a division title or a wild-card berth to deprive Toronto fans of seeing a player of Wells' capabilities in a Jays uniform for the rest of this decade and into this one? Probably not. Also, the Jays could make the playoffs one of these years if they pull off a blockbuster trade with Wells, but they could do it if they kept them as the centrepiece of the team.

Put me down for a gutless endorsement of the Jays signing Wells to a long-term contract and figuring out how they're going to address the other areas of the club. Yes, it's fun to explore the radical move of possibly trading the star and having a more balanced team, but today the road less travelled seems weird and scary.

(Subject to last night's ranting, Justin Speier, who gave up the game-deciding hit against Baltimore, was put on the disabled list with tightness in his right forearm.)

That's all for now. Send your thoughts to neatesager@yahoo.ca.