Saturday, August 12, 2006

TWIN KILLING, INDEED: JAYS DP COMBO RAISES A TEMPORARY GLOW

Go figure. One night after the Single-A Dunedin Blue Jays held You're With Me, Leather Night, the big club truly was with leather tonight, turning a club record-tying six double plays in a 4-0 victory over the Minnesota Twins.

Sigh. Where was this defence earlier on in the year, when the Jays seemed to turn fewer DPs than they should have been expected to and gave opponents a lot of four-out innings. Reed Johnson, who hit a two-run homer tonight, made a great point during the post-game show: Long defensive innings where everyone is standing around (and standing around some more) can really sap a team's hitting.

There really isn't much more for a Jays fan to do but watch each game and focus on a couple players in hope of figuring out where they might fit into next year's plans. (You know, just in case J.P. Ricciardi decides that a guy in Ottawa who sees about two games in person and a year and has never played hardball in his life might have some idea about how to beat the Evil Empires.)

With all the Twin-killings tonight, may as well look at the middle-infield tandem of the moment,
Aaron Hill and John McDonald. Hill is improving defensively, but he hasn't really shown that he would give the Jays a reliable option at an occasional No. 2 hitter next season (an important consideration if Frank Catalanatto signs elsewhere). Before you point out that he went 3-for-4 tonight to bring his average up to. 296, take a breath and remember that a) One game proves nothing and b) Batting average doesn't matter.

In 389 at-bats this year, Hill has a .733 OPS (on-base plus slugging average), just up from what he had as a rookie last year in about the same number of plate appearances. The park effects were different at Rogers Centre in '05 (fewer runs were scored), and that if Hill repeats the late-season crash he had last year, his final OPS could drop. Overall, his OPS is eighth out of the 11 everyday second baseman in the American League. That would be good enough for a contending team in the Central or West divisions (in fact, two of the players trailing Hill are the Twins' Luis Castillo and the Tigers' Placido Polanco), but the bar is set higher in the AL East.

Keep in mind, though, that Hill won't even turn 25 until spring training next season.

As for McDonald, he comes by the good-field, no-hit label honestly. It's enjoyable to watch him play shortstop, but to borrow a good line Bill James once had, he couldn't hit a right-hander if one lay down in front of him (508 OPS). At the end of the day, he is a 31-year-old utilityman who has worked his ass off to have a major-league career, but at the end of the day there's no denying that no one's ever had enough faith to give him even 300 at-bats in a season.

In other words, don't go expecting McDonald to be the regular in 2007, although it would be good to keep him around so he can play twice a week. The Jays, as they seemingly have for the entire Ricciardi era, still need an answer at shortstop.

That's all for now. Send your thoughts to neatesager@yahoo.ca.

No comments: