RED SOX AREN'T RUNNING AWAY WITH THIS... NOT ON YOUR LIFE

First things first, with Evil Empire 1-A having now opened a five-game lead over the Jays, not to mention a 2½-game cushion on Evil Empire 1, it's worth noting each team's expected W-L records. (Based on each team's run differential.)

Evil Empire 1 44-30... actual record: 43-31.
Evil Empire 1-A 41-32... actual record: 45-28
Blue Jays 41-34... actual record: 41-34.

In other words, the Jays have won exactly as many games as it should have. Evil Empire 1-A (known to some of you as the Boston Red Sox) are four games better than its run differential suggests. Oh, and as noted a week ago, Boston's under .500 against teams with a winning record, while it's 30-11 against the sub-.500 clubs, including that current winning streak built on the backs of those poor Washington Nationals and Philadelphia Phillies.

The feeling here is this is the Evil Empire's division to lose (touch wood), since they're eventually going to get all their regulars back and it's only a matter of time until Herr Steinbrenner blows the dust of his wallet. My baseball people love Jacque Jones' bat. They kept saying, "Jacque Jones, Jacque Jones."

None of which means that isn't put up or shut up time for the Jays, even given the desultory state of the starting pitchers. Here's the outlook for the series with the Nats:

Tonight, 7:07 p.m. A.J. Burnett (0-1, 5.06, 1.25 WHIP) vs. Ramon Ortíz (5-5, 5.27, 1.54 WHIP). Ortíz's lefty-righty splits -- and the .312 opponents' average on the road -- suggest it might be a big night for Messrs. Catalanotto and Overbay. Burnett threw without any twinge of pain in Atlanta.
Wednesday, 7:07 p.m. Theodore Lilly (7-7, 4.15, 1.51 WHIP )vs. Shawn Hill (1-2, 4.26, 1.42 WHIP). OK, this is the one in this series the Jays are OK to lose, since Hill, the Mississauga, Ont., native, has only one major-league game since beating the Jays in a 2004 game in San Juan with the Expos. Actually, once is enough. May the Jays light Shawn Hill up like Parliament Hill on Canada Day. Theodore Lilly has won two straight starts since Out of Left Field started addressing him by his proper Christian name.
Thursday, 7:07 p.m. Roy Halladay (9-2, 3.07, 1.05 WHIP) vs. John Patterson (1-1, 3.41, .88 WHIP). Runs will be at a premium. Patterson's only in his second start since coming off the disabled list; like Halladay, he throws a lot of ground balls.

That's all for now. Send your thoughts to neatesager@yahoo.ca.