Sunday, June 18, 2006

THOSE UNDERACHIEVING BLUE JAYS

As if you had Geoff Ogilvy in your U.S. Open poll. You liar. Why would you make up a lie like that? Like you could even get odds on Geoff friggin' Ogilvy.
  • Since the Blue Jays can't even beat the friggin' Florida Marlins -- as Montgomery Burns once said to his team of lawyers, "Hang your high-priced heads in shame!" -- it's worthwhile to see what how they are faring vs. teams with winning records vis-à-vis the sub-.500 clubs, since there is a perception the Jays play down to the level of the opposition. (The Twins are right at .500, so we'll put them in the winner's circle.)

    Just for fun, let's use the Yankees, the Red Sox, the AL Central-leading Tigers and last but not least, the wild card-leading White Sox for basis of comparision.

    Toronto: 17-14 (.548) vs. winners, 20-18 (.526) vs. losing teams. So the Jays do play slightly worse (-.022) against the losing teams than against stronger clubs . That miniscule percentage difference doesn't seem like much, but hold on.

    Evil Empire 1: 21-20 (.512) vs. 17-9 (.654) for a difference of of .142. For all the talk about the Jays' tough early-season schedule, it's worth noting the Yankees have played 12 fewer games against the cupcake teams.

    Evil Empire 1-A:
    15-17 (.469) vs. 24-11 (.686) for a difference of .217.

    Detroit: 19-16 (.543) vs. 27-8 (.771). A difference of .228. If you move Minnesota to the other side of the ledger, the percentage difference gets even more lopsided -- .309.

    Chicago: 23-9 (.719) vs. 21-16 (.568). The White Sox are .151 better against the clubs with winning records. If you put Minnesota on the other side, the difference shifts to .129.

    So in other words, yes, the Jays are failing to get the job done against sub-.500 clubs, although the big asterisk is that includes an 0-6 mark in interleague play against Colorado and Florida.

    It's unclear what, if anything, this exercise proves, since baseball is a random game -- you win a third of time in spite of yourself -- and there's no accounting for the ups and downs in a team's fortunes. The Rockies were above .500 when the Jays came in for a visit last month; the Marlins are on a roll, having won eight straight.

    Still, it shows there might be something, after all, to the perception the Jays don't put away the weaker clubs.

    Interesting to see the gap in Chicago's record, though: maybe this speaks volumes about why Ozzie Guillen's crew had such an easy time in the post-season last October, and why they're probably going to overtake the Tigers.
  • Question for FIGJAM (alias Phil Mickelson) after his decision to hit the driver on the 18th on Winged Foot ended up costing him the U.S. Open. Did you learn nothing from Tin Cup? It's not like you were in the movie or anything. Always lay up.

    (Full disclosure: Didn't watch it -- Augusta and the British Open are always far more interesting majors, plus the 'rents were in town -- but the Deadspin commenters are all agog.)

That's all for now. Here's hoping nobody has a case of the Mondays. Send your thoughts to neatesager@yahoo.ca.

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