KAZMIR FOR THE CY YOUNG? FUN WITH WIN SHARES

As you may have noticed, yours truly is a closet Seamhead, or stat geek. Don't worry, like most of my brethren, I appreciate baseball for the simple joys. The myth about stat geeks, promulgated by curmudgeonly sportswriters, not to name any names -- cough.... Richard Griffin, Toronto Star -- is that the seamheads can't see the forest for the frees and are unable to appreciate the beauty in a well-turned double play or a beautifully placed bunt.

Bollocks. Trouble is, what the local play-by-play guys and newspaper columnists "just know" to be true has been shown, time and again, to be hogwash. The All-Star Game voting has begun and you likely won't hear the names of Carl Crawford, Curtis Granderson and Jose Lopez mentioned as potential starters, but the latest Win Shares ratings produced by Dave Studeman of The Hardball Times show that they should be at the forefront of the debate. So should the Jays' Alex Rios, who's not even on the ballot.

And believe it or not, but as of this writing, the deserving early-season front-runner for one of baseball's major awards plays for the freaking Devil Rays.

There hasn't been any "Scott Kazmir for the Cy Young" buzz yet, but there should be. The 22-year-old lefty far and away is the best pitcher in the AL thus far. When it comes to ranking pitchers, Hardball Times prefers to uses WSAB (Win Shares Above Bench), "in which each player's total Win Shares are compared to the Win Shares an average bench player would have received, given that player's time at bat, on the mound or in the field."

Kazmir has earned 9 WSAB, well ahead of the White Sox tandem of Mark Buehrle and Jose Contreras (who each have 6). What's Kazmir done? He's 7-2 on a team that's six games below .500 and is second in ERA in the American League (behind Contreras) while averaging more than a strikeout per inning.

It's probably next-to-impossible for a second-year pitcher on a team that most people snicker at to win a major award, but we're rooting for Kazmir. Just as long as the Blue Jays can miss his spot in the rotation from here on in.

Then there's the other awards. Remember the debate surrounding David Ortiz last season over whether a designated hitter should be MVP? Well, Chicago's Jim Thome has an AL-best 12.0 Win Shares, so get ready for that debate to be renewed as the season goes along. Something else Thome will have working against him is that he joined a team that was already the World Series champion, so there's no perception that he's carrying his team, as there was with Big Papi last season.

The second-best position player (if you believe DH counts as a position) in the AL is someone you've probably never heard of -- Jose Lopez, Seattle's second baseman. Lopez has good "counting stats," ( he leads all AL second baseman in hits and RBI), has been hitting above .400 with runners in scoring position, and is good defensively.

Of course, whether or not a little-known player on a sub-.500 Mariners team can get selected for the All-Star Game, let alone voted in by the fans, is anyone's guess.

(Who's the best-fielding second baseman in the AL? Aaron Hill. Naturally, my Blue Jays are thinking of making Hill switch to shortstop. Go figure.)

Similarly, if people look at the Tigers' surprising (i.e., schedule-generated) success, they're likely to point to their pitching, Chris Shelton's hitting, or the veterans, Ivan Rodriguez and Magglio Ordonez. Who knew that centre-fielder Curtis Granderson leads the Tigers with 8.8 Win Shares, third-best among AL outfielders? Granderson is a decent offensive player (.276, 845 OPS) and Win Shares also sees him as the second-best outfielder in the AL behind Chicago's Brian Anderson (who like Aaron Hill, has been something less than zero at the plate.)

Granted, you don't need Win Shares to know that the Diamondbacks' Brandon Webb (7-0, 2.44 ERA) has been the best pitcher in the National League, or that when it comes to the NL MVP, it's Albert Pujols by a couple of country miles.

But it does illustrate the extent to which Pujols is kicking ass and hiring an assistant to take down the names. A legit MVP candidate usually earns 35 to 40 Win Shares over a full season. As NL MVP last year, Pujols earned 38 and Alex Rodriguez earned 37 to cop American League honours.

The St. Louis slugger's 17 Win Shares are not only a full five more than the next-best player in either league, but it has him on pace to match the "record" of 59 Win Shares that Honus Wagner had back in 1908.

In a word, damn.

So to sum up, if we were picking the American and National league all-star teams today based on Win Shares, here's your starters;

AMERICAN LEAGUE
C Ramon Hernandez, Baltimore
1B Jason Giambi, N.Y. Yankees
2B Jose Lopez, Seattle
3B Eric Chavez, Oakland
SS Derek Jeter, N.Y. Yankees
OF Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay
OF Manny Ramirez, Boston
OF Curtis Granderson, Detroit
DH Jim Thome, Chicago
SP Scott Kazmir, Tampa Bay
RP Jonathan Papelbon, Boston

So leaving aside Thome and the pitchers, how many of these players will actually be voted in by the fans? ManRam and the two Yankees are fairly safe bets. Beyond that, I wouldn't bet on it. By the way, Alex Rios is the fourth-best AL outfielder -- not bad for someone who isn't even on the All-Star ballot.

NATIONAL LEAGUE
C Johnny Estrada, Arizona
1B Albert Pujols, St. Louis
2B Chase Utley, Philadelphia
3B Morgan Ensberg, Houston
SS Felipe Lopez, Cincinnati
OF Bobby Abreu, Philadelphia
OF Brian Giles, San Diego
OF Carlos Beltran, N.Y. Mets
SP Brandon Webb, Arizona
RP Brian Fuentes, Colorado.