Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Zen Dayley...

From the department of god does not throw dice, the Sports Illustrated swimsuit issue and Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projections come out within the same 24-hour span. They're both manna to nerdlingers everywhere.

The Beep's forecast for the Jays is an 81-81 record — not bad, but not good, and that presumes a full season of the services of right-handed pitcher Harry Leroy Halladay. The trade Doc speculation, since he is in the penultimate season of his contract, should be revving up sooner rather than later.

The Coles Notes on the PECOTA projections: The Jays are projected to be an also-ran in a division with the Red Sox (98-64), Yankees (97-65) and Tampa Bay Rays (92-70). Meantime, the Cleveland Indians, who are pegged to win the AL Central with 84 victories. It's a familar refrain by now, but it bears repeating, quote The Tao: "Our kingdom for a balanced schedule."

The Oakland Athletics (AL West champion) and Atlanta Braves (NL wild card) are the biggest surprise playoff entrants. Each of those teams, especially the A's, shed a lot of payroll in 2007-08 to get ready for this season.

This, that and the other:


Torgen said...

Their projections also predict 90 innings of suck from Bullington and Clement, John McDonald getting 40% of the playing time at short, and no benefit from our defense. Oh, and somehow they get a .500 record from a +38 run differential, which is insane.

Torgen said...

For comparison's sake, they're predicting 84 wins from the +5 Indians, 84 from the +19 Dodgers, 83 from the +14 Brewers, and 82 from the +1 A's.

Anonymous said...

All different divisions though. Haven't read it, but I imagine they figure much of the +38 will be beating up on the other divisions and then losing close games in their own. They're gonna basically be lousy, someone once said the "definition of insanity is doing the same things and expecting a different outcome", and running the same mediocre lineup out there with less pitching is a recipe for lousy.