SUPER BOWL PREVIEW, IN 30 MINUTES OR LESS

By now you're probably sick of hearing about the Super Bowl and just want the game over with without Global screwing up the TV feed so they can jam in more ads, but the form calls for some sort of preview.

With the Indianapolis Colts a seven-point favourite and the choice of 7 out of 7 Sports Illustrated experts, it seems only logical to look for parallels with the last two big Super Bowl upsets of the past decade: The 11 1/2-point underdog Denver Broncos beating the Green Bay Packers in January 1998 and 14-point underdog Nouvelle-Angleterre Patriotes edging the St. Louis Rams four years later. What did those teams do, and can the Chicago Bears pull it off?

Account for the run-stuffing safety.

In '98, Green Bay had a safety, LeRoy Butler, who thrived on blowing up running plays that were otherwise well blocked. Indy safety Bob Sanders has performed similarly, helping the Colts limit opponents to 73 yards per game on the ground in the playoffs.

Denver tweaked its blocking schemes, assigning a tackle to get a hat on Butler and leaving the end and outside linebacker to tight end Shannon Sharpe and flanker 'Easy' Ed McCaffrey. It worked -- Terrell Davis rushed for 157 yards and three touchdowns.

Watch to see whom Bears right tackle Fred Miller picks up on running plays early in the game, and where Sanders is around the pile. Can the Bears do this? Yes.

Tucker out the defence.

Not to be cruel, but the best Packers D-linemen in '98 were overweight Gilbert Brown and the late Reggie White, who was 36. The Colts D-line appears to have no such stamina issues. Their undersized ends, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, are 26 and 25, and nosetackle Booger McFarland shouldn't have any problems -- up until this year his entire career had spent playing in the southeastern heat and humidity, and it's actually supposed to be unseasonably cool (high 60s) in Miami tomorrow.

If McFarland can't be blocked one-on-one by Bears centre Olin Kreutz, it will affect Chicago's running game since they like to free up right tackle Fred Miller to block at the second level. That affects their ability to keep from having to rely on Rex Grossman to convert third-and-longs. Can the Bears do this? Outlook not so good.

Turnovers, turnovers, turnovers

In '98, the Broncos were plus-1 in turnovers, scored 10 points off takeaways and won while being outgained 350 yards to 302. In '02, Nouvelle-Angleterre was plus-3, scoring 17 points off takeaways and won while being outgained 427-267.

Before you say, "Well, don't the Bears excel at taking the ball away and scoring defensive and special teams touchdowns?", remember who were the quarterbacks who ended up on the wrong side of history: Brett Favre and Kurt Warner. Great passers, but both prone to hanging on to the ball too long and getting sloppy.

No one's ever accused Peyton Manning of that, and while the Bears did have 46 sacks on the year, Indy's offensive line led by Jeff Saturday gave up only 20 sacks. As well, the Colts have veteran receivers such as Dallas Clark and Marvin Harrison who can play the "hot read" game, something the young New Orleans receivers couldn't do in the NFC title game on Dec. 21. Can the Bears do this? There's a possibility.

No big pass plays.

Both those Denver and Nouvelle-Angleterre teams did not give up a run over 20 yards or a pass play for more than 30. Matching this will be tough for Chicago, since the Colts have the great tight end trio to occupy the linebackers and safeties, and two veteran receivers on the outside in Harrison and Reggie Wayne. Taking away the long-yardage play can throw a team off -- the offence gets impatient, and the defence can get flustered since it's used to playing with a lead. Can the Bears do this? Yes.

Have low expectations in the passing game -- just don't have any huge blunders.

John Elway threw for just 123 yards in '98 and Tom Brady had only a buck forty-five in 2002 (he had less than 100 before leading a game-winning drive). The bar is set pretty low for Grossman, then.Can the Bears do this? Yes, but it's a minor element.

Hey, you forgot special teams.

It wasn't a big determining factor for either Denver or Nouvelle-Angleterre, but both had a better net punting average and kickoff-return average in their wins. The Bears do have a big-time return specialist in Devin Hester, but there's never been a punt returned for a score in a Super Bowl.

Not sure if this means anything, but Bears punter Brad Maynard, dealing with those winds off Lake Michigan, had a 37.6-yard net average in the regular season -- a full three yards higher than Colts counterpart Hunter Smith, who plays his home games indoors. When Smith's punts were returned, opponents had a healthy 13.1-yard average, taking one back for a touchdown. Can the Bears do this? Yes, but it's not a lot to go on.

Are the Colts a little overrated?

Yes, they are. Denver's win in '98 started a 7-2 run for the AFC, and for games like a Super Bowl or BCS championship game, the team with the big-name offensive stars (think the Reggie Bush-Matt Leinart USC Trojans before they were beaten by Texas in early 2006) will always be favoured. All the better to lure in the casual fans (and separate some of them from their money).

This is all little-picture stuff. In the big picture, the Colts have the better quarterback in Manning, and he doesn't have the chinks in his armour that Favre and Warner obviously had. The point here is that don't be surprised if the Bears pull this off, especially with rain and gusting winds in the weather forecast. Prediction: Colts 30, Bears 27.