MLB PLAYOFFS: WHO'S WORLD SERIOUS?

Let's see: Mets, Tigers, Cardinals and A's contending for the World Series, the Yankees are in disarray... hey, it sounds like the 1980s!

Does that mean the Toronto Blue Jays will go back to the old powder blue pajama top jerseys and start winning like they did in the '80s and '90s? Granted, the way the last few years have gone for the Jays, most fans would settle just for seeing the powder blues again.

CARDS-METS

Save for the blog The Cub Reporter, you can't find anyone who's taking the St. Louis Cardinals over the New York Mets in the National League.

So put yours truly down for a What the Hell pick: Cardinals in 6. No one will remember either way in two weeks' time, so might as well go on a limb and throw the old reputation after that 15-20% chance that St. Louis can knock off the Mets.

Yes, the Cardinals won only 83 games, and yes, they almost blew an 8 1/2-game lead in the final three weeks. Yes, they're starting Jeff Weaver in Game 1 tomorrow night. It would pain me to see ex-Jay Carlos Delgado, whose borderline Hall of Fame credentials would get a big boost from a World Series ring, miss out.

The Mets have a better lineup and a deeper bench, although the back end of their rotation is kind of dodgy. By all logic, they should win, and teams that win only 83 games shouldn't be going to the World Series. Still, if Albert Pujols and one other Cardinals hitter, say Juan Encarnacion, get hot, and if Cards catcher Yadier Molina nullifies base-stealer supreme Jose Reyes, and the Cardinals steal one of the first two games in New York, then by all means this will be a series. Both teams will be into their third and fourth starters when they go to St. Louis.

If it sounds a little flimsy to you, that's because it is. Regardless, put the mid-market Cards in the Series (Pujols will be series MVP) against the A's, a team that averages less than 25,000 fans, and watch Fox executives try to spin-doctor when they get record-low ratings. Hey, serves 'em right for overhyping the New York teams.

TIGERS-A'S

You could argue that the Tigers might be more emotionally spent after vanquishing the Yankees, and that it might be hard to get up for Oakland, now that everyone's on the Detroit bandwagon and expecting them to win.

Associate Blogger Neil Acharya figures the Tigers-A's ALCS will be the best so far this decade, save for the Evil Empires' mini-series back in '03 and '04.

Without going into reams of eye-glazing statistical analysis, yours truly likes the Oakland A's to win in seven games. "Head" picks, in the long run, usually win out over "heart" picks, and while the Tigers are the feel-good story of this baseball year, there's serious questions about the consistency of their starting pitching and their defence. Their lineup, aside from shortstop Carlos Guillen, seems filled with a bunch of guys who can hit a mistake 420 feet, then look awful chasing curveballs the next time through the order. Their walk-to-strikeout ratio was by far the worst in the AL, as they were 13th in both categories.

The A's probably fly under a lot of people's radar screens. They don't have any superstar position players, plus the Moneyball aura has died down. However, they are a fairly patient bunch (.340 team on-base average, 11 points higher than Detroit's) and their pitching staff is at least equal to that of the Tigers.

Granted, the A's have a middle infield of Marco Scutaro and D'Angelo Jimenez, and only Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi would try to pass that off as a championship-calibre double-play combination. Also, if they make the Series, their regular outfield of Jay Payton, Mark Kotsay and Milton Bradley will arguably the weakest for a Series team since the 2000 Mets, who coincidentally, also had Payton starting.

Still, the A's pitching and plate discipline make them too tempting to pass up. Neil is taking the Tigers, with Craig Monroe as MVP; I'll take the A's and Eric Chavez, who's seeking redemption after an injury-riddled regular season, to cop MVP honours.

Admittedly, Barry Zito or Nick Swisher would be safer MVP picks for an A's backer.

Best Deadspin comment on the baseball's final four:

"Yankees in four. What? They're not in the ALCS? ... umm ... Red Sox in five. Huh? The Blue Jays finished ahead of them?

"Jesus, what kind of ALCS is this?"

Anyway... here's some predictions from various experts:

American League
Neil Acharya, Associate Blogger: Tigers in 7 (MVP: Craig Monroe)
Baseball Musings: Gives the Tigers a 60% chance
Batter's Box: A's in 6 (chosen by 33% of poll respondents)
Jeff Blair, Globe and Mail: A's in 7
The Cub Reporter: A's in 7
Cool Standings: Tigers in 6
Scott Carson, Sportsnet.ca: Tigers in 7
Deadspin: Tigers in 7
John Donovan, SI.com: A's in 6
Eric Mack, CBS Sportsline: A's in 6
Charlie McCarthy, CBS Sportsline: A's in 6
Scott Miller, CBS Sportsline: Tigers in 6
Larry Millson, Globe and Mail: Tigers in 7
Adriane Rosen, CBS Sportsline: A's in 6
Toronto Star: Tigers in 6

National League
Neil Acharya, Associate Blogger: Mets in 7 (MVP: Carlos Delgado)
Baseball Musings: Gives the Mets a 70% chance
Batter's Box: Mets in 5 (chosen by 41% of poll respondents)
Jeff Blair, Globe and Mail: Mets in 5
The Cub Reporter: Cards in 7
Cool Standings: Mets in 6
Scott Carson, Sportsnet.ca: Mets in 5
Eric Mack, CBS Sportsline: Mets in 7
Charlie McCarthy, CBS Sportsline: Mets in 6
Scott Miller, CBS Sportsline: Mets in 5
Larry Millson, Globe and Mail: Mets in 6
Adriane Rosen, CBS Sportsline: Mets in 6
Toronto Star: Mets in 5

Back with more later. Send your thoughts to neatesager@yahoo.ca.