HISTORY MIGHT NOT FAVOUR EDMONTON

Take it, to the limit, one more time.

Now it's the Carolina Hurricanes who are still dead.

Thatt's probably all you're hear about over the next news cycle leading up to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup final, which the Oilers forced last night with a 4-0 victory that wasn't nearly as close as the score indicated. Even Erik Cole's surprise return, as Damien Cox has noted in today's Toronto Star, did nothing to fire up Carolina, which will limp home for the deciding game knowing, that in a three-period stretch across the two potential Stanley Cup-clinching games, it mustered all of nine shots against Jussi Markkanen.

Nine shots. When one goal might have wrapped up the Cup.

Fernando Pisani's OT winner in Game 5 might be analogous, as alluded to the other night, the start of the Great Oiler Comeback. Instead of being akin to the Albert Pujols home run off Houston's Brad Lidge in last year's National League playoffs -- a footnote in history -- it might be like the Steve Smith game 20 years ago, or the Ottawa Senators blowing two leads in the final two minutes of regulation in Game 1 against the Sabres. History might show although the game or series continued, there was just no rallying back, whatever the reason.

There's still no regret or boy-do-I-look-dumb-now here for writing after Game 1 -- when the Oilers lost a three-goal lead, their No. 1 goalie in Dwayne Roloson, and the game on an amateurish giveway -- that they had turned from vital to vapour. They had. However, the beauty of playoff hockey is that a team can look gadawful one night and be lights-out 48 hours later.

However, there are some reasons -- and yes, this is particially motivated by my Carolina in 7 pick -- why this isn't a fait accompli for Edmonton, regardless of how somnabulant Carolina was last night.

• Monday's contest will mark the fourth time in the past five finals that it has gone seven games, but it's only the seventh time since the expansion era began in 1967-68. How many of those series have involved a team coming back from a 3-1 deficit to force a deciding game? Two -- and the 1987 Philadelphia Flyers and '94 Vancouver Canucks both lost Game 7 on the road. (Interestingly, in both cases, Oilers coach Craig MacTavish was on the opposing team. Maybe that will make a difference here.)
  
• The home team has won the past five of those seven-game showdowns. No road team has done it since the 1971 Canadiens against Chicago.
  
• As far as momentum generated from winning Game 6 is concerned, it's a 3-3 split. The '71 Habs, '01 Avalanche and '04 Lightning all did it. As noted, only one of those teams had to play the deciding game on the road.
  
• Worth noting: both those Avs and Lightning team had a player from Simcoe, Ont., the hometown of Dwayne Roloson -- Rob Blake and Jassen Cullimore, respectively. Could be some weird Norfolk County juju happening, although the '71 Habs came back to win at the expense of the Blackhawks and the great Chico Maki, who lives in the Simcoe area.

Granted, that's all circumstantial, and the Oilers have bucked the odds all along. They were the first No. 8 seed to reach the final in the 12-year history of the current playoff format, and they've now erased three two-game leads this spring, as well as recovering from what initially seemed the irreparable loss of Roloson in the series opener.

You can't completely rule out Carolina winning though. You could interpret the save Cam Ward made on Radek Dvorak when it was 2-0 in the third and the 'Canes, at least superficially, were still in the hunt as proof that Carolina isn't through yet. Ward stealing a win is probably the most plausible scenario for a Carolina victory.

Edmonton's gone from having a 5-10% chance of winning of the series coming into Game 5 last Wednesday to probably having somewhere between a 70/30 to 80/20 shot tomorrow.

The only prediction here is that the Conn Smythe will go to an Alberta boy -- the Edmonton-born and bred Pisani, or Sherwood Park's Ward. As promised, there'll be a live blog updated during the commercial breaks.

OTHER BUSINESS

• Ricky Williams looked pretty strong in his CFL debut yesterday, gaining 89 of his 97 yards in the second half as the Argos beat Hamilton 27-17. As noted here earlier, the Argos haven't had much of a running game in recent seasons, but now that they're down to their No. 2 quarterback -- starter Damon Allen was lost for 4-to-6 weeks with a broken finger and ex-Viking Spergon Wynn has stepped in -- Williams' role will increase.
  
  Toronto raised Hamilton's ire at the end of the game, calling Williams' number on the final two plays rather than kneeling down with the ball on the Ticats 5-yard line after a long interception return. Hamilton wasn't unhappy, and the initial reaction here was that taking a knee would have been far classier. On second thought, the game is 60 minutes long and Hamilton was beaten, so it had no right to complain. Besides, if the Argos were really going to rub it in, they wouldn't have called something so obvious as a straight handoff -- maybe a play-action pass or a bootleg. Now that would have been a dick move on their part.
• Deadspin joked yesterday about how the U.S. could not lose to Canada in rugby and to Italy in soccer on the same day. Well, Canada beat the U.S. in rugby, winning 33-18 in the consolation game of the Churchill Cup. Yours truly knows sweet F.A. about rugby -- except what a "midnight game" entails when you go to a social tournament. The U.S. coach, Peter Thorburn, expects "a bloody hard match" when the teams hook up again in Ottawa with a spot in the 2007 World Cup on the line. Bloody hard match? I'm thinking he's not American by birth.
• Trying to focus on the positives with the Blue Jays, who have dropped two to the Florida Marlins. (Say what you want about the Detroit Tigers, but at least they beat the teams they're supposed to beat). Well, here's a positive: A.J. Burnett had nine strikeouts in his Double A rehab start. That's what they gave him $55 million U.S. for.

Happy Father's Day. Someday, yours truly hopes to be a father, perhaps after Rachel and I -- Rachel McAdams or Rachael Leigh Cook, either would do -- meet and fall in love. We will ... get married on top of a mountain, and there's going to be flutes playing and trombones and flowers and garlands of fresh herbs. And we will dance till the sun rises. And then our children will form a family band. And we will tour the countryside and you won't be invited.

Sorry, that must be the sleep deprivation talking. That's all for now, mercifully. Send your thoughts to neatesager@yahoo.ca.