IT'S THE FINAL COUNTDOWN!

Know how I know you're gay? You illustrated your Stanley Cup final preview with a group picture of Europe.

There's a few myths to dispose of before you can get down to talking about this unlikeliest of Stanley Cup matchups since, well, two years ago.

Myth No. 1 -- Having a final between Edmonton (smallest Canadian market) and Carolina (no market) proves the lockout was worth it.

Not exactly -- remember the '04 final matched the Oilers' provincial rival, Calgary, against another Sun Belt team, Tampa Bay? A better question that doesn't push Gary Bettman and his agenda is: will this final help this season redeem the eight, nine years of drearly slogfests that preceded it? That's a tall order.

Myth No. 2 -- The Oilers will benefit from having eight days off.

James Mirtle made an interesting point: In the Western final, the Oilers became the eighth team this spring to win a playoff series in less than five games. All but one of the other seven lost in the next round. Teams can fall behind and self-doubt can start creeping through the ranks. It bears noting here that the Oilers rallied after losing the first two games in San Jose in the Western semifinal, and that they bounced back after a double-overtime loss in the opener of the Detroit series.

Let's not even get into that the series should have started on Saturday, but in the Wonderful World of Bettman, the fans in Canada have to wait so the league can appease an ever-dwindling U.S. TV audience that doesn't even record a high enough Neilson rating wouldn't even fail a Breathalyzer test.

Myth No. 3 -- If it took Carolina seven games to beat the Sabres when they were down to two regulars on defence by the end of the series, then this should be a piece of cake for Edmonton.

Here's a paragraph from the novel I'm reading right now, The Brontë Project by Jennifer Vandever:

Dell shook his head. "I find your logic reductive," he said, invoking the quintessential smack-down of any scholarly debate.

That's what this tack is. To build on Myth No. 2, the last series just doesn't matter.

Myth No. 4 -- Carolina is suspect on the back end.

There's no Chris Pronger, sure, but the Hurricanes have given up 2.44 goals per game in the post-season to Edmonton's 2.47.

If the Oilers do lose the series, it will probably be because their defensive play wasn't good enough. Like the Sabres, they count on blocking a lot of shots and getting good enough goaltending to win most nights. Carolina's depth up front means each letdown is that much more likely to become a goal. Especially when Jaroslav (Don't Call Me Sissy) Spacek is on the ice. Spacek leads the league in giveaways during the playoffs. Pronger's second, but that has something to do with him being on the ice for more than half the game.

Myth No. 5 -- Carolina has no answer for Chris Pronger.

No one answer, that's to be sure. The difference is that Carolina has three lines that can score, and Pronger can't play the entire game. Well, he probably could, but Craig MacTavish and Kevin Lowe have a desire not to have Pronger's agent try to reroute their respective windpipes. Incidentally, if you had never seen Pronger play before the Olympics, the fact he has only 18 PIM in 17 playoffs games should make your head explode.

One caveat: Eric Staal has been AWOL since Game 5 of the Eastern final and looks like he have emptied his tank. The matchup between two boys from northwestern Ontario -- Pronger from Dryden and Staal from Thunder Bay -- could look like a kid toying with his younger brother on the pond. However, Carolina has plenty of scoring.

Myth No. 6 -- There's a big disparity on special teams.

Carolina's power play has converted 25.9% of its opportunities in the playoffs, to Edmonton's 19.8.

On the PK, the Oilers are at 88.6% to the 'Canes' 83.7. There's not really much to choose from here, especially considering the small sample sizes.

Myth No. 7 -- The "rebirth" of Dwayne Roloson.

Yours truly is familiar with Roloson's career arc, having spent some time working at the small daily in his hometown of Simcoe, Ont. He's playing for a big-time free-agent deal, but the shopworn sportswriter words like "obscure" and "journeyman" really don't apply. No, Roloson is playing like he did in '02-03 and '03-04 with the Wild -- and likely how he could have played for the past decade if he had more opportunities earlier in his career.

Now that we have that out of the way . . .

Not to oversimplify, but it just keeps coming back to Carolina's depth up front against the Oilers' back end, which relies heavily on just four d-men (Pronger, Jason Smith, Spacek and Steve Staios, with Marc-Andre Bergeron as the fifth man). Also, if Edmonton's effort dictate the pace leads to a lot of penalties, well, the Hurricanes have Staal leading that vaunted power play.

One hidden factor: Rod Brind'Amour on faceoffs. If the Oilers struggle on the draws, that also hinders their potential to control the flow of the game.

Another that I'm putting in just for shits and grins: The players on the winning team get to take the Stanley Cup home for a couple days. Hurricanes defenceman Aaron Ward is from Gloucester, an Ottawa suburb. How else are people in the nation's capital ever going to see the Stanley Cup come to Ottawa?

So how it's going to go down? The early, gut-reaction pick here was Carolina in 7, with Roloson turning in a valiant performance that would end up with him winning the Conn Smythe Trophy. (Sportswriters can be sucked in by sentiment; really, Pronger is probably more valuable to Edmonton.)

First, the experts get their say:

Kevin Allen, USA Today: Edmonton in 6.
Greg Cimilluca, CBS Sportsline: Carolina in 6.
Damien Cox, Toronto Star: Edmonton in 6.
Dennis Dodd, CBS Sportsline: Carolina in 7.
Scott Burnside, ESPN.com: Carolina in 6.
Wes Goldstein, CBS Sportsline: Edmonton in 5.
Pierre LeBrun, The Canadian Press: Edmonton in 6.
Sean McCormick, Rogers Sportsnet: Edmonton in 6.
James Mirtle: Edmonton in 5.
Al Strachan, Toronto Sun: Edmonton in 5. (Note: Was also bang on with this pick in the conference final.)
Scott Wraight, SI.com: Edmonton in 7.
Chris Young, Toronto Star: Carolina in 6.

The choice here: So the majority opinion is amassing behind the Oilers, so it would seem. We'll stick with our gut and stay on the side of the minority, but just out of general principle.

Carolina in 7, although that's not necessarily what I want to see.

Send your thoughts to neatesager@yahoo.ca.