Tuesday, April 25, 2006

DON'T CALL IT A COMEBACK; THE BIGGEST GAME IN SENATORS HISTORY AND A.J.'S ELBOW

There's something you almost never saw in the "old NHL" -- a team coming back from a three-goal deficit and taking the lead, only to lose in overtime. Thank god for the new rules, even if that just involved enforcing rules that were actually there all along.

The No. 2 seeds, Carolina and Dallas, each did that last night against Montreal and Colorado respectively, and both went home staring down the barrel of a 2-0 deficit with their next two games on the road.

Yes, this is shaping up as a potentially wacky playoff spring, with higher seeds falling like extras in a Cecil DeMille Bible epic. It's fun to think of how ridiculous this might look in six weeks, when fans are resigning themselves to a familiarity-breed-contempt final between Detroit and New Jersey, or something similar.

All four of the low seeds in the West are either tied or leading their series. The East has been more predictable: No. 2 Carolina (man, it sounds like we're talking about the NCAA basketball tournament) is down 2-0 to Les Canadiens, while the No. 1 Senators are tied with the Tampa Bay Lightning entering Game 3 tonight at the St. Pete Times Forum.

(Speaking of the Habs, check out this French-language Best Buy commercial that gives the Leafs a good, swift kick while they're down. Gee, I can't imagine why people think Montreal fans are arrogant. Nope, I can't. Eric McErlain, David Singer and Chris Young were already the first ones to this.)

Now, about the Senators. It's only Game 3 of a first-round series, but tonight is arguably -- forget the preamble, it is -- the most important game in the team's history. That sounds strange to say about a team that took New Jersey to a seventh game in the Eastern Conference final in 2003, but at that time, there was no now-or-never pressure. The Senators were still young, and would play and win again (well, not exactly: the following year, they gave away yet another series against the team that must not be mentioned).

Next year will be too late for the Senators, since they can't keep both of their bedrock defencemen, free agents-to-be Zdeno Chara and Wade Redden. This is the last kick at the cat for this crew to lose its dubious reputation for losing when it matters most.

This is the ninth straight season the Senators have made the playoffs. Only a handful of teams can make that claim, but Ottawa has the worst playoff track record among them:

Playoff series wins, 1997-to date (among teams that have made the playoffs each season)

Detroit: 15
Colorado: 13
New Jersey: 12
Philadelphia: 8
Ottawa: 4

Even some teams that haven't made it every year can beat that:

Dallas: 8
Buffalo: 7
Unnamed team from southern Ontario: 6
St. Louis: 5
Tampa Bay: 5

(Anaheim, Pittsburgh and San Jose have each won four playoff series since '97.)

Now, Ottawa is a small-market Canadian team, and even their paltry playoff performance is a lot more than the other Canadian franchises have managed.

The Vancouver Bertuzzi Apologists, for instance, have won one -- one! -- playoff series since '97. There's a word for that: pathetic.

All of this is little comfort to Senators fans. They are into the Uncanny Valley now, and it's no longer about how little it takes to make them happy.

Not to go all Hunter S. Thompson, but Panic will set in if the Senators lose again tonight, among the fans if not the Players. That's why they need to win tonight, and at least come back through Customs with the series tied 2-2 and home-ice advantage restored.

Incidentally, stat of the day: Radek Bonk, the much-maligned ex-Sen, has two goals so far in the playoffs for the Habs -- two more than Ottawa scoring stars Daniel Alfredsson and Dany Heatley put together.

Playoff scoring: Through the first four nights of the playoffs (16 games), there has been an average of 5.96 goals per game. (The regular-season average was 6.05.)

HANG IN THERE: The best news the Blue Jays have had this week is that A.J. Burnett's elbow isn't hurt that badly, although the $55 million right-hander is on the disabled list yet again.

Nothing his going quite according to plan -- the pitching's been inconsistent, Lyle Overbay hasn't been the King of Doublin' and for chrissakes, can anyone hit a two-out single when it's needed?

Still, I believe: the Jays are 9-8 despite a brutal early-season schedule (gotta play 'em all eventually, might as well get them out of the way).

The best-case scenario is for the Jays to win tonight behind Gustavo (I need great run support) Chacin, drop the middle game against red-hot Canadian rookie Erik Bedard, and tee off against Kris Benson on Thursday. So it is written, so it shall be done.

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