Thursday, July 10, 2008

Adios, A.J., very well might have just got real (or not)

The latest is that the Phillies are hard after A.J. Burnett, dangling a couple of prospects.

The larger point, which friend of the blog Pete Toms made between innings during the Rapidz game last night (they won! they won!) is that we shouldn't downplay the possibility that the Jays might end up being stuck with Burnett for the rest of the season. They probably want to move him, since (a) it makes it look like Godcciardi is doing something and (b) the cynical observation is the front office very wells now that any minor-leaguers they can get now would likely have more value than two compensatory draft picks, since Rogers Communications is a bunch of El Cheapos when it comes to spending on quality prospects.

The Phillies' interest is a real wild card, since ol' Wolley Segap himself, Pat Gillick, has been known to go all in to land a pitcher for the stretch run. Remember Jeff Kent for David Cone in 1992?

Out of the prospects Jeff Blair mentioned, though, only one who's even mildly groin-grabblingly awesome: Lou Marson. He's a righty-hitting catcher, said to be the total package behind the plate, and while there's questions about whether he'll hit enough to be an everyday player, he's leading the Eastern League in on-base percentage. The downside is that his .447 OBP eclipses his .424 slugging percentage.

The big matzo ball hanging out there with centrefielder Greg Golson is that his walk-to-strikeout ratio in the minors over the past season and a half is 36-to-250 -- sub-Soriano plate discipline. He's supposed to be a burner -- hit, run, throw -- but the batting eye apparently leaves something to be desired.

Our handy-dandy Baseball Prospectus 2008 also says that right-handed starter Carlos Carrasco isn't anything special, even though he did reach Double-A last year at age 20.

Burnett to the Dodgers would be a wicked burn of sorts, since going from the 44-47 Jays to the 45-46 Dodgers would mean he's on a contender. Is anyone else tired of the unbalanced schledule and interleague play yet?

Blair: Phils mulling trade for Burnett (Globe on Baseball
Report: Phillies, Dodgers after Burnett (Roto World)


Tyler King said...

The problem with Marson is that the Jays already have a zillion (read: four) quality catchers of the future in Thigpen, Diaz, Arencibia, and Jeroloman.

sager said...

Yes, that's a real problem, getting a catcher who's got more upside than anyone in your system.

Marson, by most accounts, projects very well defensively and decently as a hitter. It's not like all four of those guys are going to become top-of-the-line starters; only Arencibia, to me at least, projects as a No. 1 catcher.

Tyler King said...

I dunno, Jeroloman was destroying the ball in spring training this year against major league pitchers.

It's just that if you want prospects, you should probably get them where you don't have much depth in your system. The problem isn't having a good catcher, the problem is having 5 major league caliber catchers and only being able to use 1 regularly.

Ryan S. said...

It makes sense to fill holes that we have, (and we do have many) but I actually think in this case it doesn't matter where they are. I want to see the Jays get the best available package for AJ, regardless of position. I know it's hard to judge projections and we can debate summaries and stats of players but I don't care what position they play. If they are going to be major leaguers who will contribute at the major league level, then I hope we can get it.

JP hasn't been a deadline dealer previously so I'm concerned. Not because AJ is definately leaving but that getting draft picks might not solve our problems. I'm still on record and will continue to believe that JP's draft record up until this point isn't what it needs to be. It's a hard thing to do and I'm sure some gems will pop up when he leaves within the next few years that would go against my argument but getting the picks isn't safe.

Everyone should be getting shopped at this point besides Doc. I would love to see some unexpected players get dealt as well... Fuck the public perception of "blowing up" a sell high if given the chance AND while you're not expecting to contend. We're not contending, so let's be sellers.

Also, I've knocked JP here for drafting but I must add what he is really good at doing is finding cheap talent elsewhere and getting value out of it. So I'm not worried that if certain players got dealt (like Downs, Stairs and I hate to say it but BJ), that we can find suitable replacements.

sager said...

His early drafts were spotty, but again, his hands are tied since Godfrey is a Selig lackey when it comes to not going 'over slot' for draft picks. No doubt there's a few agents who steer players away from Toronto.

Ryan S. said...

I agree but since we know that fact, then we're already at somewhat of a disadvantage when drafting. That's why I think it's safer to deal for the best deal.

Still pisses me off that they won't go over slot regardless of the reason. It's much more cost efficient than diving in free agency.