Wednesday, July 11, 2007

TOP 5: SOMETHING FOR US STAT NERDS

Baseball, of course, as the great Jay Pinkerton once said, is nothing if not a "snug-panted exercise in statistic memorization."

Here's a few league leaders those among us with way too much time on our hands might keep an eye on as the summer rolls along:

ERIK BEDARD
Swing and a miss
Readers in Bedard's Eastern Ontario hometown of Navan have probably figured this out already: The Orioles lefty's 149 strikeouts have him in good position to become the first Canadian to lead the league, let alone the majors, in strikeouts. Bedard has a 24-punchout lead over both National League leader Jake Peavy and his closest competitor in the AL, two-time Cy Young Award winner Johan Santana.

Who was the last Oriole to lead the league? Jim Palmer, right? How about Dave McNally? Try Bob Turley back in 1954, the franchise's second year in Baltimore.

Bedard (pictured) is averaging just less than eight strikeouts per start, so if he takes the hill 14 or 15 times over the O's remaining 75 games, the franchise record of 232 set by Hall of Famer Rube Waddell way back in 1908 will also fall. Fergie Jenkins' Canadian-player record of 274 is probably safe, but remember, Jenkins had to throw 313 innings that season.

ICHIRO SUZUKI
Mr. 3000-san
That inside-the-park home run in last night's all-star game doesn't count in the stats, but Ichiro is on pace to become the youngest man to reach 3,000 hits in a career if you combine his Japanese and North American stats. Ty Cobb was 34 when he reached the milestone in 1921. Ichiro, who's 84 hits away from 3,000, will still be 33 for a couple more weeks at the end of the regular season.

Should the numbers be combined? For a "counting stat" such as 3,000 hits, it's OK. In Ichiro's days in Japan, the schedule was 130 or 135 games, shorter than North America's 162-game slog. That offsets the higher level of competition in the American League. If Ichiro had played 162-game seasons in Japan, he could have had an extra 40 hits for each of the seven seasons he was an everyday player in his homeland, and then anointing him "Mr. 3000" would seem dubious.

CURTIS GRANDERSON
For three!
The Detroit Tigers centre-fielder already has 15 triples, which have led the American League in all but four of the past 20 seasons. He's not reaping the benefits of Comerica Park's vast outfield, since he's actually belted 10 of the 15 on the road.

There's no such thing as being "on pace" for a certain number of triples, since there's so many factors that go into hitting one. However, Granderson could become the first American Leaguer since Dale Mitchell 58 years ago to hit 20 triples while playing his home games on grass. (Mitchell hit 23 for the 1949 Cleveland Indians, but never hit more than 10 in any other season.)

HUNTER PENCE
Swing, swing
The Astros rookie centre-fielder enters the second half with a one-point lead (.342 to .341) over Colorado's Matt Holliday for the "traditional" batting title. Neither of the Natioanl League teams which began playing in 1962, Houston and the Nye Mets, have ever had a batting champion.

CHASE UTLEY & MAGGIO ORDONEZ
Kings of Doublin'
Both leagues' records for most two-baggers in a season have largely been unthreatened since the 1930s. Earl Webb, a journeyman outfielder with the Red Sox, set AL and major-league marks with 67 in 1931. Ordonez already has 35, which extrapolates to 65.9 over 162 games. In the National League, Joe Medwick's 71-year-old standard of 64 could be challenged by Utley, who already has 34 (which works out to 62.5 over the full 162).

There was a lot of hoopla late in the 2004 season when Ichiro broke the single-season hits record. Breaking the doubles record probably wouldn't generate the same buzz, though.

(UPDATE: Tom Verducci says it's not happenin'.)

That's all for now. Send your thoughts to neatesager@yahoo.ca.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Ichiro had 1,278 hits in Japan, and 1,501 hits in North America (as of July 29, 2007). That adds up to 2,779...which is more than 84 short of 3,000. I don't know where you got your stat reference from. Not a big deal though...'cause his total will reach 3,000 late next year barring a major injury or something weird.

sager said...

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/S/Ichiro-Suzuki.shtml

Here's where I got it from.... it says he had 1,434 in Japan. However, now that I look closer, a couple of time the league is listed as "West." In other words, those were minor league hits, and it adds up to 156 hits.... which would give him 1,278 in the Japanese majors. So you're right.