NL MVP: HOWARD VS. BELTRAN

It's Kool and the Gang that Philadelphia's big bopper Ryan Howard, in the minds of a few sports columnists, is about to become the first guy since Roger Maris to hit 60 home runs in a season while quote-unquote clean.

As of this writing, though, is he the National League's most valuable player? It says here he isn't -- to date, Mets centre-fielder Carlos Beltran is the choice here, despite the difference in their stats:

Howard: .316, 56 HR, 138 RBI, 1095 OPS
Beltran: .284, 39 HR, 113 RBI, 1007 OPS

So you would have to be a hopelessly obsessed Mets fan to pick Beltran, right? Hardly. (Mets fans would probably pick David Wright, anyways.) Howard has the advantage of better raw numbers in the sexy stats, so-called. Beltran's advantage is almost everything else.

Old-media sportswriters have this child-like fixation on RBI, but often fail to realize runs scored is more indicative of a player's value to his team. Coming into today, Beltran has a slim lead over Howard's teammate Chase Utley for the lead in that area (117-116), despite having played only 126 of the Mets' 141 games.

He's driven or scored 25.5% of the Mets' runs (191 of 749). Howard has driven in or scored 23.5 of the Phillies' runs (176 of 749).

That's just the raw data, before you account for park effects. Howard's home park in Philly, Citizens Bank Ballpark, is heavily skewed toward hitters, or at least it was in 2005, when the park effect was 108 for hitters, 107 for pitchers (100 is neutral; anything in the 90s favours pitchers). Shea Stadium is more neutral. In '05, its park effects were 99 for hitters and pitchers alike.

There's no reason to believe that's changed drastically this year: the Phillies have the NL's third-worst earned-run average while the Mets are second-best, a shade behind the Dodgers. Clearly, a lot more runs get scored at Citizens Bank Ballpark.

In fairness to Howard, he's hit exactly half his homers on the road, and also has a higher OPS away from Philadelphia. However, the park effect may explain why through last Monday, he was only seventh in the NL in Win Shares Above Bench. That can be interpreted to mean that Howard's stats are being inflated from being in the middle of a good lineup in a hitter's park, even though his production hasn't suffered away from home.

Bottom line: Beltran has accounted for a greater share of his team's offence and had a hand in more runs than Howard, despite playing half his games in a tougher park for hitters.

Remember, Beltran is also a centre-fielder, and a very good one, so his fielding contributions far surpass whatever Howard can do in the field at first base, the least important defensive position. So while Ryan Howard has the home-run and RBI totals, Beltran mops the floor with him in almost every other aspect.

Beltran, for instance has 36 doubles and 17 steals, to 20 and zero for Howard. Suppose those 33 additional bases he's gained from doubles and steals were redistributed, meaning 11 of his singles were now home runs. Beltran would have 50 homers instead of 39, and would have 120-125 RBI. Would there be any MVP debate then?

Howard may end up winning, but Beltran has been better, and it's worth noting that he's a big reason for the Mets turning the NL East race into a no-contest. It's just that his excellence is spread across several areas, thus making it hard for the old-media types who are schooled to point out the blatantly obvious.

OTHER BUSINESS

• Steve Simmons in today's Toronto Sun: "Every CFL team should have a full-time scout at Cal State Fullerton, the little-known football program that produced Damon Allen, Mike Pringle and Allen Pitts."
  
  Little-known, indeed: Cal State Fullerton folded its football program in 1992. Don't worry, Mr. Simmons, to err is human, but Wikipedia is divine.
• The feeling when the the Quebec University Football League preview was written was that the Laval Rouge et Or would have the early jump, but the rival Montréal Carabins would overtake them at the end of the season. Well, as of this writing, Montréal had Laval reeling early in the second half, but Laval leads 25-21 late in the fourth quarter.
  
  If Montréal should come back, it would be interesting to see who takes over the No. 1 spot in next week's poll (Saskatchewan or Montréal), and whether the Ottawa Gee-Gees overtake Laval for the No. 3 spot.
• Note to readers: Yours truly is beginning two weeks' vacation tomorrow, which means posting may be a bit irregular. However, there will be a live blog of tomorrow's Washington-Vikings Monday nighter (7 p.m. EDT kickoff).

That's all for now. Send your thoughts to neatesager@yahoo.ca.