PLAYOFFS? PLAYOFFS?! THE SENS ARE SO ON THE RADAR SCREEN

No one in Ottawa wants any reminder of how much currency a great regular season can have in the Stanley Cup playoffs.

All season long in Ottawa, the catchphrase with the Sens has been "we're flying under the radar screen," since the Buffalo Sabres cruised to the Northeast Division title and home ice through to the Eastern final. You hear it on TV from Homer Gord, you hear it on the radio and you hear it from the Sens fans who wouldn't be able to find their nose in front of their face without the homers in the local media.

Sorry to burst the Be Red bubble, but the Senators were just as dominant in this season as in the past. Ottawa is still an overdog odds-on favourite to reach the Stanley Cup final. Just as in 2006 -- all together now, Jason Pominville! -- there's no fallback.

Since we don't have puck cred pouring out our ears, our playoff preview has been distilled down to one stat. Well, two actually. The problem with the NHL regular season is that its meaning is obscured in the Wonderful World of Gary Bettman, which has undermined the sport's "competitive integrity" (in the words of mc79hockey with its parity scheduling, the shootout and 4-on-4 overtime.

So -- and this by no means a fully developed analysis -- we've thrown out the overtime records and used each's team real record (real W-L) and true goal differential (real GF/GA) to forecast how it might shake out over the next two weeks. For those of you who can do math, Tom Tibbetts of Diamond Mind Baseball wrote an article explaining how the regular-season records can be used to predict post-season outcomes, round by round. It also explains the equation Bill James developed to calculate the likelihood of the team with the better record winning a particular game, and how the numbers can be crunched to predict the odds of who's going to win the whole schebangabang. However, keep sight of the fact Tippett's article is titled, "May the best team win ... at least some of the time."

Our analysis, half-baked and overly simplified, shows that the Senators are Eastern Conference favourites, just like last season. It also shows the high seeds with the goalies who were childhood neighbours -- Roberto Luongo's Vancouver Canucks and Martin Brodeur's New Jersey Devils -- lucked out big-time with their first-round matchups.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

(5) PITTSBURGH vs. (4) OTTAWA
Penguins real W-L: 31-24, .564 winning percentage. Real GF/GA: +26
Senators real W-L: 44-25, .638 WP (best in the East). Real GF/GA: +72 (also best in the East)
The equation in that Tippett article gives the Sens a 57.7% likelihood of beating the Pens in a given game -- which seems high considering Ottawa finished only one point ahead in the standings. Sidney Crosby's first sortie into the post-season, the Penguins winning the Gary Roberts sweepstakes at the trade deadline and the playoff tank jobs which hang over the Sens like Banquo's ghost make this a marquee matchup. However, the numbers don't point to it going seven games. Prediction: Sens in 6, if Marc-Andre Fleury plays well.

(6) N.Y. RANGERS vs. (3) ATLANTA
Rangers real W-L: 30-30, .500 WP. Real GF/GA: +24
Thrashers real W-L: 29-28, .509 WP. Real GF/GA: minus-2
The Thrashers shouldn't be slagged for being from the South -- they should be slagged since they are a weak No. 3 seed who was actually outscored on the season. The wild card for New York is Henrik Lundqvist in goal, but the Rangers are the better team. Prediction: New York in 7.

(7) TAMPA BAY vs. (2) NEW JERSEY
Lightning real W-L: 29-33, .468 WP. Real GF/GA: minus-8
Devils real W-L: 36-24, .600 WP. Real GF/GA: +9
How lucky is Jersey that it held off Pittsburgh to keep the No. 2 seed and face the limpass Lightning? Very lucky. The Devils will be gone in Round 2. Prediction: New Jersey in 5.

(8) N.Y. ISLANDERS vs. (1) BUFFALO
Islanders real W-L: 30-30, .500 WP. Real GF/GA: +9
Sabres real W-L: 38-22, .633 WP. Real GF/GA: +58
It's every bit a mismatch. Prediction: Buffalo in 4.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

(5) SAN JOSE vs. (4) NASHVILLE
Sharks real W-L: 48-26, .649 WP. Real GF/GA: +61 (best in the West)
Predators real W-L: 42-23, .646 WP. Real GF/GA: +59
This exercise doesn't fully account for trade-deadline pickups such as Peter Forsberg, but his experience is balanced out by the Predators' record being inflated by playing in the craptacular Central Division. Their Real W-L is about as trustworthy as the income statements for Don Corleone's olive-oil import business. The Sharks have a better strength-of-schedule, and just like last year, it won't be surprise when San Jose knocks off Nashville. Prediction: San Jose in 6.

(6) DALLAS vs. (3) VANCOUVER
Stars real W-L: 35-25, .583 WP. Real GF/GA: +21.
Canucks real W-L: 32-26, .552 WP. Real GF/GA: +11.
How's this for a coincidence? When you throw out overtime and shootouts and the goals credited in shootouts, the Canucks and Devils each allowed 194. Prediction: Dallas in 7 -- with Mike Smith, the goalie-man from Verona, probably playing a significant role.

(7) MINNESOTA vs. (2) ANAHEIM
Wild real W-L: 32-26, .552 WP. Real GF/GA: +36
Ducks real W-L: 39-20, .661 WP (best in the West). Real GF/GA: +55
Keep in mind that the Ducks played without Chris Pronger for much of the regular season; the Wild are somewhat underrated since they don't get a lot of media attention — remember who Dwayne Roloson was given no credit for his accomplishments there when he came to Edmonton last season? Prediction: Anaheim in 6.

(8) CALGARY vs. (1) DETROIT
Red Wings real W-L: 45-19, .703 WP Real GF/GA: +63
Flames real W-L: 38-24, .613 WP Real GF/GA: +37
Ignore, for now, the Flames' league-worst nine road wins and their late-season slump. Detroit only gets one extra home game, so if the Flames eke out a split in the first two, it's on. The Flames log more miles travelling and play in a tougher division than the Red Wings, yet come out ahead when you set aside the teams' divisional records from games that were decided in the regulation 60 minutes. The Red Wings were 25-15 (.625 winning percentage) in such games while the Flames went 23-12 (.657). The more you look at it, the more you realize the aging Red Wings are propped up by being the most centrally located team in the Central Division. That's why they eat it in the playoffs. Prediction: Calgary in 7.

Again, this is an oversimplification. This doesn't fully reflect past track records, coaching, special teams, injuries, experience and inexperience, who's coming in on a high, who dragged ass over the last month of the regular season (looking at you, Calgary). What this exercise should do is provide one hard-and-fast way to predict the first round of the playoffs — and avoid being so shocked when a high seed bites the dust, which happens every spring.

That's all for now. Send your thoughts to neatesager@yahoo.ca.