(Next preview: Ontario.)
Just so you know, the last time the CIS national football semifinals didn't involve one or more of the Saskatchewan Huskies, Laval Rouge et Or or Saint Mary's Huskies was 1997. It's been eight straight years of seeing one of those teams playing in late November.
You have to understand that this ends now, if for nothing else than change for the sake of change. So what if the U of S Huskies are almost a lock to win their conference and play for the Vanier Cup in front of their own fans?
It's pretty much an inviolable law of Canada West football that nothing ever goes the way it should, and some team's dream season will usually get vapourized in a freak sleet storm that turns their field into a skating rink. It's pretty much mandatory.
So, something is going to happen that prevents the U of S from playing for the national championship in its own backyard. Saskatchewan, the Roy Shivers debacle aside, is having it way too good lately, what with its booming economy, its status as a "have" province and the popularity of Corner Gas. When you start letting a blogger trade his way up from a red paper-clip to a home in one of your fine towns, you are tempting fate. So let it be said that the Huskies will be at the Vanier Cup, but only as spectators.
Disaster may loom for the Huskies, or whoever the West champ may be, when they travel to Ontario for the Mitchell Bowl national semifinal on Nov. 18. Or not.
(Just a note to readers: "Make Or Break" refers to the games on each team's schedule that will go a long way toward determining the course of their season.)
SIMON FRASER CLAN'05 Record: 0-8
Reason For Being: To ensure UBC never goes winless.
Opener: Sept. 8 against Manitoba
Make Or Break: Oct. 28 at Calgary
Outlook: Prognosis Negative. A 2-6 record would be an achievement.
Season previews are generally written in code. Say you have a new coach talking about how he's trying to instill a new attitude and shake up a roster of lazy, complacent athletes -- which is pretty much the theme coming out of SFU, now under new coach Frank Boehres. It pretty much means.
We have sucked, and probably will continue sucking for some time, but at least we're not doing it with the same guys.
Boehres has a major reconstruction job on his hands -- the Clan has fallen a long way since winning an unlikely Hardy Trophy in 2003. Quarterback Jason Marshall put up decent stats amid all the losing in '05, but with four new O-linemen and a new featured back, he doesn't have a lot of support around him.
The Clan could improve, though, all the way to 2-6. Put them down for a win in one of their games against UBC, and against either Calgary or Regina.
UBC THUNDERBIRDS'05 Record: 4-5 (lost to U of S in semi-final)
Reason for being here: To be the divider between the wheat and the chaff, mostly.
Opener: Today vs. Calgary
Make Or Break: Sept. 16 at Alberta and Sept. 23 at Saskatchewan -- the conference heavyweights, back to back, on the road. Good luck with that.
Outlook: Wants to run with the big dogs. Emphasis on wants to. Good for a playoff spot and a few shootouts, though.
The T-Birds' success probably hinges on whether or not they can match up physically with Alberta and Saskatchewan. There's a fair bit of offensive talent, from senior QB Blake Smelser, to running backs Chris Ciezki and Derek Townsend, who will have an experienced O-line blocking for them. Three receivers are gone from last year but you can't say there isn't experience there -- not with newcomer Kyle Wolfe, a 29-year-old grad student.
UBC and first-year coach Ted Goveia are hoping it can go 6-2 and be a legit contender in a tough conference, but it had a lot of losses on defence. Konrad Wasiela and C.J. Stephenson are a pair of very good defensive backs, but they'll be facing a lot of situations where the quarterback has all day to wait for receivers to get open.
This won't be a boring team, though, and it could throw a scare into Alberta should they happen to meet in the playoffs.
ALBERTA GOLDEN BEARS'05 Record: 8-2, lost to Saskatchewan in final
Reason for being: To keep the U of A humble, since it regularly celebrates national championships in other sports but hasn't won a league title in football since '81. (Albertans being humble about anything is no mean feat. Just kidding.)
Opener: Today vs. Saskatchewan
Make Or Break: Sept. 23 at Manitoba, Oct. 21 vs. Saskatchwan
Outlook: It would be a wicked burn to have Alberta play in the Vanier Cup on Saskatchewan's home field, using Saskatchewan's locker room, now wouldn't it?
The Golden Bears may illustrate the gap between how the media plays CIS football and how it's perceived among the cultists (guilty as charged).
This isn't meant as a slam, but it seems the media, when they do something on CIS football, start with a) who won last year and b) what star quarterback/running back has graduated? Anything you read about Alberta will inevitably mention that QB Darryl Salmon and tailback Jerred Winkel are gone, along with the team's top two receivers and sacks leader. So last season must have been the best kick at the cat Alberta is going to have for a while, eh?
Not necessarily. If you were handicapping Can West you'd still give Saskatchewan about a 60% likelihood of winning, with 25% for Alberta and the rest divvied up among UBC, Manitoba and Regina.
The Bears seem to have filled most of the holes in their roster, mostly with reinforcements culled from junior football. The new quarterback, Cam Linke, was a backup for several seasons, so it's not like he has to be taught the offence from scratch. Linke is also playing behind an experienced O-line.
The strength of the defence will probably be the front seven, with Dwayne Kumpula and Derek Krinke playing in front of middle linebacker Danny Bass Jr., one of four Bears whose dads played for the Edmonton Eskimos. That's important, since stopping the run and avoiding too many second-and-shorts will be key to derailing Saskatchewan. The Bears are a solid choice to win Can West, but they're not the solid choice.
CALGARY DINOS'05 Record: 2-6
Reason for being: Kind of the same as Alberta's -- the best Dinos moments have come in another sports of late, although they won the Vanier Cup in '83, '85, '88 and '95.
Opener: Today at UBC.
Make Or Break: Oct. 7 at Regina. It would aid Blake Nill's rebuilding effort if they could win a road game over a good team, and it will come after a bye week.
Outlook: Hard to see them in a playoff game, but just you watch in two or three years' time.
New Dinos coach Blake Nill took Saint Mary's from a single-victory season to a Vanier Cup appearance in just two years, and before that, as defensive co-ordinator at St. FX, he helped restore that program.
It's going to take Nill a little longer. The Dinos return just two starting offensive linemen and have little experience elsewhere, although talented rookie QB Dalin Tollestrup has some serious dropjaw. (Now the other shoe drop: Tollestrup is slated to take a two-year Mormon mission after this season.)
Defensively, losing Dan Federkeil (recently cut by the Indianapolis Colts, who had converted him to offence) leaves a big void. However, the defensive guru Nill will get a lot out of this group, especially fourth-year linebacker David Gruninger.
(Gruninger, in a way, illustrates how far Calgary had fallen. He started at fullback in 2003, then was moved to defence. When starters are being shifted from one side of the ball to the other, that's a sign the program doesn't have any depth.)
So Calgary will have a good defence, which is a plus for the Dinos, since it's probably going to be on the field for two-thirds of the game.
REGINA RAMS'05 Record: 3-5
Reason for being: You can't let U of S have all the good players in the province.
Opener: Today vs. Manitoba
Make Or Break: Sept. 29 at UBC, Oct. 21 at Manitoba
Outlook: They score a lot, but so do their opponents. Maybe they should ask to join the Ontario conference.
Like Rachel McAdams' character said to Owen Wilson in Wedding Crashers, "You're not that young." The Rams played younger players for the past two years, so any success they had was treated as a bonus. They damn near made the playoffs last year, except for one tiny detail -- they went winless at home. No fooling.
Teale Orban is the leading returning passer in Can West, and has his top three receivers coming back. Ex-Ottawa Gee-Gee Derek Belvedere, after a year playing in France, has resurfaced as the Rams' primary running back. As for the defence, uh, better you don't ask.
SASKATCHEWAN HUSKIES'05 Record: 11-1, lost to Laurier in the Vanier Cup
Reason for being here: Saskatchewan has to have at least one football team that can win something, eh.
Opener: Today vs. Alberta
Make Or Break: That likely won't come until the second weekend of November.
Outlook: Likely to lose no more than one regular-season game on the road to a fourth Vanier Cup appearance in five seasons.
Probably the easiest team to fit in a box. They're good, damn good, and if a key guy goes down, someone else will step up. This is the team that once lost seven tailbacks in one season to injuries and barely missed a beat.
First-year starting quarterback Bret Thompson, led the Saskatchewan Hilltoppers to three straight national junior championships, meaning the drop-off should be negligible. For once, though, the U of S's biggest offensive threat is a receiver, Leighton Heron, who's also dangerous on punt returns.
Defensively, same old story. Saskatchewan turned over half its starters, and simply plugged in new guys. Defensive back Dylan Barker very well could be the conference's nominee for the top defensive player in the CIS.
All the signs -- the close losses in the past two Vanier Cups, including to Laurier last season on a last-second field goal; hosting the championship game this year -- point to Saskatchewan being in the big game later this fall. There's no rational reason to say it won't happen.
Oh, and when was the last time a team from Western Canada lost a national playoff game at home? Try 1968, the first year the Vanier Cup playoff system was used. So essentially, never.
MANITOBA BISONS'05 Record: 4-5, lost semifinal to Alberta
Reason for being: Its stadium provides a bit of a bird sanctuary. (Only seven people got that joke.)
First game: Today at Regina
Make Or Break: Sept. 23 vs. Alberta, Oct. 7 at Saskatchewan (comes after a bye week)
Outlook: Their tough road games are at the end of the schedule. Could easily go 6-2.
As befits a team that wears black jerseys, coach Brian Dobie's Bisons are all about defence, with 11 of 12 starters expected to be in the lineup for the opener against rival Regina. Simon Patrick is one of the country's top D-lineman, and end Justin Cooper has been in two CFL training camps. Khari Joseph is a solid cornerback, and hopefully Winnipeggers don't mind too much that his name is way too similar to the reviled former Blue Bombers quarterback.
Offensively, it's a mixed bag. John Makie is tentatively pencilled in as the starting quarterback, but if he struggles, there will be people clamouring to see rookie Nathan Friesen, a Winnipegger, get a chance.
Like Regina, the U of M has a bit of win-now syndrome, but this conference is just too tough.
Predicted order to finish: 7) Simon Fraser 6) Calgary 5) Regina 4) UBC 3) Manitoba 2) Alberta 1) Saskatchewan. Conference champion: Alberta (sure, Sager).
Related: CIS Football Picks, Week 1.
That's all for now. Send your thoughts to neatesager@yahoo.ca.
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