There's no one reason why the Edmonton Oilers, a No. 8 seed, are the only Canadian team left in the playoffs and the Ottawa Senators, a No. 1 seed, have packed up and gone home.
But if there's one great comparison that can be drawn, it's the goalies: Dwayne Roloson versus Ray Emery.
Roloson is not necessarily Edmonton's playoff MVP, just as you can easily reject the argument that Emery was the culprit for Ottawa's loss.
But it all comes back to confidence. A goalie is a catalyst. It's similar to football, where teams make plays for some quarterbacks and fumble and drop passes for others, or how a baseball team hits and fields better for a certain pitcher. They feel, Hey, we can win with this guy.
The Senators committed all sorts of gaffes against Buffalo and hung Emery out to dry a number of times. It wasn't his fault alone.
But were those mistakes borne out of self-doubt caused by not having faith in their goalie? Is the Oilers' confidence runneth over now because they believe that Roloson gives them a good chance to win every game? Sure seems like it.
Today, Oilers GM Kevin Lowe looks brilliant for what looked at first like a mortage-the-future deal -- giving up first- and third-round draft choices for a 36-year-old goalie who was 6-16-1 with the Minnesota Wild this season and could sign elsewhere this summer, leaving Edmonton with nothing. Conversely, Lowe's former coach, Sens GM John Muckler, might lose his job because he failed to make a similarly bold move after Dominik Hasek's adductor injury, deciding instead to pin the organization's and the city's Stanley Cup hopes on a rookie goalie.
At least one Ottawa scribe, the Sun's Don Brennan (full disclosure: I do work in a different part of the same newsroom), says fire Muckler, and has made reference to Roloson's success out West.
Fortune favours the brave and it seems Lowe was willing to take the heat if the move didn't work out. Perhaps each franchise's legacy and collective baggage, or lack thereof, plays a part. Lowe could be secure in thinking, We're considered an underdog small-market Canadian team, so if we miss the playoffs or go out in four straight, no biggie. We'll just point to the five Stanley Cup banners.
Ottawa doesn't have that luxury. It's more like, We have to do something big, because our fans are getting antsy. Yes, we aslso have Stanley Cup banners hanging in our arena, but we know we really didn't win those, that was another team with the same name a really, really long time ago.
So they went after Roberto Luongo, then had to fall back on Emery when the rumoured deal for the Florida Panthers goalie and Olli Jokinen didn't work out. If only someone had been there to impart the advice Abraham Simpson once gave his teenaged son Homer: "Don't overreach. Go for the slightly dented model."
Make no mistake, Roloson, was the slightly dented model. His average with Minnesota had ballooned into the 3.00 range after being a tidy 1.88 in the last "old NHL" season of '03-04. You can just hear the armchair GMs in Barrhaven and Vanier now: We gave up (insert what Ottawa gave up) for an old goalie who can't play in the new NHL?
Ottawa's pursuit of Luongo was doomed from the start, because it ran counter to the so-called Senators philosophy. Last night, team president Roy Mlaker was on TSN's Off The Record and pointed out the Sens had 16 players they drafted in their lineup, more than any other team, and that they generally aren't willing to part with players they've invested time and money in.
Fine. That's great for year-to-year stability. If you want to see a franchise that's Exhibit A for what can happen when you don't draft well and stomp on on the few flowers that somehow grow out of a clump of dirt, I'll show you the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Flash back 15 years and switch sports, and the Ottawa philosophy sounds a lot like Toronto during the Blow Jays years, before the World Series titles in 1992 and '93.
The Jays had winning teams with a well-earned rep for gagging that featured players they'd developed themselves or added through crafty acquistions. Pat Gillick, the Genius, was labelled "Stand Pat" for his reluctance to pull the trigger on the big deal. Some of the big trades he did make -- Bill Caudill, anyone? -- flopped.
Ultimately, the Jays finally won it all, after Gillick was willing to be bold -- trading Fred McGriff and Tony Fernandez for Roberto Alomar and Joe Carter; sacrificing a young Jeff Kent to get David Cone for three months, adding Dave Winfield so he could get a World Series ring.
Muckler couldn't, or wouldn't do that. It was Stand-Patness to the nth degree. No matter that only two teams in the past 35 years have won the Cup with a rookie goalie, and that it happened in Montreal with a pair of future Hall of Famers, Kenny Dryden in 1971 and Patrick Roy in '86.
No, Emery wasn't the reason the Sens lost. But when you look at what's gone in Edmonton, it's pretty damning for the Senators organization and the culture around that team.
Roloson provided the missing link for an Oilers team that had awful goaltending for much of the season. So awful, in fact, that after trading for Roli the goalie, the Oilers waived one of their netminders, Mike Morrison ...
... who promptly was picked up by, wait for it, Ottawa, to serve as netminding insurance for Emery. Morrison never saw the ice in the playoffs.
You don't say.
The other irony in all this: if the Senators axe Muckler, will they just promote from within and put untested Peter Chiarelli in the GM's chair? A cautious move to address a guy who was fired for being afraid to make a big move?
It appears Ottawa fans are learning what Leafs fans have long known: there is no justice in this life, only irony.
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