tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16538424.post4362744277852058871..comments2024-02-29T23:31:03.341-05:00Comments on Out Of Left Field: Bye-bye Burnett?sagerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08757652892056684490noreply@blogger.comBlogger20125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16538424.post-3782904084467541402008-06-18T13:19:00.000-04:002008-06-18T13:19:00.000-04:00I dinna cry when me own father was hung for steali...I dinna cry when me own father was hung for stealin' a pig. But I'll cry now.sagerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08757652892056684490noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16538424.post-66316079100070519162008-06-18T09:58:00.000-04:002008-06-18T09:58:00.000-04:00I think i'm going to be sickI think i'm going to be sickAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16538424.post-19423318823878347822008-06-17T21:13:00.000-04:002008-06-17T21:13:00.000-04:00Completing a pass after a blocked field goal?Completing a pass after a blocked field goal?sagerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08757652892056684490noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16538424.post-50329717667811683712008-06-17T20:39:00.000-04:002008-06-17T20:39:00.000-04:00Missed PAT....................Missed PAT....................Duane Rollinshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16512076277116230020noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16538424.post-82554290308416486102008-06-17T19:24:00.000-04:002008-06-17T19:24:00.000-04:00Maybe we should cut this short ... I have nothin' ...Maybe we should cut this short ... I have nothin' but bad memories when it comes to Queen's-Laurier football games.sagerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08757652892056684490noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16538424.post-66684813941451085932008-06-17T19:03:00.000-04:002008-06-17T19:03:00.000-04:00If by that you mean right, then yes, I am. :PIf by that you mean right, then yes, I am. :PTyler Kinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05837449412824159700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16538424.post-32244422010270818562008-06-17T17:46:00.000-04:002008-06-17T17:46:00.000-04:00Oh for the love of God. You are a Queen's guy, are...Oh for the love of God. You are a Queen's guy, aren't you?Duane Rollinshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16512076277116230020noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16538424.post-17095194502967180622008-06-17T17:37:00.000-04:002008-06-17T17:37:00.000-04:00Okay, again, you're making the argument that "if a...Okay, again, you're making the argument that "if a trade makes your team better, you should accept it".<BR/><BR/>That's not exactly a shocking revelation produced by insightful blogging. It's a truism.Tyler Kinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05837449412824159700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16538424.post-25036967109724447352008-06-17T17:03:00.000-04:002008-06-17T17:03:00.000-04:00@ NeateYou may well be right. The two draft picks ...@ Neate<BR/><BR/>You may well be right. The two draft picks may be better than any package that the Jays can get for Burnett now. Clearly, any potential deal has to be weighed against those two picks.<BR/><BR/>@ Tyler<BR/><BR/>No one is making the argument that the picture that replaces Burnett in the rotation will be better. No one. What I'm suggesting is that a drop in quality in the rotation could be worth it if the position player that comes in brings enough to off-set that loss. Does that mean a No. 4? I doubt it, but as you say Burnett has "great stuff" so you never know what you're going to get for him until you start to shop him, Which is all I'm really arguing for. We all know what this team needs. We all pretty much assume Burnett is gone at the end of the year. It's time to start preparing for that--using the two draft picks they will be guaranteed as the measuring stick. If you can get a package better that that, you take it. If not you don't.<BR/><BR/>It's hardly a "ludicrous" idea (or whatever other colourful way you might choose to attack it) to prepare for Burnett's departure.Duane Rollinshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16512076277116230020noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16538424.post-30917629024668008692008-06-17T16:25:00.000-04:002008-06-17T16:25:00.000-04:00The Jays are better off riding this out, letting B...The Jays are better off riding this out, letting Burnett walk and taking the "sandwich picks."<BR/><BR/>Griffin has it wrong to say Ricciardi wouldn't do that, because Ricciardi is not a panicker, for good or ill.sagerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08757652892056684490noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16538424.post-2212027495336382992008-06-17T16:08:00.000-04:002008-06-17T16:08:00.000-04:00"A bat?" What kind? A mediocre one? In which case ..."A bat?" What kind? A mediocre one? In which case it's a bad trade. Or a good cleanup one? In which case it's not going to happen (for reasons explained several times already).<BR/><BR/>You want a reason why they're better off with Burnett - because he's a terrific pitcher, and far, FAR better than David Purcey or John Parrish, who would replace him if he were gone. And no, that's not subjective. Nobody outside of an insane asylum thinks either Purcey or Parrish is a better option.<BR/><BR/>Plus, keeping AJ on til the end of the season means you get compensatory draft picks. Far better than unloading him for the first bat you can find.Tyler Kinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05837449412824159700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16538424.post-40542800025396427232008-06-17T15:47:00.000-04:002008-06-17T15:47:00.000-04:00Tyler,If the Jays can get a bat for him, they woul...Tyler,<BR/><BR/><I>If the Jays can get a bat for him, they would, frankly, be insane not to jump at the chance.</I><BR/><BR/>That's the last line of the OP. Thus, my argument has been consistent throughout. If JP allows a team to negotiate with Burnett it may be possible to move him for value. <BR/><BR/>And, I've yet to see you make an non-subjective argument for why the Jays are better off with Burnett.Duane Rollinshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16512076277116230020noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16538424.post-88121266528978522292008-06-17T15:34:00.000-04:002008-06-17T15:34:00.000-04:00Come on Duane - don't try and deflect it by saying...Come on Duane - don't try and deflect it by saying your real argument was just that if you could get an amazing bat he should be moved. Arguing a truism doesn't make your analysis correct.<BR/><BR/>Who on earth is going to say that if you can get a great return on a trade, you shouldn't do it?<BR/><BR/>But the point is that this scenario you're so gung ho about is massively improbable. The only teams that are going to take a one-year pitcher are contenders. Contenders don't trade away good, starting caliber bats.<BR/><BR/>Your argument is like saying "If someone offers you a million dollars for nothing, I strongly suggest you take it." Maybe it's good advice... but it's so improbable as to be kinda irrelevant.Tyler Kinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05837449412824159700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16538424.post-50546166358598461862008-06-17T14:13:00.000-04:002008-06-17T14:13:00.000-04:00If you could trade him for someone who is worth 55...If you could trade him for someone who is worth 55 million at the plate... why not? <BR/>Yes Burnett is good, but you can only use him once every 5 games, where a good batter plays every day.<BR/><BR/><BR/><BR/>Its not as though the Jays have a limited pitching staff. Last i checked their pitchers are whats keeping them near .500Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16538424.post-35109275863979980732008-06-17T13:59:00.000-04:002008-06-17T13:59:00.000-04:00It's also pretty unanimous that Burnett's great st...It's also pretty unanimous that Burnett's great stuff comes and goes and that he has as many crap starts as he has un-hittable starts. <BR/><BR/>Clearly, there is no perfect statistical analysis that will take into account all that goes into pitching. WHIP is a pretty good one, however, as it speaks to the basic currency of run creation--base runners. <BR/><BR/>If you want to talk about absurd examples look at your's above. The probability of a pitcher that is allowing a solo home run an inning through seven is exceptionally slim. Statistically speaking such a player, if he existed, would be an outlyer. It should also be noted that your pitcher B threw about 175 pitches in your hypothetical example. The dude ain't making it through seven giving up two hits per inning.<BR/><BR/>So, the answer to your question is neither. There is no way in hell that either player is going to be useful to you.<BR/><BR/>You are also either willfully or obliviously (I'm honestly not sure which) ignoring a key part of my (and everyone else arguing the same point) argument. We're saying he should be moved **if** a valuable offensive piece can be obtained--that it would be better to put another bat in the line-up, even if the position player is slightly less talented than Burnett in relative terms. You are consistently deflecting the argument back to "But, AJ is good" when what is being argued is "we need a bat more than we need AJ"Duane Rollinshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16512076277116230020noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16538424.post-53322405195033793472008-06-17T13:54:00.000-04:002008-06-17T13:54:00.000-04:00Pitcher A goes 7 innings, and gives up 7 solo home...<I>Pitcher A goes 7 innings, and gives up 7 solo home runs. He has given up 7 runs. His WHIP is 1.00<BR/><BR/>Pitcher B goes 7 innings, and gives up 14 hits, all singles, two per inning. He has given up 0 runs. His WHIP is 2.00</I><BR/><BR/>There's no one tell-all stat, but it's better than using a hypothetical anomaly to try and make a serious argument.<BR/><BR/>Now, can you believe a writer at <A HREF="http://blog.macleans.ca/2008/06/17/as-the-clubhouse-turns/" REL="nofollow"><I>Maclean's</I></A> called Richard Griffin "Toronto's best baseball analyst?" <BR/><BR/>He obviously doesn't read Blair or Elliott, listen to Wilner, or chat face-to-face with sentient human beings much.sagerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08757652892056684490noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16538424.post-28802566214759040492008-06-17T13:15:00.000-04:002008-06-17T13:15:00.000-04:00If we really must go over why you can't judge a pl...If we really must go over why you can't judge a player on WHIP alone (and by extension on any single stat alone, ever)...<BR/><BR/>Pitcher A goes 7 innings, and gives up 7 solo home runs. He has given up 7 runs. His WHIP is 1.00<BR/><BR/>Pitcher B goes 7 innings, and gives up 14 hits, all singles, two per inning. He has given up 0 runs. His WHIP is 2.00<BR/><BR/>Which pitcher would you rather have on your staff?Tyler Kinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05837449412824159700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16538424.post-55695458117639550182008-06-17T13:11:00.000-04:002008-06-17T13:11:00.000-04:00Don't put quotes around "great stuff" as though it...Don't put quotes around "great stuff" as though it's some abstract, emotional judgement. It's pretty unanimous when it comes to Burnett.Tyler Kinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05837449412824159700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16538424.post-50609528528064808632008-06-17T12:59:00.000-04:002008-06-17T12:59:00.000-04:00That would be a better come back than telling me a...That would be a better come back than telling me about his "great stuff," yes.Duane Rollinshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16512076277116230020noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16538424.post-64539237770594605452008-06-17T12:53:00.000-04:002008-06-17T12:53:00.000-04:00Okay, so on one hand AJ Burnett is terrible, incon...Okay, so on one hand AJ Burnett is terrible, inconsistent, and no better than a #5 starter on any other team. (For god's sake I wish you'd stop assuming 14 starts is an indication of a starter's skill but I'll drop that for now)<BR/><BR/>On the other hand you honestly think other teams would give up the bat the Jays need in exchange for a pitcher who'd be gone at the end of the year?<BR/><BR/>The only teams that can take a contract like that are contenders - the very type of team who aren't going to give up the kind of cleanup hitter the Jays need.<BR/><BR/>Should I even spend the time required to explain why having a better WHIP does not automatically mean you have "better numbers" than another pitcher?Tyler Kinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05837449412824159700noreply@blogger.com